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If Hardy is traded, is Matusz and Flaherty enough to get Headley from SD?


Tony-OH

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That would be the key though. If you have a window to sign Headley to an extension, then yes, his value goes up.

A window would be nice, but I'd do it even if it wasn't agreed to and I had a good idea on his demands and that he would be willing to extend. If he's intent on going to free agency, then yeah his trade value is going to be much lower.

However, he is probably better off extending now as a 30 year old player one season removed from what will almost certainly be his peak season, then gambling on having a big year in order to enter the market at 31 and have 2012 be even more in the rearview mirror. I think an extension could definitely happen.

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Flaherty is a great UTIL.... Thats his max potential. Schoop could be our Pedroia.

Super Utility is probably Flaherty's role, but I still see some upside with him. From May 9th to the end of the season, Flaherty hit .275/.339/.485/.824 over 183 PAs with 8 doubles and 9 home runs. That's 21 doubles and 24.5 homers over 500 PAs. Those would have been outstanding numbers at 2B or 3B.

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I think a lot more is needed and I'm not sure the Padres need pitching to the extend that Matusz would be considered an upgrade to their rotation.

Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, and Eric Stults all figure to have spots in the rotation barring the addition of a big name (not Matusz). That leaves one spot, but I don't know if Matusz is better than the list of potentials to fill that role, including:

Cory Luebke

Burch Smith

Robbie Erlin

Joe Wieland

Casey Kelly

Matt Wisler

Flaherty is a solid player, but he's an average starter at best and very good utility guy at worst. Certainly a useable piece, but him and a relief arm is not enough to get a year of Headley who (in a down year had a 116 OPS+) and is a year removed from a monster season, particularly since his 2nd half of 2013 (.829 OPS) was better than the first half (.689) showing that the severe downturn last year could have been mostly due to injury.

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Still not enough I don't think. If that's all that is on the table, San Diego would just keep him and hope he gets hot before trade season.

Matusz, Britton and an additional B/high C prospect might make sense for both sides. Even then I don't think they'd go for it.

If I was SD I'd trade him now, plus I think you may be overvaluing him a bit if you believe that Matusz, Britton and a high B or C prospect may not get it done.

SD is taking a big risk of holding him until the deadline - if he plays at his 2013 level they (IMO) not get a lot for a couple of months for a decent 3B. I believe he is a mid to high .700 guy with meh defense.

I also believe that after reading what Nolasco is being offered that pitching will be way overrated this winter. Matusz has shown that he can get big leaguers out - can he make it back? I may go with a Tim Berry (or maybe a bit higher) or Flaherty but not both. Anything higher I would hold onto Matusz, etc. and lump them in on a trade for pitching with JJ or not. We may have to set our sites a bit lower but.... if we can still get a decent return from St. Louis either put Flaherty at 3b (or short) or pick up a (gulp) :eektf: Uribe type.

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If I was SD I'd trade him now, plus I think you may be overvaluing him a bit if you believe that Matusz, Britton and a high B or C prospect may not get it done.

SD is taking a big risk of holding him until the deadline - if he plays at his 2013 level they (IMO) not get a lot for a couple of months for a decent 3B. I believe he is a mid to high .700 guy with meh defense.

I also believe that after reading what Nolasco is being offered that pitching will be way overrated this winter. Matusz has shown that he can get big leaguers out - can he make it back? I may go with a Tim Berry (or maybe a bit higher) or Flaherty but not both. Anything higher I would hold onto Matusz, etc. and lump them in on a trade for pitching with JJ or not. We may have to set our sites a bit lower but.... if we can still get a decent return from St. Louis either put Flaherty at 3b (or short) or pick up a (gulp) :eektf: Uribe type.

A 30 year old with a career .765 OPS at PETCO is not a mid to high .700 OPS guy. He has a career 115 OPS+ and 115 wRC+. Last season, even with the early-season injury, he performed to roughly his career averages: 116 OPS+ and 113 wRC+. To put that in perspective, Adam Jones had a 115 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ this year. Adam Jones slashed .285/.318/.493/.811 this season.

Headley is a very solid hitter who has played his entire career in an absolute disaster of a park for hitters to play in. I think he'd be around a .800 OPS guy on the Orioles, with some upside from his encouraging second half and monster 2012, offset by the inevitable toll of declining due to age.

Also I don't know what you defensive tool of choice is, but Headley has a career +7.3 UZR/150 in over 5000 innings at 3B. Nothing meh about that. His only season with a negative UZR was 2011 and he missed some time that year due to injury (only 113 games). I don't think he's some rangy, flashy 3B but he's definitely very sure-handed over there. Sort of like a lesser version of what Hardy is as SS. Gets to all the balls he's supposed to and makes all the plays, but only rarely will "wow" you.

I would have some hesitancy about signing a 30-year old with some injury history to a long extension, but outside of 2011 and 2013 he's been very durable. Even in 2011 and 2013, he played 113 and 141 games, respectively.

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I meant to say that his .765 career OPS is playing half his games at PETCO. He has a career .707 OPS at PETCO and .818 OPS away, which just goes to show how much that stadium has killed him offensively.

He came on a bit at the end of the season. Jim Presley could probably do a good job with him. He was Garrett Atkins/Mark Reynolds awful before the All Star break though.

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He came on a bit at the end of the season. Jim Presley could probably do a good job with him. He was Garrett Atkins/Mark Reynolds awful before the All Star break though.

He batted .229 in the first half but still had a .330 OBP. I wish all our hitters slumped like that. Also, the .689 OPS in the first half was still league average offense (99 wRC+). PETCO really is that bad for hitters.

