Jump to content

Olney On Qualifying Offer Candidates


Greg

Recommended Posts

A question: While shortstop requires more movement, third base requires extremely quick reactions, so would ss actually be better for Manny's knees than 3b?

Until I thought of that I was 100% in the keep Manny at 3b because of his injuries, but now I'm wondering.

I think being exposed to having the DP broken up would be a major concern with him at SS.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 94
  • Created
  • Last Reply
In his latest Insider-only blog, ESPN?s Buster Olney runs down a list of pending free agents that are candidates to receive qualifying offers. Olney spoke with several executives from around the league and is of the mind that James Shields, Max Scherzer, Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Russell Martin, Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Ervin Santana, David Robertson and Hanley Ramirez will receive qualifying offers, which should fall between $15MM and $15.5MM.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/09/olney-on-qualifying-offer-candidates.html

Duquette is going to allow Hardy, the anchor of the Orioles infield, to become a FA? It's appears that way. For some reason, he didn't make a serious attempt to sign him in ST. I am very worried about this situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I doubt the O's make any decisions this offseason contingent on Manny's being able to play SS in 2015. They'll probably try to negotiate a reasonable extension with Hardy and failing that trade for a stop gap good field no hit SS. As for Nick they will probably try to do the same but they will be ready to pick up a short term replacement to go in the mix with Pearce, and De Aza, and Jones

Everyone thought DD would have attempted to work out that Hardy deal in ST, but it didn't happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hardy has ben a 3-4 WAR contributor for the past four years at annual salaries of $7M or less.

We could be flipping the value received from Hardy with a new contract that might be in the 3/$42M range or higher where his salary doubles and his WAR declines. That could be difficult to stomach, but, on the other hand, there could still be some value there if Hardy maintains production above 3 WAR. Generally, though I would take the draft pick and let someone else worry about a production decline for a player in their 32-34 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But why would Hardy take two years? This is his last chance at a payday. For the past 3 years he's been getting paid less than his on-field performance would dictate. If you're Hardy you are looking for 3 years guaranteed at minimum.

So you tear apart his post/opinion. Then post your own opinion as if you have some inside knowledge on Hardy. Have you ever spoke to Hardy? Are you his agent? Are you his wife? Have you heard or read somewhere that he is looking for a 3+ year contract? If not, isn't your opinion just as much of a guess as his?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hardy has ben a 3-4 WAR contributor for the past four years at annual salaries of $7M or less.

We could be flipping the value received from Hardy with a new contract that might be in the 3/$42M range or higher where his salary doubles and his WAR declines. That could be difficult to stomach, but, on the other hand, there could still be some value there if Hardy maintains production above 3 WAR. Generally, though I would take the draft pick and let someone else worry about a production decline for a player in their 32-34 years.

I don't advocate paying Hardy more than we think he'll be worth. We should estimate what he'll be worth and then discount some from there to account for risk. Even so, I think something like 3/$35-40 would be good value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sigh.

It is still a valid point that a team with the O's financial constraints needs to be careful with long term deals and over 30 middle infielders who are CURRENTLY suffering back issues are, to me, a bit too risky.

Hardy's back isn't fixed. He got a cortisone shot so he could play through it. That's two this season.

I agree, with that said, I want a real SS and not Andino or similar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I've mentioned this a few times, and no one ever responds to it, but I'll try again.

Should they play the 2015 season as an Oriole, both Markakis and Hardy will have earned the right to block any trade. I can't believe the O's want to put themselves in that position on a multi-year deal with either of them.

As for replacing Nick, I'd be happy starting the year with an outfield of De Aza, Jones, and Pearce.

As for replacing Hardy, I'd move Manny to SS and fill 3B.

That might mean Flaherty has to start at SS for a month or two, but we've already seen that we can live with that. Manny's knee "injury" surgeries were actually corrections to deformities in his knees. They've been fixed. Was he slowed down one bit after recovery this year? No, and since his surgery was a month earlier this season, he should be ready to participate in 3 or 4 weeks of spring training. He was a SS coming up until they moved him to 3B at age 20 by bringing him up after never starting a game at 3B in the minors. I have no doubt about his ability to play SS.

I think Nick and Hardy will agree to team friendly deals. This is Nick's home and Hardy was all over the place before he got here.

