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The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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Wow, that's funny I was about to make the same post with the same three charts. Weird.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Dude, you are WAY off. David Lough would never clear waivers. 5 years of team control left. 4.1 WAR over the last 2 seasons despite being a 4th outfielder. I think he could put up a 4+ WAR season if he had the opportunity to play everyday.
He'll put up more WAR than Markakis this year. He might double him.

This is a classic case of falling in love with a statistic compiled during part time play and putting too much credence in it. Ask yourself, if Lough is that good:

- Why was he only a part time player for the Royals in 2013?

- Why did the Royals go out and spend money to get Aoki for the 2014 season?

- Why did the Royals only get Danny Valencia for him in a trade?

- Why didn't Buck play him every day in 2014?

- Why did the Orioles, after watching what Lough had to offer for nearly five months, go out and trade for De Aza?

Don't get me wrong, I see Lough as a useful player with a bit of upside. But you are implying he could be a well above average everyday corner OF, and I think that is highly unlikely.

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Babypowder Hangout Veteran Council

Babypowder

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This is a classic case of falling in love with a statistic compiled during part time play and putting too much credence in it. Ask yourself, if Lough is that good:

- Why was he only a part time player for the Royals in 2013?

- Why did the Royals go out and spend money to get Aoki for the 2014 season?

- Why did the Royals only get Danny Valencia for him in a trade?

- Why didn't Buck play him every day in 2014?

- Why did the Orioles, after watching what Lough had to offer for nearly five months, go out and trade for De Aza?

Don't get me wrong, I see Lough as a useful player with a bit of upside. But you are implying he could be a well above average everyday corner OF, and I think that is highly unlikely.

He was pretty much an everyday player after he got called up mid-season in 2013. As for Aoki, I don't know. That doesn't make sense to me but I have known Dayton Moore to do stuff that doesn't make sense. The Royals got Valencia because he was coming off a good season vs LHP and they needed a platoon partner with Moustakas, they had a roster crunch in the outfield and everyone knew it. It appears Buck did intend him to play against RHP in 2014, he just sucked the first two months of the year and never got out of the doghouse despite playing well after that.

I still don't understand the preference for De Aza. The move worked last year because De Aza was hot when we got him and stayed that way, but going forward Lough and he are similar value offensive players and Lough is in another class defensively. Both flavors of WAR prefer Lough even in far less playing time. The gap in rWAR is very significant. DRS doesn't like De Aza's defense very much and they have him close to replacement level. Lough is the better player, and on top of it he is cheap and under control longer.

I wouldn't predict him being a 4 win player in close to full time play, but I could easily see 3.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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I, too, looked at Davis and Lough's spray charts before posting (not Markakis'). Lough and Davis look pretty similar to me. Except for the balls over the fence.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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This is a classic case of falling in love with a statistic compiled during part time play and putting too much credence in it. Ask yourself, if Lough is that good:

- Why was he only a part time player for the Royals in 2013?

- Why did the Royals go out and spend money to get Aoki for the 2014 season?

- Why did the Royals only get Danny Valencia for him in a trade?

- Why didn't Buck play him every day in 2014?

- Why did the Orioles, after watching what Lough had to offer for nearly five months, go out and trade for De Aza?

Don't get me wrong, I see Lough as a useful player with a bit of upside. But you are implying he could be a well above average everyday corner OF, and I think that is highly unlikely.

I had been holding this in my back pocket. Valencia is a paltry return on any MLB player.

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Beef Supreme Hangout Veteran Council

Beef Supreme

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He was pretty much an everyday player after he got called up mid-season in 2013. As for Aoki, I don't know. That doesn't make sense to me but I have known Dayton Moore to do stuff that doesn't make sense. The Royals got Valencia because he was coming off a good season vs LHP and they needed a platoon partner with Moustakas, they had a roster crunch in the outfield and everyone knew it. It appears Buck did intend him to play against RHP in 2014, he just sucked the first two months of the year and never got out of the doghouse despite playing well after that.

I still don't understand the preference for De Aza. The work worked last year because De Aza was hot when we got him and stayed that way, but going forward Lough and he are similar value offensive players and Lough is in another class defensively. Both flavors of WAR prefer Lough even in far less playing time. The gap in rWAR is very significant. DRS doesn't like De Aza's defense very much and they have him close to replacement level. Lough is the better player, and on top of it he is cheap and under control longer.

I wouldn't predict him being a 4 win player in close to full time play, but I could easily see 3.

Lough started only 14 of KC's 30 games while he was on the roster in 2012. That's not what most people would define as "pretty much an everyday player."

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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He was pretty much an everyday player after he got called up mid-season in 2013. As for Aoki, I don't know. That doesn't make sense to me but I have known Dayton Moore to do stuff that doesn't make sense. The Royals got Valencia because he was coming off a good season vs LHP and they needed a platoon partner with Moustakas, they had a roster crunch in the outfield and everyone knew it. It appears Buck did intend him to play against RHP in 2014, he just sucked the first two months of the year and never got out of the doghouse despite playing well after that.

I still don't understand the preference for De Aza. The work worked last year because De Aza was hot when we got him and stayed that way, but going forward Lough and he are similar value offensive players and Lough is in another class defensively. Both flavors of WAR prefer Lough even in far less playing time. The gap in rWAR is very significant. DRS doesn't like De Aza's defense very much and they have him close to replacement level. Lough is the better player, and on top of it he is cheap and under control longer.

I wouldn't predict him being a 4 win player in close to full time play, but I could easily see 3.

As to De Aza vs. Lough, I think it boils down to the fact that the Orioles believe he's the better offensive player. De Aza has a 100 OPS+ for his career, Lough is at 93. De Aza has a .330 career OBP, Lough is at .308. At .330, De Aza is a plausible leadoff guy, at .308, Lough is not.

In any event, Buck has a nice competitive situation this year with a lot of guys vying for playing time. They'll all get their opportunities, I suspect.

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