Davis Signs With Baltimore (7/$161M, incl $42M deferred)

[TINSTAAPP]

2. If we really had a shot at Cespedes for 5/$110 mm or less (rumored offer was 5/($90 mm), that would have been a better deal than this.

No, it wouldn't have. Cespedes has a career .319 on-base percentage and his walk rate has declined every year since his rookie season. Last year, his walk rate was 4.9%. For comparison's sake, Jimmy Paredes had a 5.0% BB rate and he swings at everything. Three years ago, Cespedes had a .240 BA and .294 OBP. Two years ago, he had a .260 BA and .301 OBP. The guy's a one-dimensional hacker who's carried completely by his power. We've seen plenty of those types of players play for the Orioles over those years. We don't need another one.

[DrungoHazewood]

Come year six I think we will be hoping he gets up to zero.

Look at someone like Carlos Beltran. That's what's likely, in a general sense. Some good years, some years where he's good and plays 65 games, and some years where he's bad and/or injured. Much of a talented player's decline is that he just can't stay on the field.

[weams]

Part of me says "Yea. I like Chris Davis. He's been a very good Oriole. I'm glad he's pretty much going to finish his career here."

Part of me says "Hmm. They're paying a guy who had three good years in his 20s to have seven in his 30s. That's almost guaranteed to not happen. This contract will almost certainly end up somewhere between not-so-bad and 'Ryan Howard'."

My contract estimator said he was worth $120, so this is about a 30% overpay. And he's a extreme variance guy. You can almost count on 2-3 zeros out of the seven years.

Yep. Our team is better the next few seasons because he stayed.

[weams]

Look at someone like Carlos Beltran. That's what's likely, in a general sense. Some good years, some years where he's good and plays 65 games, and some years where he's bad and/or injured. Much of a talented player's decline is that he just can't stay on the field.

Absolutely and he is 29. Is not like he is 26.

[DrungoHazewood]

No, it wouldn't have. Cespedes has a career .319 on-base percentage and his walk rate has declined every year since his rookie season. Last year, his walk rate was 4.9%. For comparison's sake, Jimmy Paredes had a 5.0% BB rate and he swings at everything. Three years ago, Cespedes had a .240 BA and .294 OBP. Two years ago, he had a .260 BA and .301 OBP. The guy's a one-dimensional hacker who's carried completely by his power. We've seen plenty of those types of players play for the Orioles over those years. We don't need another one.

Sure it would have been, discounting any off-field or clubhouse issues. Cespedes has a higher established performance level, is about the same age, and was/is $50M cheaper. Of course it was a better deal, a better risk.

[weams]

And less flexibility going forward.

Who says that we would ever have had a payroll over 119 otherwise?

[Frobby]

Well there is one category the O's will run away with next year, dollars spent per win

What are we around 130 million to win 75 games

we can root for Davis to get his third suspension and I think the O's get to not pay him for those games, that would be the only upside I see possible in this deal

I have no interest in watching the O's with Davis and his 250 strikeouts and .250 average ever again.

I wonder if Boras would have ever found another suitor at anywhere near this price.

So, you'll be leaving us now? That's a shame.

I think we are better than a 75 win team. At present, I'd say we are about the same as last year -- slightly better hitting, loss of Chen hurts but partially compensated by likely partial bounce-backs from Gausman, Tillman and Gonzalez, and bullpen probably a bit worse not due to talent but just hard to match last year's great performance. I'm one of those people who believes that a team can win 8 or so games more or less than their actual talent level depending on who's healthy and who has a good year and the other "little things." So, I think we have a chance to contend with this team, but it's not certain that we will. I'd feel much better with another solid starting pitcher in the fold.

[Can_of_corn]

Sure it would have been, discounting any off-field or clubhouse issues. Cespedes has a higher established performance level, is about the same age, and was/is $50M cheaper. Of course it was a better deal, a better risk.

Also CO was a greater need then 1B.

[Going Underground]

I assume they actually offered it. And that Cespedes still wants his 132.

Yup,plus an opt-out.Roc Nation is also supposedly tough to deal with. But that is probably most agents or agencies. They did do a CC And Cano contracts.

[Can_of_corn]

Who says that we would ever have had a payroll over 119 otherwise?

Unlike some folks I don't view team success by how high the payroll is.

[VeveJones007]

I was not told any specifics. And I don't want to discuss more than I posted.

It's obvious that they need a SP or two. For those hoping, forget Yoenis.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TINSTAAPP]

What if Manny demands an opt-out?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What's wrong with giving him an opt-out if he wants one? The Orioles should do whatever it takes to get Machado to stay in Baltimore as long as possible. Worst case scenario is he stays around for two or three more years. It's better than letting him leave after 2018.

[Rick_Schu]

SOMETHING MAGIC HAPPENS!!!!!! Welcome back Chris!! This is awesome and says a lot of great things about my O's. So happy to have the HR KING back in Orange! He's a big strong man, he's gonna be able to hit the ball out when he's 45. Let's get ready to crank it up a few levels in Birdland and get out there and support the team. We WILL win a world series, and CRUSH D will be a big part of it.

[crawjo]

Well, my thought is that if you overpay for somebody, it is better to do it for a guy who has already been on the team. This is an overpay, but I think most Orioles fans will be happy that Davis is coming back. I also don't think we were ever going to offer enough to land Cespedes or Upton. It seems to me though that we need one more hitter and we need a starting pitcher. I would advocate signing someone like Fister or Latos, and staying away from Gallardo. I also think we need another bat, preferably someone who can play good defense. I would go after Will Venable.

[mrpennybags]

So in a season where the bats were mostly either waiting discontentedly or signing for less than expected we manage to overpay substantially. I can't remember an Orioles deal I felt worse about.