I don't see anybody in the media that's saying Manny should move positions at this point. It would be nice to see him get through a season without an injury before switching to a more demanding spot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So you tear apart his post/opinion. Then post your own opinion as if you have some inside knowledge on Hardy. Have you ever spoke to Hardy? Are you his agent? Are you his wife? Have you heard or read somewhere that he is looking for a 3+ year contract? If not, isn't your opinion just as much of a guess as his?

I didn't tear apart his opinion, I DESTROYED it!!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I've mentioned this a few times, and no one ever responds to it, but I'll try again.

Should they play the 2015 season as an Oriole, both Markakis and Hardy will have earned the right to block any trade. I can't believe the O's want to put themselves in that position on a multi-year deal with either of them.

As for replacing Nick, I'd be happy starting the year with an outfield of De Aza, Jones, and Pearce.

As for replacing Hardy, I'd move Manny to SS and fill 3B.

That might mean Flaherty has to start at SS for a month or two, but we've already seen that we can live with that. Manny's knee "injury" surgeries were actually corrections to deformities in his knees. They've been fixed. Was he slowed down one bit after recovery this year? No, and since his surgery was a month earlier this season, he should be ready to participate in 3 or 4 weeks of spring training. He was a SS coming up until they moved him to 3B at age 20 by bringing him up after never starting a game at 3B in the minors. I have no doubt about his ability to play SS.

Pick a different short stop and we can talk about this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My opinion is that Manny will be ready by Spring Training and Opening Day this year. I also predicted that he would not be ready for OD last year. However, based on his surgery and the demands of the positions, why would they even consider moving Manny off of 3B. He is a gold glove 3B. Leave him there and offer the QO to JJ or sign somebody else. Even think about moving Schoop to SS if need be. They have Flaherty also. I do not see moving Manny. But I have been wrong so often about so much in the past.

I was just thinking about this option. Schoop played more games at SS in the minors then anywhere else.

Is he capable defensively? I don't know.

The easiest solution is to just keep Hardy, but I agree its hard to give him the contract he has earned. And my goodness has he earned a pay day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • Yeah, basically this, that Westburg's underlying numbers (EV, barrel %, xwOBA) seem to point at this being pretty real, or at least that there's nothing 'undeserved / lucky' about this hot streak, if it's just that. 
    • The problem with a Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers/Bradfield outfield roster is there are no right handers to handle LHP. I don't think and completely left handed outfield is the destination for an organization the values versatility.
    • Looks maybe concussion related. 
    • How can you not be romantic about baseball? This seems slightly poetic. I enjoyed reading, and correlated your experience in the stands back to what I watch in Game 1 on MASN.  It was also pretty cool to hear Jim Palmer give you a shout out in Game 2 of the series on Live TV.
    • I am not worried.  It just doesn’t remotely meet the eye test.  He has been great in the field . I can think of at least 3 outstanding plays he has made and not any that I thought he should have gotten but didn’t. Meanwhile Holliday is 3 OAA and I can’t think of an outstanding play and can think of a number I thought he should have made. 
    • Nicely stated Roy. Every since I was 9 years old and saw the O's vs. the Tokyo Giants in Tokyo in 1971, I've been infected with the Orange/Black virus. There is no cure and I don't want one. You and I sat at the lunch table with Jim Palmer at the 1970 World Series Champs reunion, and its still one of my enduring baseball memories. You said I looked like Carlton Fisk! I was at all 3 games in this Angels series, right behind the O's dugout. I got to see all our boys, and just simply love to watch this team play. And in true baseball fashion, the one game on paper we should have dominated (GRod vs. 8+ ERA Channing), we end up down 7-0 and lose. But watching Gunnar's homers, his electric triple, and he made a fantastic play today on a ball that went under Westburg's glove, Adley do Adley things, Cowser, holy crap. Kimbrel v. Trout with bases loaded, bottom of 9th, 2 outs, down by 2? That was fun. Next game Trout bats leadoff and torches a GRod fastball for a homer to the opposite field.  An observation.... If you didn't know anything about the team, and you only watched game 1 batting practice, you'd think Cowser and O'Hearn were the studs of the team. Mountcastle was taking BP with the reserves and he put on a show as well.  Home after 3 straight days watching this O's team, so jealous of the Balt fans in Balt that get to see the team with regularity. It's a special bunch.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...