Jump to content

Predict Our FA's Contracts


Bahama O's Fan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 32
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Resigning Chen, Davis and Wieters probably won't be possible. But I believe they should make sure they keep at least two of those three. If we are really trying to compete every year, you can't let everyone good walk. Looking back at the Yankees, the reason they were so good in the 90s and early 2000s was they kept their good players... and simply added. They almost NEVER let a really good homegrown talent walk.

I understand we have a budget. But still... if we can't keep our own guys - and neither are what I'd call "superstars" necessarily - then we're the Rays, but without the great development program or long string of early 1st-round draft picks. And that doesn't auger well for next season or beyond.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Resigning Chen, Davis and Wieters probably won't be possible. But I believe they should make sure they keep at least two of those three. If we are really trying to compete every year, you can't let everyone good walk. Looking back at the Yankees, the reason they were so good in the 90s and early 2000s was they kept their good players... and simply added. They almost NEVER let a really good homegrown talent walk.

I understand we have a budget. But still... if we can't keep our own guys - and neither are what I'd call "superstars" necessarily - then we're the Rays, but without the great development program or long string of early 1st-round draft picks. And that doesn't auger well for next season or beyond.

Look at the Phillies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of the group, I think Wieters is the most likely to return. He could well take the QO and try to build on the numbers. I think the O's are in a pickle as to what to do here. Davis almost has to stay and I say that knowing that the numbers do not work. However, losing him unless there is a big replacement will cost Adam Jones' heart and Manny/Schoop will be gone too.

I would have these offers on the table on Monday:

QO's to Chen, Davis, Wieters and O'Day

I'd offer

Chris 7/160

Chen 6/75

Manny 10/200

Wishful thinking...but that's what I'd do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of the group, I think Wieters is the most likely to return. He could well take the QO and try to build on the numbers. I think the O's are in a pickle as to what to do here. Davis almost has to stay and I say that knowing that the numbers do not work. However, losing him unless there is a big replacement will cost Adam Jones' heart and Manny/Schoop will be gone too.

I would have these offers on the table on Monday:

QO's to Chen, Davis, Wieters and O'Day

I'd offer

Chris 7/160

Chen 6/75

Manny 10/200

Wishful thinking...but that's what I'd do.

Zero chance Wieters takes the QO. There was a small chance before when it was looking like he would finish with a sub .700 OPS, but he is finishing strong. Someone will give him 3-4 years at 50 + million. Won't be us.....I hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of the group, I think Wieters is the most likely to return. He could well take the QO and try to build on the numbers. I think the O's are in a pickle as to what to do here. Davis almost has to stay and I say that knowing that the numbers do not work. However, losing him unless there is a big replacement will cost Adam Jones' heart and Manny/Schoop will be gone too.

I would have these offers on the table on Monday:

QO's to Chen, Davis, Wieters and O'Day

I'd offer

Chris 7/160

Chen 6/75

Manny 10/200

Wishful thinking...but that's what I'd do.

10/250 gets us Manny....if we are lucky. More likely he asks for 10/300 or waits it out until free agency.

Also, you can't (and we won't) QO O'Day. Can't pay a reliever 15 mil for one season. He will get half that annually on the open market in a best case scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Resigning Chen, Davis and Wieters probably won't be possible. But I believe they should make sure they keep at least two of those three. If we are really trying to compete every year, you can't let everyone good walk. Looking back at the Yankees, the reason they were so good in the 90s and early 2000s was they kept their good players... and simply added. They almost NEVER let a really good homegrown talent walk.

I understand we have a budget. But still... if we can't keep our own guys - and neither are what I'd call "superstars" necessarily - then we're the Rays, but without the great development program or long string of early 1st-round draft picks. And that doesn't auger well for next season or beyond.

While cheering on the Orioles in the stands on a rainy, cold, wet, drizzly night, and also riding on the Light Rail after the game: Fans there are saying that Angelos/Duquette MUST bring Chris Davis back. One of them mentioned that "Adam Jones went to see Angelos about Chris Davis." He was certain that AJ's action would result in CD being resigned.

These fans' thoughts might be futile. There is a good chance of a big loss in revenue if most of the top O's FAs are allowed to walk. Fans that I talk with are deathly afraid of another round of 14 years of losing sesaons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of you are way low on Parra. His #'s on the season will be looked at rather than what he put up in the SSS here. Markakis got 4/40 last season coming off a worse season and two years older.

Markakis' contract was widely panned by almost everyone. It's hard to find someone outside of the Braves' FO and Frobby who thought that was a good deal. And yet he's better than Parra. Parra's OPS was better than league for only the 2nd time in his career, and he has a career OPS+ of 96. Markakis, after last year, had one season ever under 100, and a career mark of 113.

Someone might overpay on Parra, but if he gets over $30M coming off an abysmal set of defensive metrics and a career 96 OPS+ someone's been taking hits off a crack pipe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chen 5/80

Davis 6/138

Wieters 4/56

O'Day 3/25.5

Pearce 2/12

Parra 3/24

These are not what I would pay but what I feel will be in the ballpark numbers. Not that that means a whole lot with

some of the teams that could be throwing money around. Wish we could keep Chen,Davis and O"Day,cant stand to think of

losing any of our good pitchers or our main power source.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of you are way low on Parra. His #'s on the season will be looked at rather than what he put up in the SSS here. Markakis got 4/40 last season coming off a worse season and two years older.

Nick got 4/44. And it was seen as the second worst FA contract from last off-season. Scherzer was seen as the worst.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chen: 5/75

Davis: 6/150

Wieters: 4/60

Oday: 4/28

Pearce: 2/6

Parra: 4/30

A lot of you are way low on Parra. His #'s on the season will be looked at rather than what he put up in the SSS here. Markakis got 4/40 last season coming off a worse season and two years older. The only of these guys I am interested in bringing back are Davis and maybe Parra as the left handed half of a platoon (if his price tag is lower than I'm predicting).

I think his career numbers on offense and his stark decline on defense will be looked at.

I think he could go for as low as 2/10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  
    • And or give up picks for QO pitchers 
    • They've averaged 92 wins a year the last 3 years in the most difficult environment in the sport with basically the greatest disadvantages in the sport. Something tells me they know a hell of a lot more about this than you do.    
    • Not when they aren't worthy. At minimum the hitting coaches should be el gonezo
    • That is the sign of a stable and successful organization.  Firing people.  Who could argue that?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...