Why we may be undervaluing Dan Duquettes long term strategy

[SteveO]

The burning long term question of the Orioles future revolves around Manny Machado. He is the one asset we have that we absolutely have to either retain or maximize his value if we are going to not be able to retain him. I think DD has positioned himself nicely in the long term to deal with this issue and here is why.

I imagine that Manny and AJ view this signing very positively. Certainly had they signed say Upton or Cespedes, those guys would have been viewed far more favorably than Snider replacing Nick Markakis. Personally I think the end game here is to provide Manny with some sense that this organization is willing to spend resources to win if he remains here. He will not simply be the face of franchise that is floundering but rather the driving force of a competitive team. That I imagine is important to Manny. I am not naive, I know money rules the day but if I am Manny, I would be willing after last year to gamble a little on myself if I were not feeling to sure about the direction of the franchise.

Lets say though Manny wont sign, he is intent on hitting the market and becoming uber uber rich. With CD on board, the potential exists that if you get the right prospects back, bring in a guy or two, your team can still have some relevance while the guys we draft this year work their way up the minors.

What I like about the long term approach is that we seem to be putting in place a lot of reasons for Manny to really think hard about staying. CD, AJ, Schoop, a bevy of draft picks and if we get perhaps Harvey or Bundy can show they are getting back on track that might help also. KG blowing up also would help. Point is that DD is doing this right from a long term perspective in my opinion. Manny is not staying in Baltimore hoping that a bevy of picks develop, add those picks in additon to an already competitive team and a lineup that provides him opportunities to produce big, it becomes a more attractive proposition.

The picture to me is becoming a little clearer as to what the goal is and I am impressed. I freely admit I could be wrong, I am sure a lot of poster will tear me apart here but I have to believe there is a long term strategy, Buck and DD are little to smart not to have one. This is just my take on it. Feel free to object.

[jtschrei]

The O's are playing with fire in my opinion. Manny should have been the #1 priority this offseason. Mike Trout was drafted in 2009 and signed his 6 year extension in 2014.

Manny was drafted in 2010. If we comparing Manny to Trout, we should have extended him last year. And certainly this year.

[paulcoates]

The young players on this team are going to be making a lot of money very quickly. Duquette's main strategy should be fixing the minor league system. Some of our young major leaguers are going to leave. It's that simple. The Orioles need to bring up at least 3 everyday players through the system in the next 2 or 3 years. And that doesn't even talk about starters. They better hope that Gausman, Bundy and Harvey stick because this patchwork of major league starters is not going to hold together for very long.

[wildcard]

I think Dan does what he can to direct the long term strategy but he does not control it. If Davis had got a bid of 200m on the FA market the O's would not have matched it. In some ways the market determines the strategy.

Also once he gens up Peter is a certain direction Dan can't always know where that may go. Dan may have endorsed the 7/154 offer to Davis by making a case to Peter. But I doubt Dan could control whether the 161m offer was made. That was probably Peter. Dan probably had input but he can't always control Peter IMO.

I don't think the signing of Davis helps the O's extend Manny. Not that I can see anyway.

[Dipper9]

Since we're on the topic of Duke, I'm curious how others feel about him right now? In 2014 he was executive of the year. Last year many complained about the lack of activity from Duke. This year he made a couple good early moves with Trumbo and Kim, but the O'Day resigning and Wieters accepting the QO have to be considered Peter's work on the first, and luck/bad luck on the second. The Davis deal I think we're all pretty positive was Uncle Peter's work. So what exactly has Duke been doing for three months? While Peter negotiated with Boras over Davis, why wasn't Duke working on starting pitching? Or outfield depth? Or outfield starters for that matter? Don't get me wrong, I like the moves made so far and the direction we're heading in, but I give Peter Angelos opening the checkbook more credit for what has occured so far. I'm ready for Duke to start showing the magic that made 2014 so special!

[Slappy]

Since we're on the topic of Duke, I'm curious how others feel about him right now? In 2014 he was executive of the year. Last year many complained about the lack of activity from Duke. This year he made a couple good early moves with Trumbo and Kim, but the O'Day resigning and Wieters accepting the QO have to be considered Peter's work on the first, and luck/bad luck on the second. The Davis deal I think we're all pretty positive was Uncle Peter's work. So what exactly has Duke been doing for three months? While Peter negotiated with Boras over Davis, why wasn't Duke working on starting pitching? Or outfield depth? Or outfield starters for that matter? Don't get me wrong, I like the moves made so far and the direction we're heading in, but I give Peter Angelos opening the checkbook more credit for what has occured so far. I'm ready for Duke to start showing the magic that made 2014 so special!

I feel like he has sprinted very hard to stand in place.

The 2016 team is shaping up to be a carbon copy of the 2015 team, with the same strengths (power, bullpen, IF defense) and the same weaknesses (starting pitching, OBP, OF defense). All the moves, trades, FA signings haven't addressed our issues, but instead shored up our strengths.

