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Fangraphs: Baltimore's Dexter Fowler Opportunity


CaptainRedbeard

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I was for the Gallardo Fowler deal but Can and others have made good points. So

now I don't know what to think.

If it happens, just root for them to do well and root for our team to make some more playoff appearances. That's all we can do.

Personally I'm much higher on Fowler than Gallardo. I'd just have gone a different direction with what's available.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Was also told this earlier today by one source. Though not everyone in warehouse in agreement <a href="https://t.co/2veZQnXfPh">https://t.co/2veZQnXfPh</a></p>? Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="
">February 10, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's funny. Roch just told people on his blog two days ago Orioles arent going to give up the pick for Gallardo. Orioles met with his agents this morning and I was told that meeting was scheduled for at least a week now. Hs agents flew into Baltimore.

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That's funny. Roch just told people on his blog two days ago Orioles arent going to give up the pick for Gallardo. Orioles met with his agents this morning and I was told that meeting was scheduled for at least a week now. Hs agents flew into Baltimore.

Roch isn't a journalist, he works for the team.

And you can tell him I said so.

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And Four wins could be the difference between a World Series team and missing the playoffs.

The Os are not the only team that "four wins could be a difference", but we are the only ones giving up multiple picks. I think that is telling. We have no farm system to replace open rotation sports because the best candidates have been traded away. We are about to ramp up to a ridiculous payroll, pass along $10Ms in deferred $ to the next GM and gut the farm system in order to have a Hail Mary's chance at the post-season.

The Os do not operate in a vacuum. DD could have taken over any number of teams and given up (with YoGa and Fowler) six high draft picks, traded the top of the farm system and other promising players and international slots - and given that team a chance at the playoffs. But most GMs don't operate that way. They let their prospects develop, let seasons develop, and then act in at least a semi-responsible manner. This is the most irresponsible use of assets since Syd Thrift. Unless there is a way to deal many of these guys mid-season for quality prospects, we are guaranteed at least three to five awful, awful years in the not so distant future.

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If I thought adding Gallardo and Fowler only made us an 81-82 win "true talent" team, I'd be adamantly opposed to acquiring them. But I think with those two we'd be more like an 85ish "true talen" team, and that makes our playoff odds significantly better. I still have mixed feelings about this idea, but I'd feel a lot more strongly against it if I thought our playoff chances were still weak even with these moves.

I agree with you on this, I think the fangraphs projections on the Orioles are light for a number of players, namely:

Davis: 3.5 WAR

Jones: 3.0 WAR

Schoop: 1.3 WAR

Givens: 0.2 WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

I'd expect 2-3 more wins out of that group than they're currently projected, whereas the only projection I think is high is Kim (1.6 WAR). So I'm with you, I'd say the Orioles are currently a 81-82 win team and adding Gallardo and Fowler puts them at 85-86.

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I agree with you on this, I think the fangraphs projections on the Orioles are light for a number of players, namely:

Davis: 3.5 WAR

Jones: 3.0 WAR

Schoop: 1.3 WAR

Givens: 0.2 WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

I'd expect 2-3 more wins out of that group than they're currently projected, whereas the only projection I think is high is Kim (1.6 WAR). So I'm with you, I'd say the Orioles are currently a 81-82 win team and adding Gallardo and Fowler puts them at 85-86.

How many folks think 85-86 wins gets the O's into the playoffs?

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How many folks think 85-86 wins gets the O's into the playoffs?

The Yankees and Astros won 87 and 86 games last year, respectively. A projected 85-86 win team is certainly a strong wildcard contender, right in the mix with alot of other teams. Certainly no playoff lock, but not a bad place to be.

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If it happens, just root for them to do well and root for our team to make some more playoff appearances. That's all we can do.

Personally I'm much higher on Fowler than Gallardo. I'd just have gone a different direction with what's available.

Exactly. I wouldn't have made the decisions Duquette made. I think there's significant risk and murky upside. But he's plausibly got a 80-something win team for a few years, so... well... go O's. Sometimes 85-win teams win 97. Or less than 85, but yea, well, let's hope not.

Somebody will fix 2017 or 2018 when we get there. Just gotta hope 2016 doesn't need major patching.

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