Jump to content

Stop drafting pitchers in the first round


Ori-Al

Recommended Posts

By my count the top 30 pitchers in rWAR since 1990 came from:

College or Community College: 13

High School: 12

Amateur Free Agents: 5

I wouldn't pass on that kind of quality as a matter of policy or philosophy.

Is their any trend with those pitchers pitching in pitchers parks at all?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 89
  • Created
  • Last Reply

IMO, there is a more value in an above average pre-FA pitcher than a position player. Good, cheap pitching, like what the Mets have, is IMO the easiest way to compete in MLB.

Teams fall all over themselves for mediocre pitching veterans like when Paul Byrd received a 3/$21M contract or when a team gave the averageness of Scott Feldman $10M or so per year. I don't have evidence to back it up, but IMO FA pitching costs more than FA hitting - whether it is a below average/average/above average player.

It's why you draft and develop pitchers before hitters IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a real simple one for me.

You draft the best player available. Period the end. Need can be a tie-breaker.

Its really that simple. Draft the best player you can wait and hope for the best. If they are successful you win! If not, you get fired :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a real simple one for me.

You draft the best player available. Period the end. Need can be a tie-breaker.

Its really that simple. Draft the best player you can wait and hope for the best. If they are successful you win! If not, you get fired :)

We never do that, especially after the first round. Were always passing on better talents for more affordable players. It's one of the reason our trade value was handicapped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We never do that, especially after the first round. Were always passing on better talents for more affordable players. It's one of the reason our trade value was handicapped.

The Orioles have been putrid at developing pitchers for 20 years. They basically developed Mussina, McDonald, and perhaps Gausman.

The Orioes are poor at developing position players. What do they really have to show for the 2000s?

Machado could've been developed by anybody.

Markakis was a good player who came up short power wise. Wieters by all account has been a disappointment at the plate.

Roberts was a good player that came through the system.

Schoop has been developed but struggles with the Adam Jones (OBP) doesn't matter disease.

Outside of that who have they developed???

They haven't developed a power hitting 1Bman since Eddie Murray.

I didn't count Jones, Davis, Chen, Gonzales, and Tillman as they came from other systems.

Britton was expected to be a TOR lefty and he has recovered from injuries to become a very good 1 pitch closer.

The problem hasn't changed regardless of the GM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Orioles have been putrid at developing pitchers for 20 years. They basically developed Mussina, McDonald, and perhaps Gausman.

The Orioes are poor at developing position players. What do they really have to show for the 2000s?

Machado could've been developed by anybody.

Markakis was a good player who came up short power wise. Wieters by all account has been a disappointment at the plate.

Roberts was a good player that came through the system.

Schoop has been developed but struggles with the Adam Jones (OBP) doesn't matter disease.

Outside of that who have they developed???

They haven't developed a power hitting 1Bman since Eddie Murray.

I didn't count Jones, Davis, Chen, Gonzales, and Tillman as they came from other systems.

Britton was expected to be a TOR lefty and he has recovered from injuries to become a very good 1 pitch closer.

The problem hasn't changed regardless of the GM.

First of all, yes Tillman pitched in the Mariners system. To A Ball. For a total of ~160 innings. He pitched somewhere around 500 innings in the Orioles Minor league system...Sure he wasn't originally chosen by the Orioles, but he sure was developed by them.

As for your batters, to not count Wieters (who has been an all star), Markakis (who despite his flaws was an obvious fan favorite, team leader and all around good player most of his time here) and Schoop (for God knows what, because his OBP isn't high enough? Even though he is OPSing over .800 and is one of the better defensive 2b's in the league, and he's only 23) is pretty darn foolish if you ask me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The also developed Bedard, Tillman, and Britton (who became a closer.)

Yes they did develop Bedard and I thought about him while typing that post. Was surprised I left him off. Also Bedard was another of the many that went through surgery and a serious arm injury.

They did not develop Tillman as he came through Seattle's system just like Jones.

I did mention Britton and another serious arm injury(shoulder) and as I said he's basically a one pitch pitcher. I'm happy with what he's done but the expectations were TOR and they could use him in the rotation if not for the injury.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First of all, yes Tillman pitched in the Mariners system. To A Ball. For a total of ~160 innings. He pitched somewhere around 500 innings in the Orioles Minor league system...Sure he wasn't originally chosen by the Orioles, but he sure was developed by them.

As for your batters, to not count Wieters (who has been an all star), Markakis (who despite his flaws was an obvious fan favorite, team leader and all around good player most of his time here) and Schoop (for God knows what, because his OBP isn't high enough? Even though he is OPSing over .800 and is one of the better defensive 2b's in the league, and he's only 23) is pretty darn foolish if you ask me.

Weiters despite being an all star has underperformed with the bat. So much so that there is a seriously long thread debating offering him arbitration. I basically agree with what you said about Markakis so I don't understand your beef. Schoop is another story, I'm not saying he's a bust by any stretch of the imagination.

I think you totally missed the point of my post!! I'm not all that surprised since you obviously decided to engage in name calling.

The guys I mentioned are basically all the Orioles have to show from their drafting and developmental efforts for 15 years or more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you aren't going to include Tillman, then you have to include Arietta don't you??