The one thing I'd really like to see is something to be done in the rotation. I don't know if that is a trade or FA signing, but if we can add a quality starter I'd feel better about our chances of getting to 85+ wins where we would be in the playoff picture at least. Still, there is a full month until Spring Training starts and 2.5 months until opening day so there is still PLENTY of time to get something done here.

[NCRaven]

Dipper9 - "...but the O'Day resigning and Wieters accepting the QO have to be considered Peter's work on the first, and luck/bad luck on the second."

I don't think that the O'Day signing had anything to do with Peter Angelos whatsoever. He's a setup reliever. Owner's don't order their GM's to give big money to relievers who are not closers.

This move had Buck written all over it. O'Day is an expensive security blanket. I think he'll do an excellent job. Whether that is worth the money he's being paid, well I doubt it. But, if you're going to overpay, at least do it for a player that's likely to do his job well and make the manager's job immensely easier.

[weams]

The burning long term question of the Orioles future revolves around Manny Machado. He is the one asset we have that we absolutely have to either retain or maximize his value if we are going to not be able to retain him. I think DD has positioned himself nicely in the long term to deal with this issue and here is why.

I imagine that Manny and AJ view this signing very positively. Certainly had they signed say Upton or Cespedes, those guys would have been viewed far more favorably than Snider replacing Nick Markakis. Personally I think the end game here is to provide Manny with some sense that this organization is willing to spend resources to win if he remains here. He will not simply be the face of franchise that is floundering but rather the driving force of a competitive team. That I imagine is important to Manny. I am not naive, I know money rules the day but if I am Manny, I would be willing after last year to gamble a little on myself if I were not feeling to sure about the direction of the franchise.

Lets say though Manny wont sign, he is intent on hitting the market and becoming uber uber rich. With CD on board, the potential exists that if you get the right prospects back, bring in a guy or two, your team can still have some relevance while the guys we draft this year work their way up the minors.

What I like about the long term approach is that we seem to be putting in place a lot of reasons for Manny to really think hard about staying. CD, AJ, Schoop, a bevy of draft picks and if we get perhaps Harvey or Bundy can show they are getting back on track that might help also. KG blowing up also would help. Point is that DD is doing this right from a long term perspective in my opinion. Manny is not staying in Baltimore hoping that a bevy of picks develop, add those picks in additon to an already competitive team and a lineup that provides him opportunities to produce big, it becomes a more attractive proposition.

The picture to me is becoming a little clearer as to what the goal is and I am impressed. I freely admit I could be wrong, I am sure a lot of poster will tear me apart here but I have to believe there is a long term strategy, Buck and DD are little to smart not to have one. This is just my take on it. Feel free to object.

Interesting take. I will have to digest it. Thanks.

[weams]

The O's are playing with fire in my opinion. Manny should have been the #1 priority this offseason. Mike Trout was drafted in 2009 and signed his 6 year extension in 2014.

Manny was drafted in 2010. If we comparing Manny to Trout, we should have extended him last year. And certainly this year.

What if Baltimore is different from living and playing in LA? Also, Trout was never hurt yet.

[Frobby]

What if Baltimore is different from living and playing in LA? Also, Trout was never hurt yet.

I wish we had signed Manny two years ago, but it is not too late to get something done, it merely will cost more now than it would have cost then. I do think that Manny will probably be happy that the O's have held on to some key pieces this offseason and that may help us at the margins in our discussions with him.

[Frobby]

The young players on this team are going to be making a lot of money very quickly. Duquette's main strategy should be fixing the minor league system. Some of our young major leaguers are going to leave. It's that simple. The Orioles need to bring up at least 3 everyday players through the system in the next 2 or 3 years. And that doesn't even talk about starters. They better hope that Gausman, Bundy and Harvey stick because this patchwork of major league starters is not going to hold together for very long.

I agree with this 100%. You can't keep everybody, and the key is to have a regular flow of talent up to the big club. I think Duquette has marginally upgraded both the drafting and development side, but his tendency to trade guys away for mostly mediocre returns has negated any advantage we might have gained.

[weams]

I wish we had signed Manny two years ago, but it is not too late to get something done, it merely will cost more now than it would have cost then. I do think that Manny will probably be happy that the O's have held on to some key pieces this offseason and that may help us at the margins in our discussions with him.

We evidently came darned close. I wonder what happened in baseball that made him pull back that hour?

[weams]

I agree with this 100%. You can't keep everybody, and the key is to have a regular flow of talent up to the big club. I think Duquette has marginally upgraded both the drafting and development side, but his tendency to trade guys away for mostly mediocre returns has negated any advantage we might have gained.

That foolish MLB competition again...

I agree. His choices were poor.

[TheDirtyBird]

All I have to say is if manny is allowed to leave Baltimore via trade or free agency, I'm going to be heartbroken

[Frobby]

All I have to say is if manny is allowed to leave Baltimore via trade or free agency, I'm going to be heartbroken

I'm warming to the possibility that, if we can't sign him, we can get a truckload of talent in exchange. I'll worry about that one next offseason.