Projecting 2015 performance with 3 year stats

[wildcard]

I have been working on this over the last week. By adding up the 3 year average total it gives me the sense that in spite of losing Nick and Nelson the O's have a very good chance of being a very good team in 2015.

The O's have the talent to lead the AL in home runs and slugging percentage. They are near the bottom of the league in OBP and need to add Aoki and Young to get back to where they were last year in OBP. The pitching is near the top of the league as is the defense. The hitting can be better with full years from Manny, Matt and Davis and the addition of Aoki and Young. This is a team capable of winning the World Series if Dan makes the additions to the team that are needs. Alvarez, Walker and Navarro will fill in where needed.

I have always liked three year stats as a way of predicting what a player or team will do the next year. Not that it is always right because no method is. But rather I think its good enough to take the good and the bad and see what an average year would look like.

Its much better than career numbers because 2010 doesn't have much affect when its 2015 that is being projected.

So here are the three year averages for the O's players. You can find them with the averages already calculated on ESPN:

Norichika Aoki RF

3 yr avg 536 AB, 75 R, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 22 SB, 287/353/387/740

The O's need to increase their OBP. Aoki can do that. 2/14M.

Steve Pearce DH/1B/LF/RF

3 year avg 205 AB, 27 R, 10 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB, 273/359/484/843

w/500 AB 500 AB, 66 R, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 5 SB, 273/359/484/843

At 32 Pearce is in his prime and has found his place. He hit more at 2nd in the order than anywhere else in 2014.

Adam Jones CF

3 year avg 649AB, 97 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 12 SB, 284/321/489/810

Solid as a rock. Adam's consistency is amazing.

Chris Davis 1B

3 year avg 516 AB, 61 R, 37 HR, 98 RBI, 3 SB, 254/335/523/858

Davis' challenge is to get hits vs the shift. He will get a TUE. Looking for a decent year considering he great potential.

Manny Machado 3B

last 2 yrs 497 AB, 63 R, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 4 SB, 282/317/432/749

We have to remember that Manny had 667 AB in 2013. All Manny has to do you get better is stay on the field.

Matt Wieters C

3 year avg 384 AB, 46 R, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 2 SB, 248/311/433/744

I look for a slow start due to being careful with his throwing arm. But Matt will come around in the summer. Buck will not expect him to be a horse this year. Hundley will get playing time throughout the year.

JJ Hardy SS

3 year avg 598 AB, 69 R, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, 255/298/399/697

Hardy finds his power stroke. Is even more of a team leader to go with Adam and Matt with Nick gone.

Alejandro De Aza LF

3 yr avg 538 AB, 74 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 21 SB, 266/329/401/730

vs righties 418 AB, 57 R, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB, 272/335/412/747

Probably most effective vs righties with Pearce playing left vs lefties. Yes, RZ I know he may hit lefties.

Jon Schoop 2B

2014 455 AB, 48 R, 16 HR, 45 RBI, 2 SB, 209/244/354/598

Competition from Navarro in ST. Schoop will spend some time at AAA. But there is no denying his talent.

Ryan Flaherty

3 year avg 277 AB, 25 R, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB, 221/281/369/652

Plays all over the infield. He solidified the utility infield role. Probably will never be a every day player.

Caleb Joseph

2014 246 AB, 22 R, 9 HR, 28 RBI, 0 SB, 207/264/354/618

If they sign Hundley, Joseph will be around until Wieters is healthy. Then he will go to AAA until Sept. Offensive stats between Joseph and Hundley are almost equal. Joseph has the better arm.

David Lough

2 year avg 245 AB, 33 R, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB, 272/310/403/713

Nori's late inning replacement. He can play all three outfield spot and pinch run. That is what the O's want from a 4th outfielder.

_______________________________________________________

Totals 4785 AB, 587 R, 189 HR, 608 RBI, 55 SB, 255/305/433/738 without Aoki and Young

Totals 5321 AB 662 R, 195 HR, 651 RBI, 77 SB 258/309/428/737 with Aoki

Delmon Young

vs lefties 355 AB, 37 R, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 290/328/442/770

2015 vs lefties 150 AB, 16 R, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 290/328/442/770

2014 242 AB, 27 R, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 2 SB, 302/337/442/779

I choose to use Young 2014 stats because Buck is the only manager that has found a way to make Young an asset and Buck will do that again in 2015.

Totals 5563, 202 HR,681 RBI, 79 SB, 260/310/429/739 with Aoki and Young

Total runs at about 701.

May help during the 2015 season:

Christian Walker

Dariel Alvarez

Rey Navarro

[Frobby]

I think the rate projections are decent for de Aza, Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Flaherty, Lough and Markakis. I'll take the under for Pearce and Davis, and the over for Manny and Schoop (who only has one year of data). I have no idea what to expect from Caleb Joseph.

[wildcard]

I think the rate projections are decent for de Aza, Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Flaherty, Lough and Markakis. I'll take the under for Pearce and Davis, and the over for Manny and Schoop (who only has one year of data). I have no idea what to expect from Caleb Joseph.

Sounds about right on Manny and Schoop. Young players usually improve. Davis and Pearce have already taken big drops from their highs through the averaging. I think there is a decent chance they high those numbers. Davis will probably have a TUE this year.

[wildcard]

OP updated. Just waiting for Dan to add Aoki, Young and Hundley.

I have added analysis notes to the OP and totaled where I think the team could be with additions.

Better OBP #1 need.