I don't know why the O's have seemingly less success at drafting pitchers than other organizations. I can't explain why pitchers are so "fragile" now as compared to 25 years ago. I wonder if teams should look at the potential draftee's long history, not just recent performances. Youth sports has certainly changed, I'm not sure necessarily for the better. Kids throwing curves at 11 or 12...youth hockey kids playing 3-45 minute games in one day at tournaments. I often wonder whether their arms and joints are stressed too much while they are maturing. It wasn't so long ago when 200+ innings were the norm and 150 pitches per game were also. That was in an era when weight lifting and workouts were a dirty word for ball players. Today we tweak pitchers and their arm angles often. A former ML player told me once at a clinic to watch a kid throw a snowball or a rock, that is his normal motion. If you change it does it increase the chance for arm injuries?? I know LL has pitch count limits, but I wish they would consider some for curves and other "unnatural trick" pitches until a later age. I know Bundy (or his father) was a fanatic about conditioning and throwing. I wonder if that should have been seen as a possible signal to avoid him He certainly doesn't have the frame that is typical for the velocity he threw at. We focus on the O's, but TJ surgery has become a normal everyday occurrence throughout baseball. It good be a case of just being lucky rather than good when drafting anybody, not just pitchers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Orioles have been putrid at developing pitchers for 25 years. They basically developed Mussina, McDonald, and perhaps Gausman.

The also developed Bedard, Tillman, and Britton (who became a closer.)
Yes they did develop Bedard and I thought about him while typing that post. Was surprised they left him off. Also Bedard was another of the many that went through surgery and a serious arm injury.

They did not develop Tillman as he came through Seattle's system, just like Jones.

I did mention Britton and another serious arm injury(shoulder) and as I said he's basically a one pitch pitcher. I'm happy with what he's done but the expectations were TOR and they could use him in the rotation if not for the injury.

They did develop Tillman, and he WAS NOT "just like Jones."

Jones immediately became the Orioles' starting centerfielder when he arrived in 2008.

Tillman, on the other hand, never pitched higher than the Advanced-A level when he was with Seattle, AND he was awful at that level.

With Advanced-A High Desert in 2007, Tillman had a 5.26 ERA and a 1.510 WHIP.

After he arrived with the Orioles' organization, Tillman became one of the four "AA boys" (Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Chris Tillman, David Hernandez), who combined to win 48 games with 5 complete games and 3 shutouts in a 5-month season for AA-Bowie in 2008. Tillman was 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA, and a 1.327 WHIP for his part in the quartet.

The following season (2009), Tillman and the other 3 previously mentioned pitchers all started the season at AAA-Norfolk. Tillman was 8-6 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP for the AAA-Tides before being promoted to the Orioles in late July of that season.

Tillman then bounced back and forth between the Orioles and the AAA-Tides in 2010 and 2011 before finally breaking through and pitching well on a consistent basis in 2012.

Therefore, I believe that the Orioles developing Tillman based on his level of pitching and his progress at said levels is a much stronger case than claiming that the Mariners developed him because of the fact that they drafted him, particularly with him having pitched very badly at the Advanced-A level (the highest level that he ever pitched for them) while he was there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pitching at High Desert must be as tough as it gets

That same season (2007), Tillman pitched a Low-A Wisconsin, where he had a 3.55 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP.

The season before that (2006), he pitched in the Rookie League and the Advanced rookie Leagues ...... where he had an ERA of 5.28 and a WHIP of 1.761 at the 2 levels combined. He only started games in the Advanced-Rookie Leagues, where he had a 7.78 ERA and a 2.034 WHIP in the 5 games that he started there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • I honestly think there is very little difference in most the teams that made the playoffs.  The most wins was 98 wins and there was 12 teams with 86 wins or more.  It also seems that many of the teams are on the same page with scouting and analytics now hitting wise.  Years back you had moneyball which the A’s used before anyone else.  Then the Astros and few teams started with analytics and seemed to be ahead of the rest of the league but they have caught up now imo.  Now the move seems to be on launch angle and hitting homers by getting the ball in the air but that seems to be across the league.  Obviously some teams have more money and more talented players but the strategy seems about the same.  The main differences I see is in pitching in the playoffs which is bullpen games and using openers rather then a starter to go 7 innings and carry your team to win now a slight sign of trouble they are taking them out.  With all these short inning guys and pitching them in certain pockets we are seeing very little offense and the hitting with runners in scoring position has been awful.  It all comes down to RISP at bats and getting 1 or 2 big base hits in those situations.  We just haven’t been able to get those hits so far in short series.  
    • And we've seen similar with Kjerstad. Kjerstad might be the best pure hitting prospect in the Orioles system of recent years besides Gunnar. I want to see him playing everyday next year is possible none of this sitting him versus LHP more often than not. These prospects need to get their reps and stop treating them like John Lowenstein and Benny Ayala.
    • I don’t see Elias trading off prospects anymore at least top guys.  We have moved a few guys in last year and I expect they try to build that back up.  They should have money to use if they want to add talent.  
    • Blah, well Rob Manfred has to be happy along with Fox network. A Yankees-Mets World Series match up is still on the table and the Dodgers as well if they win tomorrow. I knew the Royals would get jettisoned by the Yankees without too much of a fight.
    • For Mountcastle …Maybe Chase Petty and Tristan Smith?
    • I’m guessing they ask for Mayo or Basallo of Kjerstad. For me …I’d give them Kjerstad since he’s defensively challenged IMO. Maybe Kjerstad, McDermott, Beavers, and O’Ferrall? 
    • 192 wins in two seasons is a pretty strong argument to stay the course.  That said, I wonder if the young players wouldn't be better off long-term if the scientific matchups took a back seat to the raw talent a little more than we've seen.  Overthinking something can be a thing you know.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...