Jump to content

Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?


Barnaby Graves

Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?

    • Yes
      41
    • No
      36

This poll is closed to new votes


Recommended Posts

If a relief pitcher is leading the league is save chances, then I would expect that pitcher to be leading the league in saves.

This may be contrarian, but you envision a scenario where a four or five guys all had between 45 and 50 save chances. The guy who was leading in saves might have had more 3-run-lead, 1-inning saves, while the guy who was several behind the leader had a disproportionate number of tough saves and was actually the better pitcher.

(Insert disclaimer about saves being silly)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 92
  • Created
  • Last Reply
As much as it would have stung I was hoping we would trade him after last season. I certainly hope he is traded this offseason. Someone has to think he has good value at $7-9 million, right? I'm just not a believer in big contracts for relief pitchers. I'd just as soon spend Johnson's salary elsewhere and let Hunter/O'Day/Matusz close games.

Just so long as there's a plan to backfill the other end of the pen with a quality arm. And you're willing to take very little back for Johnson (or non-tender him) since he'll have little surplus value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This may be contrarian, but you envision a scenario where a four or five guys all had between 45 and 50 save chances. The guy who was leading in saves might have had more 3-run-lead, 1-inning saves, while the guy who was several behind the leader had a disproportionate number of tough saves and was actually the better pitcher.

(Insert disclaimer about saves being silly)

Of course that could happen. I was speaking in general terms. Don't expect me to be impressed if a pitcher is leading the league in both saves and save chances.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just so long as there's a plan to backfill the other end of the pen with a quality arm. And you're willing to take very little back for Johnson (or non-tender him) since he'll have little surplus value.

I completely agree that if you move someone on the team into the closer role and trade/nontender Johnson, you have to consider who is going to fill his ~70 innings and do a good job. I do think JJ has more trade value than you suspect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tend to think you can backfill for $2-3MM or less if you get lucky. There also could be options in the minors. I certainly don't want to go cheap.

I think Johnson has some trade value. Some team has to value his production highly. And of course any trade is better than non-tendering him. Not only do you get something back you have control over where he ends up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tend to think you can backfill for $2-3MM or less if you get lucky. There also could be options in the minors. I certainly don't want to go cheap.

I think Johnson has some trade value. Some team has to value his production highly. And of course any trade is better than non-tendering him. Not only do you get something back you have control over where he ends up.

Its not easy to back fill.

Johnson has trade value for that exact reason.

Closers are not easy to come by.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This may be contrarian, but you envision a scenario where a four or five guys all had between 45 and 50 save chances. The guy who was leading in saves might have had more 3-run-lead, 1-inning saves, while the guy who was several behind the leader had a disproportionate number of tough saves and was actually the better pitcher.

(Insert disclaimer about saves being silly)

Absolutely correct. Two years ago, I looked at all AL closers and computed the following:

Save rate on one-run saves was about 75%

Save rate on two-run saves was about 91%

Save rate on three-run saves was about 98%

In terms of the average "mix" for a closer, it was 43% one-run save opportunities, 32% two-run, and 25% three runs. Gregg, on the other hand, had a very tough mix: 59% one-run, 28% two-run, 14% three run.

This year, JJ is 10 for 17 in one run saves (59%), 15 for 16 in two-run saves (93%) and 17 for 18 in three-run saves (95%). His "mix" has been 33% one-run opportunities, 31% two-run opportunities, and 35% three-run opportunities. At least according to the data I assembled in 2011 (not necessarily identical for 2013), his mix has been a little easier than is typical. An average closer with his mix should have about 6 blown saves based on the 2011 data I collected. Clearly, he has been a well below average closer in 2013.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I completely agree that if you move someone on the team into the closer role and trade/nontender Johnson, you have to consider who is going to fill his ~70 innings and do a good job. I do think JJ has more trade value than you suspect.

