Would you consider putting Britton in the rotation at the start of 2016?

[Tony-OH]

I was against trying Johnson as a starter again just like I am with Britton. Zach found what works for him and that's pounding the zone with his sinker while throwing in an occasional slider. That's probably not going to work the second time through an order and I'm not convinced he could keep that kind of movement over 100 pitches.

If Britton was throwing at least two dominant pitches I'd consider it, but honestly, the Orioles need to just pay to keep Chen and keep Britton where he's at.

[Phantom]

Why would we assume similar production with him being forced to use less effective pitch types?

I wouldn't. We don't need similar production to get way, way more value.

[Can_of_corn]

I wouldn't. We don't need similar production to get way, way more value.

Would you get that much more value?

I think Britton replicating Chen's numbers would be an optimistic result right?

fWAR has Chen at 1.2 wins and Britton at 1.1 wins. rWAR has it at Chen at 1.9 and Britton at 1.3.

I'm not seeing way, way more value.

Are you projecting Britton as a 4 win starter?

[beervendor]

Why would we assume similar production with him being forced to use less effective pitch types?

Yes, he'd probably have to make an adjustment to go 2,3,4 times thru the order. No sinker-slider guy has ever been able to crack that code.

[TINSTAAPP]

Why would we assume similar production with him being forced to use less effective pitch types?

I'm perplexed how people aren't able to understand this. When Britton was having control issues and battling problems with consistency as a starter, he had a repertoire of 70% fastballs, 20% sliders and 10% changeups. Since he's been a reliever, he's thrown 90% fastballs, 10% sliders and gotten rid of his changeup. It's unrealistic to expect Britton to be as effective as a starter throwing 90% fastballs. And when he had more variety in his repertoire, he was ineffective and his command was very inconsistent. What makes people think he would be any good as a starter? Everything about him screams reliever.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, he'd probably have to make an adjustment to go 2,3,4 times thru the order. No sinker-slider guy has ever been able to crack that code.

You do realize that his pitch usage numbers are unusual even for a reliever right?

[Can_of_corn]

I'm perplexed how people aren't able to understand this. When Britton was having control issues and battling problems with consistency as a starter, he had a repertoire of 70% fastballs, 20% sliders and 10% changeups. Since he's been a reliever, he's thrown 90% fastballs, 10% sliders and gotten rid of his changeup. It's unrealistic to expect Britton to be as effective as a starter throwing 90% fastballs. And when he had more variety in his repertoire, he was ineffective and his command was very inconsistent. What makes people think he would be any good as a starter? Everything about him screams reliever.

The 70% fastball numbers include his 4 seam fastball which he has also pretty much shelved.

[Phantom]

I'm not seeing way, way more value.

Are you projecting Britton as a 4 win starter?

I think he definitely has that upside.

Chen is a bit of an unfair comparison since advanced stats at least appear to not match up with production (far more than defense can account for).

Leaving ZB as a reliever caps his value at 1.5-2 wins a year (1 fWAR last season on pace for 2 this year). All has has to do to equal that ceiling as a starter is be as good as these pitchers were in 2014:

Henderson Alvarez

Kyle Lohse

Josh Collmenter

Jarred Cosart

and so on. I think he could easily be better than that.

Additionally, not all value is created equal in the free agent or draft market.

[Can_of_corn]

I think he definitely has that upside.

Chen is a bit of an unfair comparison since advanced stats at least appear to not match up with production (far more than defense can account for).

Leaving ZB as a reliever caps his value at 1.5-2 wins a year (1 fWAR last season on pace for 2 this year). All has has to do to equal that ceiling as a starter is be as good as these pitchers were in 2014:

Henderson Alvarez

Kyle Lohse

Josh Collmenter

Jarred Cosart

and so on. I think he could easily be better than that.

Additionally, not all value is created equal in the free agent or draft market.

I think that since, in your scenario, Britton would be replacing Chen in the rotation he makes a fine comparison, particularly when he is the beneficiary of the same defense.

As for equaling his production as a starter, you are the one that said "way, way more value". Maybe your definition of way, way more value is different then mine but with that second way in there I figured you for at least a 3.5 win projection.

[beervendor]

You do realize that his pitch usage numbers are unusual even for a reliever right?

