The Case for P. Alvarez

[CaptainRedbeard]

The consensus opinion appears to be that the Orioles will be done adding hitters once they land one of Fowler, Bruce, or P. Alvarez. I'm not saying it's realistic, and who knows what our payroll restrictions are at this point, but I think there's a compelling case to add P. Alvarez even if we do land Fowler.

Upsides

1. The Orioles still have only Davis and Kim as LH hitters on their ML roster who project to be better vs. RHP than LHP. Wieters and Fowler are better vs. LHP. (Ignoring Flaherty for these purposes). Alvarez crushes RHP, with a career wRC+ of 118.

2. We are assuming that Kim can step in and play LF at the major league level. Our backup plan is a revolving door made up of the likes of Reimold, Rickard, Navarro, Urrutia, Hoes, and D. Alvarez. Navarro and Urrutia are the only LH hitters and they look to be replacement level, at best, in the strong side of a platoon. The RH hitters would all be over-exposed as everyday players.

3. Davis and Trumbo both have experience in the OF. In effect, Alvarez provides the backup for all 3 OF positions (Fowler can cover CF), 1B, and DH. 7 players for 5 positions, with one of them being a RH platoon partner for Kim/Alvarez getting very few ABs, means there are still plenty of ABs to go around. An injury to any of the 4 every day players, or Kim, means Alvarez gets full playing time vs RHP. He'd probably get 400 AB's over the course of the season.

4. Alvarez has almost no market, and can likely be had for $3-4MM, and at most $5MM. Carter got a $2.5MM deal, so Alvarez is going to want to eclipse that, but outside of that, he has no bargaining power, with an extraordinarily weak market:

-No NL team will want him / can offer him as much playing time unless they want to make their incumbent 1B part of platoon or play them in the OF part time. Alvarez is also a horrible 1B defensively. Only the Padres and Rockies even look like conceivable fits to me, with no rumored interest.

-The AL teams have very few incumbent DH who can play elsewhere, again with no rumored interest. Only the Indians look like they could use him in a platoon with their 1B, Napoli, who they gave a large $7MM contract this offseason.

Downsides

1. We can't keep both Rickard and Reimold on the 25-man roster if everybody is healthy. I think this downside is mitigated by many factors, namely:

-We only need one RH bench OF to platoon with Kim/Alvarez. The other won't be getting playing time anyway.

-We can likely keep Reimold by having no team want to claim him due to his contract, and sending him to the minors. Alternatively, we can cut him before the season for a small loss.

-There's a good chance that one projected player for the 25-man roster won't be healthy to start the season anyway, and it won't be an issue until further down the road.

-Even if we lose one of Rickard or Reimold, we have Hoes and D. Alvarez in the minors as RH corner OF. Plenty of depth as RH platoon OF, and only one projected platoon they need to cover.

2. One of Davis/Trumbo has to play in the OF much of the time in order to start Alvarez. This is an unsavory reality, and the only real downside IMO, with a few smaller mitigating factors:

-Kim may not be a better OF than Davis/Trumbo anyway.

-Davis/Trumbo might get hurt.

-Fowler may not have the arm for RF, in which case playing him in LF and Davis/Trumbo in RF (who have good/decent arms) lessens the blow of having them out there.

-Even if everybody is healthy and playing well, Alvarez can carve out some playing time by pinch hitting and starting against tough RHP instead of Trumbo.

Summary

Alvarez could be a huge upgrade to the bench, at a bargain price. He profiles very well offensively for OPACY and provides depth at an area in which we have very little as a LH hitter. He'd play the role that many currently envision for Jimmy Paredes except that he's, you know, good (and Paredes is likely a 40 man casualty anyway). The downside of Davis/Trumbo seeing more OF time is worth the upside of having him. If there's a few more bills burning a hole in PA's pocket even after we add Gallardo and Fowler, Alvarez would still be a quality addition IMO.

[oriolediehard]

IMOP the O's put Chris Davis in RF, Trumbo at 1B and Pedro Alverez as DH, this will be the

best offense and best defense without losing power offense. I don't know where Dexter Fowler

will play, unless Fowler plays instead of Kim, I'm not sure?

[Rene88]

IMOP the O's put Chris Davis in RF, Trumbo at 1B and Pedro Alverez as DH, this will be the

best offense and best defense without losing power offense. I don't know where Dexter Fowler

will play, unless Fowler plays instead of Kim, I'm not sure?

This is a fun topic, but no way it happens, or should it. Fowler would be a great addition to this club. Get it done.

[DrungoHazewood]

There's no way you acquire Trumbo, resign Davis, and then go out and acquire another pure DH. As much as I dislike the whole pick sacrificing scheme Fowler is a far better fit than Alvarez. Defense and flexibility would take a huge hit. It would be like the year the Tigers had so many DHs lying around 32-year-old Mickey Tettleton played 56 games in the outfield after having played 20 innings there the rest of his career combined.

[CaptainRedbeard]

This is a fun topic, but no way it happens, or should it. Fowler would be a great addition to this club. Get it done.

Yeah Fowler is definitely the far superior option if you're only choosing one. This would be for Alvarez as a bench player / depth piece. He'd be in direct competition with Kim for playing time, and some at the expense of Trumbo, if everybody is healthy.

[CaptainRedbeard]

There's no way you acquire Trumbo, resign Davis, and then go out and acquire another pure DH. As much as I dislike the whole pick sacrificing scheme Fowler is a far better fit than Alvarez. Defense and flexibility would take a huge hit. It would be like the year the Tigers had so many DHs lying around 32-year-old Mickey Tettleton played 56 games in the outfield after having played 20 innings there the rest of his career combined.