His walk rates and strikeout rates were the same in the first and second halves. The big thing that changed in the second half is he found his power stroke (ISO jumped from .131 to .178) and the BABIP shot up (.288 to .365). His BABIP on the season was .318, compared to a career BABIP of .335.

I'd say that the second half version is the real Chase Headley, with a little bit of luck on balls in play. The first half version is just Headley with some bad luck and a nagging injury sapping his power. I know who I'd bet on to show up next year.

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The big thing that changed in the second half is he found his power stroke (ISO jumped from .131 to .178) and the BABIP shot up (.288 to .365). His BABIP on the season was .318, compared to a career BABIP of .335.

I'd say that the second half version is the real Chase Headley, with a little bit of luck on balls in play. The first half version is just Headley with some bad luck and a nagging injury sapping his power. I know who I'd bet on to show up next year.

Wasn't that the story about Garrett Atkins as well?

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Wasn't that the story about Garrett Atkins as well?

I don't know, I don't recall, but Atkins was god awful for a full season in Colorado and trending down extremely fast on every relevant measurable statistic before we signed him. Headley probably would have hit better with two broken thumbs and a wiffleball bat in the first half last year than Atkins did in all of 2009 before we picked him up.

Also, Headley did in fact get better and put up a very strong second half. It's not like that doesn't count. What's the relevance of the comparison that you are bringing up? That a broken thumb in the first half with no apparent effects on the second half could be some pause for concern in considering Headley as an acquisition?

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A 30 year old with a career .765 OPS at PETCO is not a mid to high .700 OPS guy. He has a career 115 OPS+ and 115 wRC+. Last season, even with the early-season injury, he performed to roughly his career averages: 116 OPS+ and 113 wRC+. To put that in perspective, Adam Jones had a 115 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ this year. Adam Jones slashed .285/.318/.493/.811 this season.

Headley is a very solid hitter who has played his entire career in an absolute disaster of a park for hitters to play in. I think he'd be around a .800 OPS guy on the Orioles, with some upside from his encouraging second half and monster 2012, offset by the inevitable toll of declining due to age.

Also I don't know what you defensive tool of choice is, but Headley has a career +7.3 UZR/150 in over 5000 innings at 3B. Nothing meh about that. His only season with a negative UZR was 2011 and he missed some time that year due to injury (only 113 games). I don't think he's some rangy, flashy 3B but he's definitely very sure-handed over there. Sort of like a lesser version of what Hardy is as SS. Gets to all the balls he's supposed to and makes all the plays, but only rarely will "wow" you.

I would have some hesitancy about signing a 30-year old with some injury history to a long extension, but outside of 2011 and 2013 he's been very durable. Even in 2011 and 2013, he played 113 and 141 games, respectively.

Still think Matusz, Britton plus+ is too much... geez, getting all testy. I said that I think he is a decent 3B.. do I think one year is enough to part with two pitchers that may get it for a decent 3B that I believe will not ever reach 2012 standards.

How is estimating a mid to high .700 that far off if we use your career average of .765, not just in Petco. Saying that, I did check the splits and, except for last year, there was some severe difference home/away.

Them, you say outside of 2 of the past 3 years (as he gets older) being durable? Of course, I never said anything about durability.

I believe the last thing we should be doing is sending pitching out (two LHs btw plus+) that I am not convinced are done for a probable one year for a 3B that may have some injury issues. A difference of opinion, I am not as enamored with career averages - but either way, not enough for you to get your panties in a wad... If I thought he could get even close to 2012 I would be completely on-board. In hindsight though... I want to save as many pieces as possible for pitching or offense that can make a big difference.

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Still think Matusz, Britton plus+ is too much... geez, getting all testy. I said that I think he is a decent 3B.. do I think one year is enough to part with two pitchers that may get it for a decent 3B that I believe will not ever reach 2012 standards.

How is estimating a mid to high .700 that far off if we use your career average of .765, not just in Petco. Saying that, I did check the splits and, except for last year, there was some severe difference home/away.

Them, you say outside of 2 of the past 3 years (as he gets older) being durable? Of course, I never said anything about durability.

I believe the last thing we should be doing is sending pitching out (two LHs btw plus+) that I am not convinced are done for a probable one year for a 3B that may have some injury issues. A difference of opinion, I am not as enamored with career averages - but either way, not enough for you to get your panties in a wad... If I thought he could get even close to 2012 I would be completely on-board. In hindsight though... I want to save as many pieces as possible for pitching or offense that can make a big difference.

I'm saying that Headley is alot better than you are giving him credit for. Wasn't trying to get testy about it. I'm just pointing out that calling him a mid to high .700 OPS hitter is seriously underselling his offensive abilities.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say about his home/away splits. Having a large home/away split, as he does, is indicative of the fact that the most pitcher-friendly park in the game has really hurt his numbers. If you adjust his numbers for a park-neutral environment, he's been the equivalent of a .800+ OPS hitter over the course of his career. There's no reason to think he's in for a big dropoff at age 30.

Getting Headley for Britton and Matusz would be a huge steal, even if it is for one year of Headley and a draft pick if we can't re-sign him. I also think there's a good chance we could sign him to an extension. There's no way SD would agree with that deal. I'm sure everybody in the Orioles organization would endorse that trade.

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No rumor at all. Just me bringing up a possible scenario for conversation.
Sorry, I can't see them making this deal from SD's standpoint even if Headley is a rental. If you were SD would you really take a chance that Flaherty could post above a .700 OPS and replace a (2012) gold glove winning 3B? Headley may have hit for an OPS of .747, but in that ballpark it was good enough for an OPS+ of 116.
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