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I Think I Would Let Wieters Go

Jagwar

By Jagwar
in Orioles Talk

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McLovin Veteran All-Star

McLovin

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What happens if (a) we make a qualifying offer to Wieters, (b) he turns it down, and © does not sign with another club until after the (June?) cutoff date next season? Do we still get a draft pick if no team has to forfeit one to sign him?

This is the most likely scenario. Who the heck is going to sign a catcher who hasn't done anything since 2013, AND who costs a 1st round pick, AND who will want a Boras contract?

I think all of the angst around should they/shouldn't they is a waste of thought - if they offer the QO, he'll probably just have to wait until June to sign a Cruz type trial deal.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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They might, and I have nothing to gauge it on, except for what is said in the media, which we know, isn't always true.

I think now with slotting, its might be better, but before slotting, didnt some Boras picks slip a bit, because teams didnt want to deal with him?

Really more that teams didn't want to pay for the player. Boras represented players with leverage and many teams didn't want to negotiate with players in a position to demand well above suggested slot.

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Haystacks A-Ball

Haystacks

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Let's see. Let's gamble 15M on a player who we don't really need all that much so we can get a comp pick that has a less than 10% chance of being a ML regular? Hey, you can make the case that he won't accept. You (I mean Weams) can make the case that we can trade him (we might have to eat 4-5M) if he does. I would make the case that the risk (even if it's only 5%) is not worth a comp pick.

Me, I'll let Wieters walk with no QO, with no risk, not get a comp pick, and spend that 15-16M on something we really need. You can take the risk, most likely win, and get both. Still, a comp pick is not worth the risk.

Comp picks have value. It's hard to quantify but looking at the articles that have tried a low end estimate is five million.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-is-a-compensation-pick-worth/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/matthew-murphy-3-post-bringing-it-all-together/

So if Wieters is 5% to accept the QO then the Orioles gain approx five million in value 95% of the time and lose five million (the amount of contact needed to be taken on to move him) 5% of the time. Given the budget constraints the Orioles operate under giving up an edge this large is not an option. Cost controlled talent is too important.

However, if you think the Orioles are bonafide contenders in 2016 then the risk/reward changes somewhat in that those 2016 dollars lost if he accepts the QO are particularly harmful.

I think the chances Wieters accepts a QO are indeed about 5% and the offer should be made.

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24fps Hangout Grand Counsel

24fps

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This is the most likely scenario. Who the heck is going to sign a catcher who hasn't done anything since 2013, AND who costs a 1st round pick, AND who will want a Boras contract?

I think all of the angst around should they/shouldn't they is a waste of thought - if they offer the QO, he'll probably just have to wait until June to sign a Cruz type trial deal.

If Wieters and his brain trust figured there was the slightest possibility of this happening, why wouldn't they accept the QO and the $17 million. He's a FA after 2016 either way and nobody is likely to pay him 2/3rds of $17 million for four months work

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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They HAVE to offer the QO. The risk is worth the reward. We sacrificed a lot of talent infusion trying to compete the last few years' date=' now is when you have to start building that back up.[/quote']

Like someone mentioned (crazysilver I think). Weams and others keep saying we have all these draft pics...perspective. How well have we done with draft picks? What are the statistical odds of that pick being a MLB proven player? Probably less than 25%.

I would rather let MW go then overpay for this overrated self. BIG PASS.

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Reboulet'sStache Veteran All-Star

Reboulet'sStache

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Like someone mentioned (crazysilver I think). Weams and others keep saying we have all these draft pics...perspective. How well have we done with draft picks? What are the statistical odds of that pick being a MLB proven player? Probably less than 25%.

I would rather let MW go then overpay for this overrated self. BIG PASS.

This makes zero sense. If I'm a horrible shot, the solution isn't to limit the amount of rounds I have to work with. It's to increase them.

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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This makes zero sense. If I'm a horrible shot' date=' the solution isn't to limit the amount of rounds I have to work with. It's to increase them.[/quote']

SO you think Matt Wieters is worth $17 million a year? You don't think that $17 Million is best used elsewhere when we have a pretty good catcher in Joseph that is a more vocal leader?

I do. I would rather try to replace Davis' bat (good luck there) and improve the starting pitching.

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Crabcakes AAA

Crabcakes

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Wieters is making 8.3 mil this year. The QO for 2016, I've heard, will be about 16.3 mil. If the O's do the QO that about doubles his salary, if he takes it. But, it's only for one year. It's a gamble for Wieters to take it, less so for the O's; they can dump him next year if he continues his mediocrity....that's why no player takes the offer. Wieters (& everyone else in the same situation) wants a multi-year contract; doesn't matter with whom.

Truthfully, if I was the decision maker for the O's, I let him walk. Why would I want to double his pay & hope? Particularly when I have about the same production (& better defense & baserunning) with current players under contract? QO Davis (presently $12 mil)& Chen ($11.38). That's where the comp picks will come from....not Wieters. Offer Pearce ($3.7) & DDay ($5.8) a bit more money each.....if they walk, so be it.

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Reboulet'sStache Veteran All-Star

Reboulet'sStache

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SO you think Matt Wieters is worth $17 million a year? You don't think that $17 Million is best used elsewhere when we have a pretty good catcher in Joseph that is a more vocal leader?

I do. I would rather try to replace Davis' bat (good luck there) and improve the starting pitching.

No, but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.

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Rene88 Hangout Grand Counsel

Rene88

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No' date=' but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.[/quote']

Fair enough. Agree to disagree. As you probably know, I am not a MW fan at all. Time will tell.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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No' date=' but I think the risk is worth the reward. I think at around 7 million a WAR, Wieters could be a 2 WAR player, maybe a little less, maybe a little more. So it's not a 17 million dollar gamble.[/quote']

But it is a $17M misuse of resources. And lets add that Clevenger is out of options.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

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