It's in the title! I'm advocating Alvarez even with Fowler. He's an upgrade over Reimold/Rickard/Paredes. Sorry, I just don't want to get the thread off track.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's in the title! I'm advocating Alvarez even with Fowler. He's an upgrade over Reimold/Rickard/Paredes. Sorry, I just don't want to get the thread off track.

He's a better hitter than those guys. But he can't field at all, anywhere. You don't sign a pure DH who could kind of fill in at 1B/3B when you have two first basemen on the roster and a spectacular 3B. Kim plays over Alvarez because you have to have a LFer. Paredes is likely to end up as Norfolk's DH after he passes through waivers. Reimold makes the team as the backup outfielder/Kim platoon mate. Trumbo and Davis are minus-minus outfielders. They play there only in an emergency, or maybe a sporadic platoon-lite with Trumbo.

Alvarez might have been a good sign in 1985 when you had a long bench and pinch hitting and multiple offensive subs each game were things.

[Frobby]

For me the main issue would be whether the O's have another $4 mm to spend, and if they do, whether they need to save it to spend at the deadline. I'm already pretty blown away by what our payroll will look like if we sign Gallardo and Fowler.

[OFFNY]

It's in the title! I'm advocating Alvarez even with Fowler. He's an upgrade over Reimold/Rickard/Paredes. Sorry, I just don't want to get the thread off track.

He's a better hitter than those guys. But he can't field at all, anywhere. You don't sign a pure DH who could kind of fill in at 1B/3B when you have two first basemen on the roster and a spectacular 3B. Kim plays over Alvarez because you have to have a LFer. Paredes is likely to end up as Norfolk's DH after he passes through waivers. Reimold makes the team as the backup outfielder/Kim platoon mate. Trumbo and Davis are minus-minus outfielders. They play there only in an emergency, or maybe a sporadic platoon-lite with Trumbo.

Alvarez might have been a good sign in 1985 when you had a long bench and pinch hitting and multiple offensive subs each game were things.

He also has a low OBP (.309 for his career.) Duquette has made it clear that we already have the sluggers, and that we need guys that will improve the OBP ...... so that said sluggers can knock them in. Plus, he's slow. The last thing that this team needs is to get even slower on the basepaths than they already are.

I think that signing Alvarez would make no sense, especially if we sign Fowler.

[CaptainRedbeard]

He's a better hitter than those guys. But he can't field at all, anywhere. You don't sign a pure DH who could kind of fill in at 1B/3B when you have two first basemen on the roster and a spectacular 3B. Kim plays over Alvarez because you have to have a LFer. Paredes is likely to end up as Norfolk's DH after he passes through waivers. Reimold makes the team as the backup outfielder/Kim platoon mate. Trumbo and Davis are minus-minus outfielders. They play there only in an emergency, or maybe a sporadic platoon-lite with Trumbo.

Alvarez might have been a good sign in 1985 when you had a long bench and pinch hitting and multiple offensive subs each game were things.

Davis has actually graded out pretty well as a RF in a small sample. He's not good by any means but he may be merely below average rather than dreadful. He's extremely athletic for a big man. You don't want him playing OF every day and he probably has very limited time left in which he can cut it out there, but he's not as bad as you're making it sound. This would be for just a one year arrangement. Trumbo, well, no arguments there.

Even if Alvarez barely plays at all, we've come out on top. That means nobody has gotten hurt. We only have one starting player that needs to be platooned, and we'll still have the RH OF on the bench for it between Reimold/Rickard. If Alvarez is playing alot, it's because something has gone wrong, in which case we're almost certainly better off with him than not.

With Fowler, having both Reimold and Rickard is redundant. Our other option would be Paredes, and Alvarez is just a much better version of him. You're right in that modern times require the use of less bench players. That's the exact reason you want to use it on somebody on Alvarez, who's an insurance policy and actually has some plus traits that aren't redundant with the other players on the bench.

[CaptainRedbeard]

For me the main issue would be whether the O's have another $4 mm to spend, and if they do, whether they need to save it to spend at the deadline. I'm already pretty blown away by what our payroll will look like if we sign Gallardo and Fowler.

Yeah, this is the main reason IMO that this won't happen. But if we assume the money is there, I still think this would be a good place to spend it. He could be as cheap as Carter's $2.5MM, which you'd think would be affordable.

[Babypowder]

Davis doesn't want to play the outfield regularly, Buck show alter doesn't want Davis to play in the outfield regularly, and the Orioles gave Davis assurances he would be playing first base. Davis is playing first base.

[oriole]

I would prefer Alvarez to Trumbo at DH but it's doubtful Trumbo is traded so Alvare won't be an Oriole.

[Enjoy Terror]

If we have Fowler, I don't see the need for Alvarez with Trumbo seeing the majority of playing time at DH. I'm happy with Reimold spelling all three outfielders occasionally and Rickard as a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

I'm extremely curious to know if Paredes is on the team come opening day. It's hard to keep a DH who can't hit (see: Alex Guerrero).

[oriole]

If we have Fowler, I don't see the need for Alvarez with Trumbo seeing the majority of playing time at DH. I'm happy with Reimold spelling all three outfielders occasionally and Rickard as a pinch runner/defensive replacement.

I'm extremely curious to know if Paredes is on the team come opening day. It's hard to keep a DH who can't hit (see: Alex Guerrero).

I'm curious if Paredes would pass through waivers. I've been told before there is no purpose stashing him at Norfolk since he has such a low chance to be a productive major league player but I still think if he can get hot at the right moment he could be useful to have around. Just not on the 40 man roster.