Is the Blue Jays' competitive window closing?

[mdbdotcom]

The team architect sold the farm at the trade deadline to go for it now. They made it as far as the ALCS. His new boss said that he strongly disagreed with giving up so much talent, so the team architect, having just been named MLB Executive of the Year, decided to move on.

Their three most effective starters, Price, Estrada, and Buehrle, are all free agents. Their 4th most effective starter, R.A. Dickey, will be 41 next season.

The starting shortstop, who will make $20mm a year through 2019 and $14mm in 2020, hasn't played in more than 128 games since 2011.

The heart of their lineup is getting on in years. Next year they will be:

- Dondaldson 30

- Bautista 35

- Encarnacion 33

- Martin 33

- Tulowitzki 31

After making it to the ALCS in 2015, will Rogers Communications capitalize on their success this year and go all in for 2016? Will they put up the dollars to give the fans the championship they deserve?

Or, will they refuse to do the right thing and just count their money while the Blue Jays slip back in the pack, waiting another 20 years before their next playoff appearance?

In short, the Blue Jays are in a situation not terribly dissimilar to the one the O's were in after last season. Since it's usually easier to rationally discuss a situation in which one is not emotionally involved, I thought I would throw this up here and see what folks think about the Blue Jays' options.

Two questions:

1. What would you do if you ran the Blue Jays?

2. Is your answer consistent with your assessment of what the Orioles did last off-season?

[wildcard]

The team architect sold the farm at the trade deadline to go for it now. They made it as far as the ALCS. His new boss said that he strongly disagreed with giving up so much talent, so the team architect, having just been named MLB Executive of the Year, decided to move on.

Their three most effective starters, Price, Estrada, and Buehrle, are all free agents. Their 4th most effective starter, R.A. Dickey, will be 41 next season.

The starting shortstop, who will make $20mm a year through 2019 and $14mm in 2020, hasn't played in more than 128 games since 2011.

The heart of their lineup is getting on in years. Next year they will be:

- Dondaldson 30

- Bautista 35

- Encarnacion 33

- Martin 33

- Tulowitzki 31

After making it to the ALCS in 2015, will Rogers Communications capitalize on their success this year and go all in for 2016? Will they put up the dollars to give the fans the championship they deserve?

Or, will they refuse to do the right thing and just count their money while the Blue Jays slip back in the pack, waiting another 20 years before their next playoff appearance?

In short, the Blue Jays are in a situation not terribly dissimilar to the one the O's were in after last season. Since it's usually easier to rationally discuss a situation in which one is not emotionally involved, I thought I would throw this up here and see what folks think about the Blue Jays' options.

Two questions:

1. What would you do if you ran the Blue Jays?

2. Is your answer consistent with your assessment of what the Orioles did last off-season?

Blue Jays aren't in the same situation. They have a bigger market and Rogers has deeper pockets.

[weams]

The team architect sold the farm at the trade deadline to go for it now. They made it as far as the ALCS. His new boss said that he strongly disagreed with giving up so much talent, so the team architect, having just been named MLB Executive of the Year, decided to move on.

Their three most effective starters, Price, Estrada, and Buehrle, are all free agents. Their 4th most effective starter, R.A. Dickey, will be 41 next season.

The starting shortstop, who will make $20mm a year through 2019 and $14mm in 2020, hasn't played in more than 128 games since 2011.

The heart of their lineup is getting on in years. Next year they will be:

- Dondaldson 30

- Bautista 35

- Encarnacion 33

- Martin 33

- Tulowitzki 31

After making it to the ALCS in 2015, will Rogers Communications capitalize on their success this year and go all in for 2016? Will they put up the dollars to give the fans the championship they deserve?

Or, will they refuse to do the right thing and just count their money while the Blue Jays slip back in the pack, waiting another 20 years before their next playoff appearance?

In short, the Blue Jays are in a situation not terribly dissimilar to the one the O's were in after last season. Since it's usually easier to rationally discuss a situation in which one is not emotionally involved, I thought I would throw this up here and see what folks think about the Blue Jays' options.

Two questions:

1. What would you do if you ran the Blue Jays?

2. Is your answer consistent with your assessment of what the Orioles did last off-season?

I would sell my assets before they aged. Especially now that any failures could be blamed on prior regimes. Go young and rely on young pitching.

The Situation is completely different because of regime change. Besides, the Jays went all in for 2015. Not to build for a run. They lost. Live with it.

[gmelson26]

I don't know enough about their minor systems, current contracts, or expected salary limitations to begin knowing what they could or might do.

That being said, what you said is true, but I will buffer it with this: they hope to get a full season of Devon Travis, who could very well be an All-Star if he plays like he did this year, so that will help make up for some of the lose of production that they might get on offense. Pillar their CF is good and young, I believe 26. His WAR value this past year is on par with Jones (yes he was injured). They will also have (they hope) a full year of Stroman, who looks to be a pretty good starter.

