The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[webbrick2010]

The fact that Lough can't/doesn't steal bases and was actually picked off several times last year (in a very limited amount of games) greatly lowers his value (IMHO). Not sure that he makes the 25 man roster, I think it more likely that Buck keeps one of his rule 5 guys. Unless Jones gets injured why do they need to worry about a backup center fielder?

[Can_of_corn]

The fact that Lough can't/doesn't steal bases and was actually picked off several times last year (in a very limited amount of games) greatly lowers his value (IMHO). Not sure that he makes the 25 man roster, I think it more likely that Buck keeps one of his rule 5 guys. Unless Jones gets injured why do they need to worry about a backup center fielder?

I don't see Buck suggesting to Dan that he DFA an outfielder so he can keep another bullpen arm.

[MurphDogg]

The fact that Lough can't/doesn't steal bases and was actually picked off several times last year (in a very limited amount of games) greatly lowers his value (IMHO). Not sure that he makes the 25 man roster, I think it more likely that Buck keeps one of his rule 5 guys. Unless Jones gets injured why do they need to worry about a backup center fielder?

Lough was second on the team to Adam Jones in Fangraph's BSR which accounts for all baserunning value including stolen bases and caught stealing. And BSR is a counting stat, which is the only reason Jones beat him. Lough is our best baserunner.

Also, every team has a backup centerfielder.

[Frobby]

Lough was second on the team to Adam Jones in Fangraph's BSR which accounts for all baserunning value including stolen bases and caught stealing. And BSR is a counting stat, which is the only reason Jones beat him. Lough is our best baserunner.

Also, every team has a backup centerfielder.

BB-ref has a stat that is the baserunning component of rWAR, which said Lough was worth zero in that regard. That said, I think Lough did a very good job using his speed to advance when others got hits behind him (62% extra base taken rate). It's a shame his base stealing instincts don't seem very good. Maybe Wayne Kirby can work with him to improve that; it worked for Adam Jones, who used to be terrible at getting a good lead but now does it routinely.

[MurphDogg]

BB-ref has a stat that is the baserunning component of rWAR, which said Lough was worth zero in that regard. That said, I think Lough did a very good job using his speed to advance when others got hits behind him (62% extra base taken rate). It's a shame his base stealing instincts don't seem very good. Maybe Wayne Kirby can work with him to improve that; it worked for Adam Jones, who used to be terrible at getting a good lead but now does it routinely.

The only players that had a value greater than 0 in that stat for the Orioles last year were Jones with 2, Berry with 1, Pearce with 1, and Delmon Young (!) with 1. I'm not going to sit here and say that I know for sure which one is more accurate but in this case I will side with the one that favors Lough over Delmon Young. Young was at 0.3 by Fangraph's metric. Berry was on base 8 times as a pinch runner and accrued a positive value, I suppose his 1/0 SB/CS ratio put him over the top.

[BohKnowsBmore]

As to De Aza vs. Lough, I think it boils down to the fact that the Orioles believe he's the better offensive player. De Aza has a 100 OPS+ for his career, Lough is at 93. De Aza has a .330 career OBP, Lough is at .308. At .330, De Aza is a plausible leadoff guy, at .308, Lough is not.

In any event, Buck has a nice competitive situation this year with a lot of guys vying for playing time. They'll all get their opportunities, I suspect.

De Aza also has 5 straight seasons of .700+ OPS (2010 - 2014). Further, he has a better split vs. RHP if you are looking at him as a half of a platoon, and loses much less against LHP (Admittedly a SSS for Lough, less than 100 PA, but that could be for a reason).

[BohKnowsBmore]

The fact that Lough can't/doesn't steal bases and was actually picked off several times last year (in a very limited amount of games) greatly lowers his value (IMHO). Not sure that he makes the 25 man roster, I think it more likely that Buck keeps one of his rule 5 guys. Unless Jones gets injured why do they need to worry about a backup center fielder?

I think the first part of that question helps answer the second part.

Also, it may be not but a handful of games, but over the past four seasons, AJ has DH'd 3, 1, 4, and 4 games during those seasons, respectively. There may be a few games-talking small handful here- where we have AJ DH to give him a rest (I think in one of those seasons he tweaked his ankle a little bit) and play De Aza, Lough, and Snider from L to R, or something like that.

[Beef Supreme]

Sacrifice bunts to be exact.

Which leaves him with 10 groundouts to the 3rd base side and two hits. A poor approach for a lefty with speed but very little power. Lough has no excuse for trying to pull as many balls as he does.

[Beef Supreme]

Also, every team has a backup centerfielder.

So will the Orioles, regardless of whether it is Lough.

[Beef Supreme]

Lough is our best baserunner.

Neither the Orioles nor I would trust him to pinch-run and steal a base down one run late in a game, which is something most teams want in a pinch runner. If your claim is correct, i think it is more of a reflection on the Orioles players as below average baserunners than it is an indication of Lough being a highly valuable baserunner.

[MurphDogg]

Which leaves him with 10 groundouts to the 3rd base side and two hits. A poor approach for a lefty with speed but very little power. Lough has no excuse for trying to pull as many balls as he does.

I don't know what a typical number of groundouts to the opposite side of the infield is on 141 balls in play but I suspect that 10 is not unreasonable. Also, I count three hits and twice where he reached on an error.

[Beef Supreme]

I don't know what a typical number of groundouts to the opposite side of the infield is on 141 balls in play but I suspect that 10 is not unreasonable. Also, I count three hits and twice where he reached on an error.

Ok. I will go with that count. Not exactly Tony Gwynn, but not too many batters would be in that conversation. I'm still convinced Lough would benefit more than any player on the Orioles by not trying to pull the ball as much as he does. I think we all watched enough games last year to see how pull-happy his approach at the plate is.

[srock]

Do all teams just get a .651 OPS for other? Is that replacement level?

Now I'm wondering if there is a way to look at how good a team is at beating the 700 PA's of replacement level. Its like a measure of who is winning the bottom of the roster competition.

I'm sure it correlates with injuries, but still, every team has some number of PA's go to lower tier players. What impact does it have if those guys are are .2 OPS higher then replacement level?

[MurphDogg]

Neither the Orioles nor I would trust him to pinch-run and steal a base down one run late in a game, which is something most teams want in a pinch runner. If your claim is correct, i think it is more of a reflection on the Orioles players as below average baserunners than it is an indication of Lough being a highly valuable baserunner.

There are very few players in the Majors that I would want attempting to steal a base down one run late in the game, especially as a pinch runner. The break-even rate on stealing second base is about 75 percent and there were 27 players last year that stole 20 bases and exceeded that rate. Of course, late in a close game teams are guarding more against the stolen base, especially with a pinch runner coming in, so a guy with an 80 percent success rate for the season probably still wouldn't have a 75 percent success rate in that situation. I probably wouldn't be comfortable sending a pinch runner in a clear stolen base situation unless his success rate was near 85 percent.

You are correct that the Orioles aren't a great baserunning team. Even though Lough is second on the Orioles in the aforementioned Fangraphs metric, he is 43rd in the Majors, though again as a counting stat the fact that he had only 197 plate appearances is a huge factor. In a full season at that rate he would be around the bottom of the top 10 (though he probably wouldn't maintain that rate as he was used extensively as a pinch-runner last season). In his 19 pinch running appearances last season he was 1-2 on stolen base attempts.

[MurphDogg]

I think we all watched enough games last year to see how pull-happy his approach at the plate is.

I don't think you have a consensus on that.