Yes - being a successful closer with unusual pitch usage proves he cannot possibly be a successful starter with unusual pitch usage.

No one thinks this would be a slam dunk. I don't even advocate it. Far better to strengthen the rotation from within or FA than introduce question marks at BOTH SP and closer (as well as the back end of the bullpen from whence the new closer might come). I said originally *if* there's a team need (remains to be seen) and *if* there's reason to think he'd be successful (clearly debatable), it would be worth a look.

[wildcard]

I was against trying Johnson as a starter again just like I am with Britton. Zach found what works for him and that's pounding the zone with his sinker while throwing in an occasional slider. That's probably not going to work the second time through an order and I'm not convinced he could keep that kind of movement over 100 pitches.

If Britton was throwing at least two dominant pitches I'd consider it, but honestly, the Orioles need to just pay to keep Chen and keep Britton where he's at.

It would be very unOrioleslike for the O's to pay Chen what Boras will be asking for him.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes - being a successful closer with unusual pitch usage proves he cannot possibly be a successful starter with unusual pitch usage.

No one thinks this would be a slam dunk. I don't even advocate it. Far better to strengthen the rotation from within or FA than introduce question marks at BOTH SP and closer (as well as the back end of the bullpen from whence the new closer might come). I said originally *if* there's a team need (remains to be seen) and *if* there's reason to think he'd be successful (clearly debatable), it would be worth a look.

Can you give an example of a successful major league starter, that wasn't a knuckleball pitcher, who used one pitch 90% of the time?

I'm checking the numbers from the last few years and the league leaders in FB% for starters are a bit over 70% Britton is about 90%.

[Phantom]

I think that since, in your scenario, Britton would be replacing Chen in the rotation he makes a fine comparison, particularly when he is the beneficiary of the same defense.

I'm a big, BIG fWAR believer, but I think if Britton was putting up a Chen (2.78) ERA, he would have 2.5ish WAR right now. So yeah, I'd love him to do that.

As for equaling his production as a starter, you are the one that said "way, way more value". Maybe your definition of way, way more value is different then mine but with that second way in there I figured you for at least a 3.5 win projection.

What I said was, "We don't need similar production to get way, way more value." which is 100% true. I can find a lot of starters with far worse stats than Britton worth a lot more value.

[Phantom]

Can you give an example of a successful major league starter, that wasn't a knuckleball pitcher, who used one pitch 90% of the time?

I'm checking the numbers from the last few years and the league leaders in FB% for starters are a bit over 70% Britton is about 90%.

Fangraphs has Colon at 85% Fastball (82) last year with Lance Lynn hovering around 80. Not sure if that is a mix of fastball types.

And, just to be clear, I don't think anyone is arguing that we throw him in the rotation no questions asked. I just think it's a good idea not to rule it out, and I don't think there's a lot of downside to trying it (both in odds and in total loss).

[srock]

1. Britton didn't have the command of his sinker as a starter that he does now as a reliever.

2. His slider looks like a pretty good pitch to me. He doesn't throw it much because he doesn't have to. Would love to know the numbers on his slider. I don't recall a batter hitting one.

3. Can Britton get away with 80-90% sinkers as a starter? Did anyone think he would dominate with a 90% ratio as a reliever (before he actually did it)?

4. Three big questions. a) Would Britton's sinker lose effectiveness as a game wore on? It might lose velocity but he might still get movement and outs. b) is Britton's shoulder still an issue and would it hold up over 150-200 innings? c) Does Britton really want to leave the security of his current job and risk losing a pretty nice career for a chance at something potentially bigger?

He didn't throw 96-97 as a starter. And I doubt he can throw 96 for 100 pitches. At 90-92, is his sinker still effective?

I'm skeptical, but it could be worth trying it out in spring training. Let him prepare for it in the offseason, stretch him out the first half of ST. Not hard to move him back to closer in the last week of ST if he can't go deep in games. If his stuff is still nasty at 70 pitches and he can throw his 4 seamer and slider enough to keep guys honest, then give it a go.

I don't think it would be detrimental to his preparation, its just stretching him out for multiple innings. They do that anyway, this would be just be stretching out a little bit more.