Scout tells SI: Jimenez overrated, Tillman underrated

[Frobby]

From SI's writeup of the Orioles:

Scout's Takes

Most overrated: Ubaldo Jimenez

"Ubaldo Jimenez is bad money spent, in my opinion. There's a ton of working parts there. There's a ton of rhythm that goes to that delivery. He's got a jab, and a wrap, and a hook back toward first base. It's tough for him to stay consistent. I've seen him twice down here. First outing: Two innings, he was clean, down the hill, strikes, fastball, slider, change. Today: Three or four walks, three-and-two on every hitter, hanging sliders, got knocked around pretty good. I think that's kind of what you get with him. He's had two good halves so far in his career. He had his great half with the Rockies in 2010, and he had his great half last year in the second half, but there's a lot of scary working parts to that delivery that really give me concern about his ability to be a dominant number-one starter."

Most underrated: Chris Tillman

"Chris Tillman has really come on for me as a pitcher. He finally mastered his delivery to become an up-and-down-the-ladder power pitcher with a plus curveball. He gets guys out [by] moving their eyes up and down off of his curveball, his high fastball, his low fastball, and his changeup. That's kind of like the classic Jim Palmer or Rick Sutcliff-type guy, and he's finally mastered that. He throws enough quality strikes down, then he throws that big curveball that makes your eyes go up and then down, and then he'll throw 96 at the top of the zone, and you can't hit it, and you can't lay off of it. So when he's doing good, he works up and down the ladder very, very well."

http://mlb.si.com/2014/03/25/baltimore-orioles-2014-season-preview/

SI ranks us 20th among MLB teams, with a predicted record of 78-84.

[33rdst]

I think Kevin Gausman is going to play a huge role in the Orioles success this year. I see him returning to the team in June and being dominant in the second half. As for the analysis and predictions, I prefer being picked low. I've always viewed us as the under dogs anyway. Frankly,I'm tired of all of the prognosticating.Let's go play.

[weams]

From SI's writeup of the Orioles:

http://mlb.si.com/2014/03/25/baltimore-orioles-2014-season-preview/

SI ranks us 20th among MLB teams, with a predicted record of 78-84.

You believe they are right in their judgement?

[Redskins Rick]

I can understand the difference of opinions on Jimenez, and he will be either be a great signing and Duke is present a gold coin in his honor and a bronze statue on Eutaw Street.

Or he will be a bust and go down in the history books as the worse signing in Oriole history and Duke will be label an idiot.

[blid]

We've had winning seasons the last two years, going 93-69 and 85-77. We added Jimenez and Cruz. And yet nearly every projection has us finishing sub .500, the sabremetric projections, the expert projections, everyone. It's not that I can't see it happening, success is a fine line, and the Yankees should be better this season. But I'm still pretty shocked at how unanimous these forecasts seem to be.

[wildcard]

I agree with the assessment of the two pitchers. Tillman keeps moving toward being an ace and Jimenez's inconsistency will make it hard for him to break a 4.00 ERA on a yearly basis.

Not sure about the record. There is a lot more that goes into that.

I agree with Gausman coming back and being a big asset.

So far it seems like Chen spending the off season recovering from knee surgery may not have allowed his to work on his strength the way he needed to help him get better.

[Redskins Rick]

We've had winning seasons the last two years, going 93-69 and 85-77. We added Jimenez and Cruz. And yet nearly every projection has us finishing sub .500, the sabremetric projections, the expert projections, everyone. It's not that I can't see it happening, success is a fine line, and the Yankees should be better this season. But I'm still pretty shocked at how unanimous these forecasts seem to be.

In the weeks prior to their signings, most OH posters had these two on the bottom of their available Free Agent Christmas wish lists.

[blid]

In the weeks prior to their signings, most OH posters had these two on the bottom of their available Free Agent Christmas wish lists.

Cruz is a huge upgrade over what our DH position put up last season and I assume Jimenez is a large upgrade over the smorgasbord of 5th starters and Feldman.

[OFFNY]

.

If Jimenez is slightly overrated, then I believe that he was well worth the acquisition.

We need(ed) an experienced, solid starting pitcher, both to help the team this year, AND to bridge the gap for potential future starters such as Gausman, Bundy, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Jimenez is a good bet to accomplish this, on both counts.

If our offense is above average (and I expect it to be), then I believe that it will be a good season for the Orioles.

[Redskins Rick]

Cruz is a huge upgrade over what our DH position put up last season and I assume Jimenez is a large upgrade over the smorgasbord of 5th starters and Feldman.

Cruz can be an upgrade.

Jimenez can also be an huge upgrade, but he isn't a lock and shown quite a bit of inconsistencies.

Feldman was offered a two year deal to stay, no need for him to be here long term, so he couldn't have been that bad a pitcher.

Been interesting to revisit this discussion at the end of the season.

I don't want Cruz or Jimenez to fail, I hope they both have outstanding years, but I understand the doubt some non-Oriole projectionists are having with this team.

Personally, I think we are WS bound, and if OFFNY is right, they lose to the Cardinals in the WS.

[Carroll County]

I think what is written in that article is a pretty fair assessment of the team, although I think that they are easily better than 20th best team in baseball, and I think their record is probably a little low. Even with that record, I'd still have them as better than the 20th best team, given the strength of our division.

[33rdst]

We've had winning seasons the last two years, going 93-69 and 85-77. We added Jimenez and Cruz. And yet nearly every projection has us finishing sub .500, the sabremetric projections, the expert projections, everyone. It's not that I can't see it happening, success is a fine line, and the Yankees should be better this season. But I'm still pretty shocked at how unanimous these forecasts seem to be.

This is an excellent point. The competition is so close in the AL East I think the experts are basically guessing now. Any team could emerge in this division. Injuries will play an important role in which team succeeds. Therefore depth at the AAA level will be a huge factor. This is where DD will earn his money.

[Redskins Rick]

This is an excellent point. The competition is so close in the AL East I think the experts are basically guessing now. Any team could emerge in this division. Injuries will play an important role in which team succeeds. Therefore depth at the AAA level will be a huge factor. This is where DD will earn his money.

I think Boston and the the Rays are the two to watch in the AL East. The Yankees are old and with issues, even with Tanaka signing.

[33rdst]

I think Boston and the the Rays are the two to watch in the AL East. The Yankees are old and with issues, even with Tanaka signing.

Don't count out Toronto. They have an extremely dangerous line-up. Their pitching is the issue but so is it for the O's. They have some quality veteran arms. If they can put it together, the Blue Jays will be a factor.

[mdbdotcom]

TOR free agents don't get $12.5 million a year anymore, they make twice that (or close to it). If Jimenez pitches 190+ innings with an ERA around 4, he will be an upgrade to the rotation who helps keep our bullpen sharp. After Gausman and Bundy come up and start to contribute, trading him should be no problem (if that's what they want to do).

The consistently low predictions make me wonder if it might be a case of bandwagoning for some of these guys. I prefer Jim Bowden's prediction that any of 4 teams in the AL East (except the Blue Jays) can win at least 85 games and make the playoffs. That sounds about right to me. We'll see.