Market Equilibrium: Perceived Value of Middle Relief

[backwardsk]

I like aggressively targeting failed minor league starters that project well in MLB bullpens.

It's not just failed starters elsewhere, it's about building and developing an abundance of starters so that the only opportunities for some is the bullpen. I'm talking about Berry, Wright, and Wilson here. But yes, picking up failed minor leaguers from other organizations is a good strategy as well.

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[Can_of_corn]

It's not just failed starters elsewhere, it's about building and developing an abundance of starters so that the only opportunities for some is the bullpen. I'm talking about Berry, Wright, and Wilson here. But yes, picking up failed minor leaguers from other organizations is a good strategy as well.

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I am more about targeting future bullpen arms in rounds 4-8 or so in the draft. Depending on what is out there. That way you can fast track them to the majors.

[Il BuonO]

I don't follow the logic here. According to you, Beane was smart for drafting college players but then when everyone copied he went against his own philosophy and started drafting more high school players. Couldn't that be interpreted just the opposite way? Beane realized that drafting so many college players wasn't a good strategy after all and just decided to change course?

Maybe he realized there was an opportunity created by the vacuum of the others leaving an over tapped market and took advantage.

[Il BuonO]

Maybe if someone can show us how there was a significant shift of drafting college players instead of HS players. My guess is that we are giving Beane too much credit and he shifted his philosophy after a bunch of bad drafts.

Where's the evidence of that? I'd say Beane's under estimated. I found this article that details his performance. Hard to imagine him performing capably with a bunch of bad drafts thrown in there.

Beane’s 12 wins per season above what we would expect of an average general manager is slightly more wins than Barry Bonds earned when he hit 73 home runs in 2001 (11.9 WAR). The most WAR earned by any batter over his entire career was 163 by Babe Ruth.¹² In fact, if you assemble the top 15 position player seasons of all time, they still trail Beane’s 15 seasons as GM, with 180.1 WAR combined versus Beane’s 180.2 wins above expectation.

No one can get that lucky. If you’re expected to win 1,116 out of 2,364 games, winning 1,296 games instead may not look impossible, but that’s because our intuitions about these things are terrible.

But as GM, Beane is formally responsible for the A’s performance, and there aren’t any other obvious causes that would suggest he isn’t responsible (there have been several different managers and 100 percent turnover of players during Beane’s tenure).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/billion-dollar-billy-beane/