Yep, and how much would it cost to get someone of JJ's caliber to replace him. Koji just had his option vest, so he won't be available (I only mention him because I think he'd come here at a bit of a discount).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I completely agree that if you move someone on the team into the closer role and trade/nontender Johnson, you have to consider who is going to fill his ~70 innings and do a good job. I do think JJ has more trade value than you suspect.

I suspect he has just as much trade value as I suspect. :)

The guy is going to get maybe $7M in arb, but his upside, if completely rebounds, is a ~2 win player. There's just not a lot of room for excess value there. I'll be impressed if they get much more than a single grade B prospect for him, and don't ask me for names...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its not easy to back fill.

Johnson has trade value for that exact reason.

Closers are not easy to come by.

Dennis Eckersley, who has some level of experience in the role, thinks otherwise:

“You can find somebody to do it,” Eckersley said. “You could groom somebody to do it who’s on the staff, if you manage it the right way. I mean, think about it: the tougher job is to come in with guys on base, because he’s got to be quicker to the plate and he has to hold runners on.”
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its not easy to back fill.

Johnson has trade value for that exact reason.

Closers are not easy to come by.

Putting together a playoff caliber team isn't easy. I have faith in our front office to fill the void.

Two points. I think Hunter/O'Day could have been just as good as Johnson as a closer the past two years. I highly doubt Johnson is here beyond next year, so why not try to trade him while he has value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Putting together a playoff caliber team isn't easy. I have faith in our front office to fill the void.

Two points. I think Hunter/O'Day could have been just as good as Johnson as a closer the past two years. I highly doubt Johnson is here beyond next year, so why not try to trade him while he has value.

Hunter and O'Day have been very good, but they have thrown some clunkers and cost ball games, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • Cool, nice work there.   So? Are we owed a large market? Does DC not deserve their own team? Should the fans of Baltimore just become Redskins fans and not tried to get their own team when the Colts left?  (sorry to bring up football again but come on, that fits). I laid it all out a couple months ago, MLB has more teams bringing home the hunk of metal than other sports since 2000.  The competitive balance is fine.  It's harder?  Yea?  OK it's harder.
    • The Cowboys have an owner with deep pockets. I agree 100% … There is some cap manipulation that happens. At the end of the day they have a $255 million limit they are required to operate under. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc can decide each year how much they want to add to the luxury tax fund as opposed to not being able to fit a potential move under the cap. Here are the 2024 payrolls for the NFL and MLB   https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/04/03/mlb-team-payrolls-2024-highest-lowest-mets/73139425007/ Highest $305 million vs $60 million  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/_/year/2024/sort/cap_maximum_space Highest $259.5 million vs $217 million these numbers will likely get tighter once they make additions before the trade deadline.  If you can’t see the difference I’m just wasting my time. The biggest driving force in MLB beyond the ability of some to spend lavishly is the tv markets. The club controls so much of their tv revenue that it’s an unfair game. The moved that created the Orioles didn’t have much of an effect on the Senators tv market which was likely nonexistent then. Plus MLB is allowing contract manipulation like Othani’s contract. Instead of $700 divided by length 10 years, Somehow he only counts as like $46 million which is laughable. Plus they are paying $85 million in luxury tax fees in 2024.    The Orioles were a large market team when the Expos moved to DC. They could afford to spend with the Yankees, Red Sox , and Blue Jays. Could the Orioles afford to pay $85 million in luxury tax fees? Could the Yankees? I know the answer to both.  What grounds ? Who cares ? The impact was astronomical …It made it very difficult to compete in the AL East without tank a thon! It split their tv market in half. Obviously MLB papered over that long enough to get an agreement done.    They turned a large market team into 2 small/mid market teams. The Orioles and Nationals payrolls combined place them only 11th in baseball. Obviously they could afford to spend more. But it’s doubtful either will ever be top 10 for more than a season  or two as they try to hang onto a window.     
    • Thanks for the detailed explanation of all of the issues.  Sounds like a mess.
    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...