So despite their great success this year, they actually have some things to look forward to getting better next year even having gutted their farm system. I doubt Donaldson puts up quite the numbers he did this year, but you never know as he's quite good (really wish Beane would have put aside his ego and not traded him to the ALEast). Edwin and Bats have been fairly consistent for a number of years and have great walk rates and power, so I don't expect much of a drop from them as their offense doesn't rely much on speed or average. I would think a bit of a loss in production is in order, but I'd posit a full year of Travis might offset that. You'd think Martin's value would decline or maybe start the same given he'll be a 33yr old catcher. A full year of Tulo (even injured at say a total of 120 games, which would be 60 more games than they got this year) will also be an increase in production for them. There's almost no way he won't do better next year for them than he did this year (.237/.317/.380/.697). His career averages are .297/.369/.508/.877.

So, in short I think their offense will be just as potent next year.

Their boogeyman will clearly be their pitching. Price went 9-1 for them. One would think they will not resign him next year. R.A despite not being in Cy Young form helped save their bullpen by eating 214 innings. One would think at 41 he won't pitch that many innings, but he's a knuckleballer so who the hell knows? I think Hawkins, who pitched well for them since the deadline, is retiring and if not will be like 43.

I think they will be competitive at least for 2016, prehaps not quite as much as 2015; however, what they do this off-season concerning their pitching will be quite telling one would think. Here's hoping their budget is close to tapped and they won't be able to sign a top pitcher.

[mdbdotcom]

I would sell my assets before they aged. Especially now that any failures could be blamed on prior regimes. Go young and rely on young pitching.

The Situation is completely different because of regime change. Besides, the Jays went all in for 2015. Not to build for a run. They lost. Live with it.

But we came very close to having regime change. My guess is their situation will be less turbulent.

[Crazysilver03]

Blue Jays aren't in the same situation. They have a bigger market and Rogers has deeper pockets.

Except Rogers has shown no inclination to go deep into their pockets.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

[weams]

But we came very close to having regime change. My guess is their situation will be less turbulent.

And if we had, we would have had an influx of young pitching. The type of pitching that cost Anthopoulis his job when he traded it.

[weams]

Except Rogers has shown no inclination to go deep into their pockets.

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Rogers has a turf war to take care of. And not a cheap owner. An idiot of one.

[wildcard]

Except Rogers has shown no inclination to go deep into their pockets.

Sent from my LG-D850 using Tapatalk

137m in 2014, 132m in 2015

Deeper pockets than the O's even if that don't add payroll. But they might go further.

[DrungoHazewood]

So, in short I think their offense will be just as potent next year.

It's pretty close to a universal truth in baseball to say that any group of players past the age of 27 will decline in the next year. All but a couple of the Blue Jays' position players are past 27. They may not catastrophically decline in 2015, but I'd guess there's about an 80-90% chance they score fewer runs.

[gmelson26]

It's pretty close to a universal truth in baseball to say that any group of players past the age of 27 will decline in the next year. All but a couple of the Blue Jays' position players are past 27. They may not catastrophically decline in 2015, but I'd guess there's about an 80-90% chance they score fewer runs.

Yes, I agree with that. I expect declines from most of those players. I even stated as much. I just think a full year Devon Travis and Tulo (with a slight decline) will offset most of the decline. If I was forcing into a corner, my guess is their offense won't score quite as many runs as this year, but I think it will be close enough to say that I don't think the decline will be very noticeable.

[Going Underground]

It's pretty close to a universal truth in baseball to say that any group of players past the age of 27 will decline in the next year. All but a couple of the Blue Jays' position players are past 27. They may not catastrophically decline in 2015, but I'd guess there's about an 80-90% chance they score fewer runs.

So the Orioles as of now have two position players under 27.So the Orioles might have a decline?

[sportsfan8703]

The Jays still have the same lineup that scored the most runs in baseball by far. At least they have that. We're saying they have no starting pitching. haha. We were 25th in that category last year. Their farm system is still better than ours. They're going to have a patch work rotation next year just like we are.

[DrungoHazewood]

So the Orioles as of now have two position players under 27.So the Orioles might have a decline?

It certainly is a possibility, but at least they have two high-upside regulars under 25.

[El Gordo]

I would sell my assets before they aged. Especially now that any failures could be blamed on prior regimes. Go young and rely on young pitching.

The Situation is completely different because of regime change. Besides, the Jays went all in for 2015. Not to build for a run. They lost. Live with it.

Fan base won't be too happy with that after tasting the Playoffs for the first time in years. It depends on how much money Rogers is willing to spend. God knows they have it. Assets have already aged.