Steve Phillips On Chris Davis Negotiations: 'The Process Was Painfully Ugly'

[25 Nuggets]

I would agree here. He put up 1.6 WAR last year, it might be a slight overpay or slight bargain but even if he produces at the levels he has (2014 aside) he is not a vast overpay. I tend to think that OPACY could also boost his production. Personally I like the move to bring him in as a DH....not so much if ends up in the field much.

Trumbo is a big upgrade over Jimmy Paredes at DH. I'm expecting him to hit 25 HRs and won't be surprised with 30. He'll hit behind Davis and will have every chance at 100 RBI too.

I'm curious to see if Paredes makes the team. If he does, he'll DH some vs RHP and supplement Trumbo but it'll take some away from his counting numbers.

[SteveO]

Trumbo is a big upgrade over Jimmy Paredes at DH. I'm expecting him to hit 25 HRs and won't be surprised with 30. He'll hit behind Davis and will have every chance at 100 RBI too.

I'm curious to see if Paredes makes the team. If he does, he'll DH some vs RHP and supplement Trumbo but it'll take some away from his counting numbers.

Think if Paredes makes the team then we will be seeing more of Trumbo in the field than I would like.

Personally I kinda doubt he makes the team. I think Buck will value the flexibility the ability to play the field more than what Paredes brings offensively.

[Hank Scorpio]

considering the source, i'm not exactly trusting his judgement on what's ugly.

there, i said it.

heyyyyyyyooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[BohKnowsBmore]

If the market is crazy, and you pay crazy, than you are not overspending.

I think there are two different forms of overspend that we need to take into consideration. It may not be overspending relative to the market equilibrium price, however, every team has its own personal demand curve that, in aggregate, form the market demand curve. If the price is above what the Orioles believe it is worth, and think they can better maximize wins/$ by going another route, it makes sense.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Think if Paredes makes the team then we will be seeing more of Trumbo in the field than I would like.

Personally I kinda doubt he makes the team. I think Buck will value the flexibility the ability to play the field more than what Paredes brings offensively.

I'm guessing they don't think Paredes will make the final 25, depending on what moves are yet to be made, however, they want to optimize his time through waivers to minimize the chance other teams take him. If we don't acquire another LH bat, though, I think his chance of being on the OD roster rises. Does D. Alvarez still have options?

[wildcard]

Trumbo is not overpaid as a DH.

Cruz was about the same compensation coming off his PED suspension. Buck playing him in the field never helped the team. It was simply to allow him to get his value up for his next contract. A professional courtesy. Trumbo won't be traded.

Several things here I can't agree with.

1) Trumbo does not hit as well as Cruz and is not worth as much.

2) Cruz was being paid 1.1m dollars less than Trumbo is getting this year.

3) The current market for DHs is lower. That sets Trumbo's market as a DH. Jaso 4m, Carter 4m, Pedro Alvarez still on the market is probably not going to get much more than 4m. Trumbo's value as a DH is about that value, but he is being paid like a 1B at 9.1m. So maybe he is worth that much to some team as a 1B. But not the O's.

I don't know what the O's will do but if they can do a salary dump on Trumbo and sign Alvarez for 4m they should do it and put the rest of the money toward a starter.

[AdamK]

IF THIS, THEN THAT

Now that we see what we have in the field and at the plate, I think we give serious consideration to dealing Britton. Love having such a steady guy coming in for saves, but that is a long way away from the starter leaving the mound to the point when he can come in. I love that Buck started giving him 1+ innings last year, but it would seem like this pitching staff might need him to finish the 5th inning and get us thru the 7th.

Teams may overpay for him in the way that adds young talent a bit more advanced than the picks we aren't making now that Davis and Wieters erased those comp picks.

[weams]

Several things here I can't agree with.

1) Trumbo does not hit as well as Cruz and is not worth as much.

2) Cruz was being paid 1.1m dollars less than Trumbo is getting this year.

3) The current market for DHs is lower. That sets Trumbo's market as a DH. Jaso 4m, Carter 4m, Pedro Alvarez still on the market is probably not going to get much more than 4m. Trumbo's value as a DH is about that value, but he is being paid like a 1B at 9.1m. So maybe he is worth that much to some team as a 1B. But not the O's.

I don't know what the O's will do but if they can do a salary dump on Trumbo and sign Alvarez for 4m they should do it and put the rest of the money toward a starter.

1. Pre 2014? Yes he do.

2. Salary inflation. Across the board.

3. Since when? Just because the teams that need one have one?

Also, when did you hear that Alvarez and Boras came off their three year 25+ million requirement that has him still on the market?

[Redskins Rick]

Several things here I can't agree with.

1) Trumbo does not hit as well as Cruz and is not worth as much.

2) Cruz was being paid 1.1m dollars less than Trumbo is getting this year.

3) The current market for DHs is lower. That sets Trumbo's market as a DH. Jaso 4m, Carter 4m, Pedro Alvarez still on the market is probably not going to get much more than 4m. Trumbo's value as a DH is about that value, but he is being paid like a 1B at 9.1m. So maybe he is worth that much to some team as a 1B. But not the O's.