[weams]

I think the rate projections are decent for de Aza, Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Flaherty, Lough and Markakis. I'll take the under for Pearce and Davis, and the over for Manny and Schoop (who only has one year of data). I have no idea what to expect from Caleb Joseph.

I think I agree with all of this.

[33rdst]

First off, great job pulling this together. I agree with others about Davis and Pearce they may be a little high but I'd take those slash lines in a heart beat. The rest I'm on board with although, Wieters is a crap shoot based on his health. And I'm not sure about Aoki, he may have some regression do to age. Delmon is a no brainier. I don't understand why he isn't signed yet

[wildcard]

I think I agree with all of this.

Weams, you are becoming predictable. Nothing wrong with that unless you don't want to be.

[weams]

Weams, you are becoming predictable. Nothing wrong with that unless you don't want to be.

I am predictable.

[wildcard]

First off, great job pulling this together. I agree with others about Davis and Pearce they may be a little high but I'd take those slash lines in a heart beat. The rest I'm on board with although, Wieters is a crap shoot based on his health. And I'm not sure about Aoki, he may have some regression do to age. Delmon is a no brainier. I don't understand why he isn't signed yet

I don't think Aoki is a great player by any stretch of the imagination. But he does add what the O's need at the top of the order. The one thing I think may be a little high is his steals with the O's. His steal percentage is not high and I think Buck will not give him the run sign often. However, 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home he will be better than Nick. He appears to know how to get on base.

I see him starting in right in 2015 and in left in 2016 after Alvarez arrives and De Aza goes free agent.

[Aristotelian]

Did I miss something? Have we signed Aoki? I agree, he strikes me as a cheaper and faster version of Markakis and would very much like to see him signed but the premise of this thread seems to assume an event that hasn't taken place. Other than that, the projections seem sound but there is an obvious hole in our lineup. How do we feel about our lineup if Pearce is our starting LF and Walker or Alvarez is our DH?

[25 Nuggets]

I am predictable.

HA!! That's JUST what a predictable person would say!

btw - sorry Wildcard, I must spread some rep around. 740 runs would have landed the Orioles third in the AL last year.

[wildcard]

Did I miss something? Have we signed Aoki? I agree, he strikes me as a cheaper and faster version of Markakis and would very much like to see him signed but the premise of this thread seems to assume an event that hasn't taken place. Other than that, the projections seem sound but there is an obvious hole in our lineup. How do we feel about our lineup if Pearce is our starting LF and Walker or Alvarez is our DH?

First, I would point you to the 2nd line of the 2nd paragraph. "They are near the bottom of the league in OBP and need to add Aoki and Young to get back to where they were last year in OBP." "Need to add" is talking about something that I think should happen in the near future. It does not say that its something that has been done.

Pearce in LF? Well, he can play it but does not have the range of De Aza. In fact vs lefties I would have Pearce platoon in left if De Aza does not hit lefties.

JMO, but I am not ready to put Walker or Alvarez in a major league everyday lineup until they prove themselves at AAA. Both show promise. Walker had a 811 OPS vs righties in 127 plate appearances at AAA. But he had a 657 OPS vs lefties in 61 PAs at AAA. Meanwhile, Alvarez had an 844 OPS vs lefties in 56 PAs at AAA and a 733 OPS vs righties in 127 PAs at AAA. Sound like a good platoon? Well not really. The number of PAs are too small. I would like to see each player get at least another 200 PA to add to those to see where they are at that point.

I could see Walker becoming a DH but from what I have heard it would be a waste not be play Alvarez in the outfield. Defensive numbers are not that accurate but what i see so far has Alvarez with Adam Jones arm and range. That could be interesting.

[33rdst]

I wanted to revisit this in light of the disappearing offensive options. Is there anyone on your list whose numbers have declined since 2014. If not is it realistic to expect everyone's performance to improve.

[wildcard]

I wanted to revisit this in light of the disappearing offensive options. Is there anyone on your list whose numbers have declined since 2014. If not is it realistic to expect everyone's performance to improve.

3 year averages are a middle of road kind of projection

Players that did well in 2014 are going to project to be lower in 2015.

Players that did not do well in 2014 are going to project to do better in 2015.

It is kind of a regression to the mean type of projection.

Pearce - 2014, 930 OPS vs 2015, 843 OPS = 87 down

De Aza - 2014, 877 OPS (w/O's) vs 2015, 747 = 140 down

Cruz - 2014, 859 OPS vs 2015, GONE

Wieters - 2014, 839 OPS vs 2015, 744 = 95 down

Jones - 2014, 780 OPS vs 2015, 810 = 30 up

Young - 2014, 779 OPS vs 2015, 779 OPS = even

Machado - 2014, 755 OPS vs 2015, 749 OPS = 6 down

Aoki - 2015 740 ADDED

Markakis - 2014, 729 OPS vs 2015, GONE

Davis - 2014, 704 OPS vs 2015, 858 OPS = 154 up

Lough - 2014, 694 OPS vs 2015, 713 OPS = 19 up

Hardy - 2014, 682 OPS vs 2015, 697 OPS = 15 up

Flaherty - 2014, 644 OPS, vs 2015, 652 OPS = 8 up

Joseph - 2014, 618 OPS vs 2015, 618 OPS = even

Schoop - 2014, 598 OPS vs 2015, 598 OPS = even

Normally young players like Schoop and Machado would see an increase in their OPS on average until they are 27 years old. But I have not increased their projection for 2015 --- yet.