Orioles in trade talks for Andre Ethier

[24fps]

Ethier seems like the NL equivalent of Delmon Young, and a much more expensive one at that. I just don't see the appeal

Ethier was a solid and IMO underrated player from 2006-2013 and then fell off the edge of the Earth last year. He played at a higher level (121 OPS+ to Delmon's 99) during the same number of years. Personally I don't see much similarity between the two.

Ethier's contract is beyond ridiculous, no doubt about that, which is unfortunate because I think there's a reasonable chance he could bounce back and be a serviceable player for the next couple of years.

[weams]

But with 6 million and the 12 from Ulbaldos contract and it really isn't our gad contract.

You are correct. I would never sign Ubaldo to that contract now.

[RVAbird]

League is not as good as Hunter (JMO) and he makes a lot of money. I don't like that trade. Jiminez is owed 3/39M. Hunter gets about 4M in arbitration.

Ethier is guaranteed 3/56M. League is guaranteed 7.5M this year. With 20M from the Dodgers we are taking on 43.5M in guaranteed contracts and giving up about the same. However, we weaken the bullpen and lose our starter depth for an outfielder who bottomed out last year (replacement level) and turns 33 in April.

If you value Ethier and think Jimenez has no value than I guess you can make a case.

Scratch League and Hunter and I'm listening. Hunter is a little cheaper and a little better. And he's a decent depth option if you're trading away your 6th starter as it is.

While I don't like Jimenez' contract, I do think he is/will be better than he was in 2014. While think there's risk of decline, Ethier has some upside and I don't think he's completely done. I'd think hard about a straight swap of Jimenez for Ethier with 20MM coming back our way.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Scratch League and Hunter and I'm listening. Hunter is a little cheaper and a little better. And he's a decent depth option if you're trading away your 6th starter as it is.

While I don't like Jimenez' contract, I do think he is/will be better than he was in 2014. While think there's risk of decline, Ethier has some upside and I don't think he's completely done. I'd think hard about a straight swap of Jimenez for Ethier with 20MM coming back our way.

That's basically swapping Ubaldo's 3/39 for what would be Ethier's net 3/36. Pass big time on that. I'd rather own Ubaldo's 3/39.

[RVAbird]

That's basically swapping Ubaldo's 3/39 for what would be Ethier's net 3/36. Pass big time on that. I'd rather own Ubaldo's 3/39.

Meh. Both could be between replacement level and above average. Baltimore's on the hook for a bad-but-not-terrible contract either way. And you could make the case that they need an outfielder more than a starting pitcher, especially in the second and third years. Like I said, I'd definitely consider it.

[crawjo]

There's a potential reward to grabbing Ethier, but I'm just not willing to take the risk on a player his age. I'd much rather have Rasmus, and even if Rasmus is not available I'm not sure how I feel about giving up on Jimenez at this point.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Meh. Both could be between replacement level and above average. Baltimore's on the hook for a bad-but-not-terrible contract either way. And you could make the case that they need an outfielder more than a starting pitcher, especially in the second and third years. Like I said, I'd definitely consider it.

Yeah. Disagree. I see Ubaldo as potentially much more valuable. Ethier's platoon splits have always been poor and he crapped on the good side last year. We'd be better off salary dumping Ubaldo and using the offset for a COF than making that trade/deal imo. I wouldn't be shocked to see Ether DFA'd at some point. Maybe 40-45 Mil coming our way then I'd consider it.

[El Gordo]

Duplicate was the wrong word to use. But there was a reason the Orioles released Pearce and only one other team (the Blue Jays) were interested into signing him.

A career average year would be fine: .255 .335 .433 .768 with .869 OPS v LHP. That's a useful player, and I would expect he will do a bit better than that.

[RVAbird]

Yeah. Disagree. I see Ubaldo as potentially much more valuable. Ethier's platoon splits have always been poor and he crapped on the good side last year. We'd be better off salary dumping Ubaldo and using the offset for a COF than making that trade/deal imo. I wouldn't be shocked to see Ether DFA'd at some point.

You could point out Ubaldo's high walk rates and pitch counts just as easily as you could Ethier's platoon splits. They are both warty players coming off poor years. But they do enough well to overcome their faults in good years.

I agree that Jimenez has the higher ceiling. But between his persistent mechanical problems and the fact that throws pitches for a living, I think he presents plenty of risk.

EDIT: You added this after my reply: "Maybe 40-45 Mil coming our way then I'd consider it."

You'd consider dumping a useful pitcher with a bad contract for a useful outfielder on a 3/11 to 3/16 net contract? If you could pull that off, I'd consider it, too.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You could point out Ubaldo's high walk rates and pitch counts just as easily as you could Ethier's platoon splits. They are both warty players coming off poor years. But they do enough well to overcome their faults in good years.