I don't know what the O's will do but if they can do a salary dump on Trumbo and sign Alvarez for 4m they should do it and put the rest of the money toward a starter.

What you propose is not going to happen.

Trumbo is here and a good bat, and his production will be used in the lineup.

[Frobby]

Several things here I can't agree with.

1) Trumbo does not hit as well as Cruz and is not worth as much.

2) Cruz was being paid 1.1m dollars less than Trumbo is getting this year.

3) The current market for DHs is lower. That sets Trumbo's market as a DH. Jaso 4m, Carter 4m, Pedro Alvarez still on the market is probably not going to get much more than 4m. Trumbo's value as a DH is about that value, but he is being paid like a 1B at 9.1m. So maybe he is worth that much to some team as a 1B. But not the O's.

I don't know what the O's will do but if they can do a salary dump on Trumbo and sign Alvarez for 4m they should do it and put the rest of the money toward a starter.

Trumbo has a better track record than the three players you mention. However, if you think he is overpaid, then why do you think we can trade him and get something of significant value in return?

Regarding the difference between 1B and DH: BB-ref breaks WAR down into various components, including Rpos, which is basically credit or demerit you receive according to what position you play. A full time 1B will be demerited about -9 runs per 150 games, whereas a full time DH will be demerited about -15 runs. So, being a DH instead of a 1B is about 6 runs (.6 wins) extra penalty. It is not unreasonable to think that a guy who was worth $9 mm as an average-fielding 1B is worth about $4 mm as a DH. But in Trumbo's case, I think he would worth more than $9 mm as a full time 1B and therefore is worth more than $4 mm as a full time DH. If he posts a 110 OPS+ or better, he should justify his salary.

[jjnono]

I really don't understand this point of view... Offseason is a dynamic environment. You can't just go to the pitcher store and order a TOR at menu prices.

Good point, and I get that. And I'm intrigued by the posters who have indicated that based on the cost of a TOR these days (which DD also says has taken him by surprise), the Os/DD/PA may have changed tack and decided their money is more effectively used to bash our way to success, rather than upgrade the pitching (Q: Is the offense as currently constructed capable of ADDING 9+ wins to last year (assuming the pitching performs exactly as it did last season)?). The cynic's take is that Angelos still controls the purse strings, and has decided that Davis is a more lucrative long-term advertising chip than any pitcher might be (which also effectively means that you can't trust a single thing DD says regarding contracts payroll, player acquisition, etc.). But no matter your opinion, the fact remains that last year's starting pitching was a big reason for our decidedly mediocre record. We have done NOTHING to improve it, even after DD indicated at the outset of this off season that it was one of his top priorities.

Maybe the FO is just mad at MW for taking the QO and waiting to ditch his salary next season/trade deadline for a pitcher...

[weams]

The cynic's take is that Angelos still controls the purse strings, and has decided that Davis is a more lucrative long-term advertising chip than any pitcher might be (which also effectively means that you can't trust a single thing DD says regarding contracts payroll, player acquisition, etc.).

Maybe the FO is just mad at MW for taking the QO and waiting to ditch his salary next season/trade deadline for a pitcher...

What? Of course the Angleos family gets to decide the budget. They own the team. As to allocation of resources other than Davis, I've seen no indication that they are involved. The payroll is now at it's highest point after a very trying year financially for the club.

I think most folks would have preferred a top pitcher to Davis. They cost 235 million and our owner was not paying for one.

[hoosiers]

For me, if we are not willing to pay free agent prices for good pitchers, then we have traded away too much pitching talent over the last several years. I'd be pretty happy with our staff right now if we had Rodriguez and Davis in the fold, to say nothing of the others we've traded away.

The above says a lot. If we can't put out the big $ for pitchers, then we should acquire rentals by trade top 100 pitching prospects (or this being a clear admission that we overpaid in prospects).

BTW, pitchers have been paid or overpaid for years. This is hardly a new market revelation. It's why I have a preference to draft and develop pitchers with top draft picks and other amateur investments. It's why AM always said he wanted to "grow the arms and buy the bats."

[jjnono]

What? Of course the Angleos family gets to decide the budget. They own the team. As to allocation of resources other than Davis, I've seen no indication that they are involved. The payroll is now at it's highest point after a very trying year financially for the club.

I think most folks would have preferred a top pitcher to Davis. They cost 235 million and our owner was not paying for one.

My cynical point was merely that Angelos ponied up the money for Davis because he's a bankable fan commodity - he fills seats and can be marketed in various ways to the benefit of the organization. The signing had less to do with fielding a WS team and more to do with a financial security built-in to the money paid for Davis.... He agreed to pay $161MM because he feels he will get a good amount of it back - regardless of the Orioles success on the field. That is the cynic's view, which I sort of share.

An yes, Angelos is the owner and can do whatever he wants with his money. My allusion to purse strings was only meant to indicate that DD doesn't pull the trigger on deals of a certain size, Angelos does. Always has. That's probably not so unusual.

[Tony-OH]

Beloved in New York.

Must suck to make a mistake and have it pulled back up everytime someone wants to make a point against you.