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Is Adrian Beltre a HOF?


calmunderfire

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I think he should be in even if he retires this year but he might not ever make it. He currently ranks 108 in career WAR which is tied with Pudge Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez, and ahead of Eddie Murray, Ernie Banks and Ryne Sandberg.

What might hold him back is that the counting numbers just aren't terribly impressive yet. Career AVG of .281 (meh), 366 career homers (meh), 2300 hits (meh), 5 GG's and 1 top five MVP vote (double Meh). The typical voters will probably pass him over but those that value defense and take the offensive numbers in Seattle with the right perspective will probably vote for him.

Those 5 years in Safeco, though, might end up destroying his HOF chances though in reality.

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I think he should be in even if he retires this year but he might not ever make it. He currently ranks 108 in career WAR which is tied with Pudge Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez, and ahead of Eddie Murray, Ernie Banks and Ryne Sandberg.

What might hold him back is that the counting numbers just aren't terribly impressive yet. Career AVG of .281 (meh), 366 career homers (meh), 2300 hits (meh), 5 GG's and 1 top five MVP vote (double Meh). The typical voters will probably pass him over but those that value defense and take the offensive numbers in Seattle with the right perspective will probably vote for him.

Those 5 years in Safeco, though, might end up destroying his HOF chances though in reality.

There is also no way to tell what the eventual impact of the "steroid era" will have on the Hall of Fame. A huge backlog of otherwise worthy candidates is starting to form and someone like Beltre could get lost in it.

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He should make it fairly easy I think. He's been slowed up by some hamstring issues the past few years but I still think he's got an easy 3-4 years left in him which should be plenty to put him over the top.

As of right now he's a borderline candidate I would assume. Just trying to enter the voters mind. What could work against him is he was prone to down years, but at the same time had all time great seasons. Really ridiculous years. Defense and positional value don't get the recognition they should.

Couple more years and I think he definitely makes it. With 2800 hits and exceeding 400 home runs I don't see how he misses it.

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As of right now he's a borderline candidate I would assume. Just trying to enter the voters mind. What could work against him is he was prone to down years, but at the same time had all time great seasons. Really ridiculous years. Defense and positional value don't get the recognition they should.

Couple more years and I think he definitely makes it. With 2800 hits and exceeding 400 home runs I don't see how he misses it.

Yeah, I agree and I think (barring injury) he has several more years in him. though his defense is not what it used to be. Guy has amazing bat speed.

He got screwed in SEA. It's just tough to hit there. Even then it was much tougher on RH power hitters than LH power hitters. He has talked previously about how it messed up his swing as he would just try and hit the ball extra hard to get it out. The fact that the OPS+/wRC+ stats are so far out of whack over the last 4 years as compared to his years in SEA show that he really took it in the shorts there.

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I think he should be in even if he retires this year but he might not ever make it. He currently ranks 108 in career WAR which is tied with Pudge Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez, and ahead of Eddie Murray, Ernie Banks and Ryne Sandberg.

What might hold him back is that the counting numbers just aren't terribly impressive yet. Career AVG of .281 (meh), 366 career homers (meh), 2300 hits (meh), 5 GG's and 1 top five MVP vote (double Meh). The typical voters will probably pass him over but those that value defense and take the offensive numbers in Seattle with the right perspective will probably vote for him.

Those 5 years in Safeco, though, might end up destroying his HOF chances though in reality.

It's not just SafeCo: He also played some years in Dodger Stadium, another black hole for offensive numbers.

He should be in though, especially if he has another 4-5 years or so of productive seasons.

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Yeah, I agree and I think (barring injury) he has several more years in him. though his defense is not what it used to be. Guy has amazing bat speed.

He got screwed in SEA. It's just tough to hit there. Even then it was much tougher on RH power hitters than LH power hitters. He has talked previously about how it messed up his swing as he would just try and hit the ball extra hard to get it out. The fact that the OPS+/wRC+ stats are so far out of whack over the last 4 years as compared to his years in SEA show that he really took it in the shorts there.

He took it in the shorts in more ways than one... :scratchchinhmm:

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Beltre will be an interesting hof candidate. He can't retire now and have a shot. But he is in the borderline category. Likely to be the best 3b of his generation and that really helps him.

But be needs to on up some numbers the next few years and longevity may be necessary.

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He's clearly into the career value totals that would make him almost guaranteed. His career is already more than twice as valuable as the least-deserving HOFers.

But, most of his value is defensive and some defense-first players get overlooked.

He has the disadvantage of being in the modern era where there are many more qualified players, so standards will and are going up.

He's had some huge years, but they're spread out which tends to minimize their impact on fans/voters.

He's played in some big pitcher's parks, which has held down his raw numbers.

He's played in an era where people are increasingly knowledgable, and pretty readily adjust for context, which helps him a lot.

He has played in an era where PED use and suspected PED use and rumors that players once knew some guy in 11th grade geometry who once took 'roids have thrown almost all candidates into a huge blender, and nobody has any idea what things will look like in 10 or 15 or 20 years.

So... nobody knows, but by the most rational standards he should be a HOFer.

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