I agree that Jimenez has the higher ceiling. But between his persistent mechanical problems and the fact that throws pitches for a living, I think he presents plenty of risk.

EDIT: You added this after my reply: "Maybe 40-45 Mil coming our way then I'd consider it."

You'd consider dumping a useful pitcher with a bad contract for a useful outfielder on a 3/11 to 3/16 net contract? If you could pull that off, I'd consider it, too.

Yeah, we just disagree on the current valuations of the two players here. At a 1 for 1 swap, 40 mil our way would be my threshold for considering it, not 20. I've actually always liked Ethier but saw very few Dodger games last year than in the past with the TV rights changing. Maybe there is something left that our scouts see, I don't know. I'm skeptical and more comfortable that Ubaldo (who has been consistently inconsistent) can turn things around next year and be the more valuable asset going forward than will Ethier.

Feel free to have the last word.

[srock]

Ethier was a solid and IMO underrated player from 2006-2013 and then fell off the edge of the Earth last year. He played at a higher level (121 OPS+ to Delmon's 99) during the same number of years. Personally I don't see much similarity between the two.

Ethier's contract is beyond ridiculous, no doubt about that, which is unfortunate because I think there's a reasonable chance he could bounce back and be a serviceable player for the next couple of years.

This is my analysis as well. Before last year, Ethier was the modicum consistency putting up high OBP along with decent power.

No, he isn't a CF anymore and yes he is wildly overpaid, but there is reason to believer last year was due to injuries and bad luck.

ESPN 7-11-2014

Mattingly said Friday the benching of Ethier is in part due to an assortment of physical ailments Ethier is dealing with, but performance also has clearly played a part.

If the Dodgers eat enough contract he could be a good aquisition for the next 3 years. They would have to eat half and take only a B prospect in return.

BBRef

2015 33 Los Angeles Dodgers $18,000,000 8.153

2016 34 Los Angeles Dodgers $18,000,000

2017 35 Los Angeles Dodgers $17,500,000

2018 36 Los Angeles Dodgers *$17,500,000 $17.5M Vesting Option, $2.5M Buyout

Earliest Free Agent: 2018

Career to date (may be incomplete) $59,112,000 Does not include future salaries ($53.5M)

You get around 120 OPS+ for $8-9 million a year for the next 3 years playing him in LF/RF for 400 AB's a season, that projects pretty well. And we could use the OBP he brings.

His age and possible decline do make it risky. Rasmus for 1 year $5-$8 million is better on the risk tolerance front.

[Roll Tide]

This is my analysis as well. Before last year, Ethier was the modicum consistency putting up high OBP along with decent power.

No, he isn't a CF anymore and yes he is wildly overpaid, but there is reason to believer last year was due to injuries and bad luck.

ESPN 7-11-2014

If the Dodgers eat enough contract he could be a good aquisition for the next 3 years. They would have to eat half and take only a B prospect in return.

BBRef

2015 33 Los Angeles Dodgers $18,000,000 8.153

2016 34 Los Angeles Dodgers $18,000,000

2017 35 Los Angeles Dodgers $17,500,000

2018 36 Los Angeles Dodgers *$17,500,000 $17.5M Vesting Option, $2.5M Buyout

Earliest Free Agent: 2018

Career to date (may be incomplete) $59,112,000 Does not include future salaries ($53.5M)

You get around 120 OPS+ for $8-9 million a year for the next 3 years playing him in LF/RF for 400 AB's a season, that projects pretty well. And we could use the OBP he brings.

His age and possible decline do make it risky. Rasmus for 1 year $5-$8 million is better on the risk tolerance front.

If they took Ulbaldo's contract and added 6 million per year it's an even deal. Asking for 40 million is just absurd.

[Ruzious]

I find it hard to believe they'd go after Ethier after not doing what it took to keep Markakis.

[24fps]

If they took Ulbaldo's contract and added 6 million per year it's an even deal. Asking for 40 million is just absurd.

I'm not so sure the Dodgers have any business expecting an even deal. I think they need to expect a fair amount of pain if they want to get out from under that disaster of a contract so Friedman can continue to put his stamp on the roster.

[srock]

If they took Ulbaldo's contract and added 6 million per year it's an even deal. Asking for 40 million is just absurd.

I'd be content if they kicked in $27 million because the 4th year is an option the Orioles can likely buy out.

Personally, I'd prefer to keep Ubaldo. His contract isn't a deal breaker and I think he is likely to improve.

I'm not so sure the Dodgers have any business expecting an even deal. I think they need to expect a fair amount of pain if they want to get out from under that disaster of a contract so Friedman can continue to put his stamp on the roster.

Exactly! I don't want Ethier if the price tag is anywhere near what they have signed him for. Make the Dodgers pay out the nose or move on.