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Long Term Deal for Machado?


TonySoprano

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Manny will be 31 in 10 years. That is too many years of FA for him to give up. He wants the fewest years of FA, against a guarantee for his years under control from injury. You have to meet him in the middle.

Gordo, MM will give up FA years as long as he's compensated fairly, imo. He's an Oriole For Life. He wants to an honored Oriole, like Rip, Brooksie, Eddie, etc. Book it.

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I think maybe the logical place to start an analysis is the contract Dustin Pedroia signed in 2008, after winning the Rookie of the Year award and the MVP award back to back. At that point, with one year remaining before he'd be eligible for arbitration, Pedroia signed for 6 years, $40.5mm plus a club option for a 7th year at $11 mm. There also were some incentive clauses worth a couple million if they kicked in.

That deal was a steal for Boston, and unlike Longoria's original deal, it was reached after Pedroia already had accomplished a lot, though he was still young and had a ton of service time remaining before he could be a free agent.

Although Manny has not won any big awards like Pedroia had, he has established that he has a lot of value. But he also has two more years before he's arbitration eligible. He has to take a pretty big discount for signing now because he is protected from the risk that he suffers a major injury sometime in the next two years. I'd offer him something like 7/$60 mm with two club options at $17.5 mm.

I think it's important to remember that no matter what WAR says, salaries are based largely on offense, and in any event, the defensive component of WAR is volatile and it's very doubtful that Manny will put up defensive stats like this year's consistently.

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If Manny is a FA at 26 how much do you think he gets? He's probably a plus SS with a .290, .340, .500 line and an average of 20 HR and 80 RBI, probably more. I'd say 20M per, so figure 20 M for each year of FA he gives up. What do you think he gets for his 3 years of arb. ? I'd say more than Wieters.

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I think more than looking at player comps you have to consider what his current deal is. the next 2 years he'll make $1 million total. Arbitration he could expect to get in the ballpark of $5, $10, $15. That means he's basically on a 5 year, $30 million dollar deal give or take.

His first 5 free agent years, assuming his offense picks up and his defense declines somewhat, he might be worth $25 per, but that's discounted due to long term uncertainty. His offense is still only sightly above average as the walks and power are lacking.

Say that takes him down to $18 million. 5*18 is $90, plus the arbitration and team control money leaves us around 10/120. I think that's a pretty fair number for both sides, given his willingness to sign longterm and obvious potential.

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If Manny is a FA at 26 how much do you think he gets? He's probably a plus SS with a .290, .340, .500 line and an average of 20 HR and 80 RBI, probably more. I'd say 20M per, so figure 20 M for each year of FA he gives up. What do you think he gets for his 3 years of arb. ? I'd say more than Wieters.

You have to discount for risk. The Orioles have little incentive to just offer up guaranteed money based on what he'd get in arb if he stays healthy and productive.

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The kid is currently worth 5.8 fWAR. That is about 30 M. Some how I think he will get better over the next few years. I'd wager over the next 8 years he will be worth 150 M.

It is based on so much defensive WAR. Manny has made some fabulous defensive players the last two nights. Highlighters and yet his dWAR dropped both nights. The statistic is volatile. It drives me crazy when people talk about deals based on defensive runs saved or dWAR. Bring that argument up after 3-4 years when the stat normalizes.

I wouldn't even think of giving him a deal now. It's just nonsensical. He's not even arbitration eligible until 2016 which means he'll be making close to league minimum in 2014 and 2015. The doubles have stopped coming. The slider has been broken out more since July. Not taking anything away from Machado right now, but I want to see if his offense is sustainable and will improve. I'm very interested in his offensive performance in the next two years. I wouldn't even think twice about a extension until 2016. He's under team control until 2019.

He's a very green player. The best thing to do is just let him go play and don't put the pressure on an unproven player.

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It is based on so much defensive WAR. Manny has made some fabulous defensive players the last two nights. Highlighters and yet his dWAR dropped both nights. The statistic is volatile. It drives me crazy when people talk about deals based on defensive runs saved or dWAR. Bring that argument up after 3-4 years when the stat normalizes.

I wouldn't even think of giving him a deal now. It's just nonsensical. He's not even arbitration eligible until 2016 which means he'll be making close to league minimum in 2014 and 2015. The doubles have stopped coming. The slider has been broken out more since July. Not taking anything away from Machado right now, but I want to see if his offense is sustainable and will improve. I'm very interested in his offensive performance in the next two years. I wouldn't even think twice about a extension until 2016. He's under team control until 2019.

He's a very green player. The best thing to do is just let him go play and don't put the pressure on an unproven player.

Of course the other side of that coin is the O's are a very resource-constrained organization, and it would be really nice to have an inflation- and breakout-proof contract for what is likely to be at least a star performer for the next decade. If the Rays had just let it ride and paid Longoria based on arb and free agency rates it would have been essentially impossible to keep him and stay within their given budget.

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Of course the other side of that coin is the O's are a very resource-constrained organization, and it would be really nice to have an inflation- and breakout-proof contract for what is likely to be at least a star performer for the next decade. If the Rays had just let it ride and paid Longoria based on arb and free agency rates it would have been essentially impossible to keep him and stay within their given budget.

But have you seen Longoria hit against a slider? Dude is money!

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Of course the other side of that coin is the O's are a very resource-constrained organization, and it would be really nice to have an inflation- and breakout-proof contract for what is likely to be at least a star performer for the next decade. If the Rays had just let it ride and paid Longoria based on arb and free agency rates it would have been essentially impossible to keep him and stay within their given budget.

I'm very interested in Machado's 2014 and 2015 offensive performance. Taking nothing away from him. He's not a proven player. I want to see a consistent offensive force from him.

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I'm very interested in Machado's 2014 and 2015 offensive performance. Taking nothing away from him. He's not a proven player. I want to see a consistent offensive force from him.

I'm pretty confident that a guy who's put up about 8 rWAR in his first 190 games at his age will continue to play at a level far exceeding his salary for quite a long time. Extension or not.

With about a month left in his age-20 season he's already 9th in rWAR among all MLBs in history through age 20. If you look at the top 20 players on that list the disappointments are Tony Conigliaro, who suffered a terrible beaning, and Claudell Washington, who had a 17-year major league career. Almost everyone else is in the Hall or has a fairly strong case.

Manny has had a more valuable career through his age than Ted Williams or Frank Robinson or Mickey Mantle. Just his oWAR of 3.8 is as valuble as the through-20 total value of Willie Mays, and better than Cap Anson, Giancarlo Stanton, Orlando Cepeda, Pudge Rodriguez, Eddie Mathews, Robin Yount, etc, etc.

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