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Fangraphs: Baltimore's Dexter Fowler Opportunity


CaptainRedbeard

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A lot of very on-point commentary in here, that has already been mentioned in the Gallardo thread, but there's enough that I figured it deserves it own place.

Their next pick is currently slotted at #29, the compensation pick they?d get for losing Chen. That?s still a valuable selection, but because draft picks lose value pretty quickly as you get further from the top tier, that pick is probably worth something closer to $10 million, and some teams put estimates on those compensation picks more in the $5 million to $8 million range. In other words, signing Gallardo means that the tax to sign Fowler is now half as large as it would have been otherwise, and he?d cost something more like 2/$30M in total value if he signed with the Orioles after they signed Gallardo.

With Gallardo and Fowler, you could reasonably look at the Orioles as an 81-82 win team heading into the season, and from there, it?s not a huge stretch to find a few extra wins, allowing the team to sneak into contention. And at a 2/$20M signing price, the floor is actually pretty high as well; Fowler would almost certainly have positive trade value this summer if things go poorly, and the team could likely recoup prospects in trade that could nearly match (or potentially exceed) the value of the 29th pick.

I agree with pretty much everything Cameron's said. I don't like Gallardo at 3/40, but that becomes tolerable if it also means Fowler at 2/20. And I even think there would be some possibility to get Fowler at 3/30 or something along those lines, which may be an even better deal.

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Signing Gallardo in isolation doesn?t strike me as a great deal, as he?s probably not good enough to justify giving up the 14th pick by himself. But if the Orioles can turn this into a package deal, turning the 14th and 29th picks into Gallardo and Fowler, then they might be able to defray some of the cost of the first signing

This almost sounds like a plan. If DD really gets both these guys at a big time discount, then its worth losing the picks.

The article also points out how these guys could be flipped for prospects more valuable then the picks. Assuming the are playing well and the team is not, its possible, but far from a sure thing.

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With Gallardo and Fowler, you could reasonably look at the Orioles as an 81-82 win team heading into the season, and from there, it's not a huge stretch to find a few extra wins, allowing the team to sneak into contention.

If I thought adding Gallardo and Fowler only made us an 81-82 win "true talent" team, I'd be adamantly opposed to acquiring them. But I think with those two we'd be more like an 85ish "true talen" team, and that makes our playoff odds significantly better. I still have mixed feelings about this idea, but I'd feel a lot more strongly against it if I thought our playoff chances were still weak even with these moves.

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A lot of very on-point commentary in here, that has already been mentioned in the Gallardo thread, but there's enough that I figured it deserves it own place.

I agree with pretty much everything Cameron's said. I don't like Gallardo at 3/40, but that becomes tolerable if it also means Fowler at 2/20. And I even think there would be some possibility to get Fowler at 3/30 or something along those lines, which may be an even better deal.

You'd still be paying a $30M premium for $60M in players.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Was also told this earlier today by one source. Though not everyone in warehouse in agreement <a href="https://t.co/2veZQnXfPh">https://t.co/2veZQnXfPh</a></p>— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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If nothing else adding both Gallardo and Fowler would add the excitement factor of having new faces on the team, rather than just the returning FAs who we already know.

(Yes I know that this is not a valid strategy consideration when making roster moves but from a fan's perspective it's fun.)

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A lot of very on-point commentary in here, that has already been mentioned in the Gallardo thread, but there's enough that I figured it deserves it own place.

I agree with pretty much everything Cameron's said. I don't like Gallardo at 3/40, but that becomes tolerable if it also means Fowler at 2/20. And I even think there would be some possibility to get Fowler at 3/30 or something along those lines, which may be an even better deal.

We were an 81 win team last year. I have a hard time believing you only become a 81-82 win team in signing them both.

You would have a Top-5 line up, a Top-5 defense, and a Top-5 Pen.

So you have a mediocre to solid staff and an 81-82 team? I don't see it.

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All top Free agents have a premium. That's why they are poor deals.

Fowler and Gallardo aren't top free agents, they're mid-tier. And they come with not only the paying-for-peak-but-getting-decline premium, but also first-round draft pick $10s of millions premium on top. $100M in cost for maybe four wins a year in year one, declining from there. If Gallardo doesn't bomb out with a sub-5 strikeout rate.

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If nothing else adding both Gallardo and Fowler would add the excitement factor of having new faces on the team, rather than just the returning FAs who we already know.

(Yes I know that this is not a valid strategy consideration when making roster moves but from a fan's perspective it's fun.)

Joey Rickard and Hyun-Soo Kim are new faces and don't cost $100M worth of cash and draft picks.

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Fowler and Gallardo aren't top free agents, they're mid-tier. And they come with not only the paying-for-peak-but-getting-decline premium, but also first-round draft pick $10s of millions premium on top. $100M in cost for maybe four wins a year in year one, declining from there. If Gallardo doesn't bomb out with a sub-5 strikeout rate.

Why are we thinking that Fowler would decline after year one?

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Fowler and Gallardo aren't top free agents, they're mid-tier. And they come with not only the paying-for-peak-but-getting-decline premium, but also first-round draft pick $10s of millions premium on top. $100M in cost for maybe four wins a year in year one, declining from there. If Gallardo doesn't bomb out with a sub-5 strikeout rate.

And Four wins could be the difference between a World Series team and missing the playoffs.

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2014 Deja Vu.

I didn't want to give up the draft pick for Ubaldo and hated the signing.... but I loved that it then freed up the opportunity to sign Cruz to a pillow contract.

Now in 2016, I hate the idea of signing Gallardo... but I'm excited that it would then free up the opportunity to get Fowler.

At least DD knows if you're going to go in, you have to go all in with these QO draft picks.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> also like free agent Pedro Alvarez and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Reds?src=hash">#Reds</a>’ Bruce in addition to Fowler, per sources. Might not have prospects to land Bruce.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

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