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Keith Law: Sisco no. 81 prospect, Harvey no. 100


Frobby

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I never thought the Os would have this "vacant" sign when it comes to our minor league system. When it comes to our ability to compete, short of a $150M payroll, a quality minor league system has been of significant importance since I've been at the Hangout since 2001. This current run has been paid for with the cheapness of Tillman, Chen, Davis, Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman. We are running out of quality cheap guys to bring to the majors.

If folks want to claim an Os victory with Mychal Givens, about the last remnant of our prior scouting director, that is truly sad. I have not seen an analysis, but I imagine the Os WAR from rookie contributors was in the bottom third of the league last year and is almost certain to be there or even the bottom five teams for the next three to five years. Very, very sad.

So, yeah we did bring up a reliever last year - oh joy.

I don't disagree with the general direction of your post,but I feel you've exaggerated the point a bit. We debuted several players last year, including Givens, Wright, Wilson, Drake and Alvarez. Not really a terrible yield. Over the last five years, the average AL East team has produced 1.3 players per season who average 1+ WAR per season. So the fact that we produced only one last year (Givens) is not that worrisome. Nor do I see a system that is totally barren. Harvey, Bundy, Sisco, Reyes and Mancini are all guys with interesting potential and there are others who could be contributors.

Again, it's not that I'm happy with the state of our farm system, I just think your comments were a bit over the top.

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If Team A has an 80% success rate in developing minor leaguers and team B has a 40% success rate than team B needs twice as many prospects, not half as many.

Poor development is not an excuse for giving away picks, all it does is exacerbate the situation.

And having more picks doesn't fix the root problem. Scouting and development. FA is a quick way to add talent. Are the Orioles supposed to just drop out of signing FA that require draft picks? Two "can't miss" SP have severe arm issues. Bad luck or the way they are being handled? I don't know.

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And having more picks doesn't fix the root problem. Scouting and development. FA is a quick way to add talent. Are the Orioles supposed to just drop out of signing FA that require draft picks? Two "can't miss" SP have severe arm issues. Bad luck or the way they are being handled? I don't know.

Obviously you attempt to improve the process. Doesn't mean you you sell the picks.

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Obviously you attempt to improve the process. Doesn't mean you you sell the picks.

I honestly don't like the comp pick rule anyhow. It hurts teams like the Orioles. They are on the fence, and lose their pick and they suffer. Teams like LA, NY, and Bos just buy up the international talent.

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I honestly don't like the comp pick rule anyhow. It hurts teams like the Orioles. They are on the fence, and lose their pick and they suffer. Teams like LA, NY, and Bos just buy up the international talent.

Something that serves to help reign in the cost of free agents and it hurts the Orioles?

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I don't disagree with the general direction of your post,but I feel you've exaggerated the point a bit. We debuted several players last year, including Givens, Wright, Wilson, Drake and Alvarez. Not really a terrible yield. Over the last five years, the average AL East team has produced 1.3 players per season who average 1+ WAR per season. So the fact that we produced only one last year (Givens) is not that worrisome. Nor do I see a system that is totally barren. Harvey, Bundy, Sisco, Reyes and Mancini are all guys with interesting potential and there are others who could be contributors.

Again, it's not that I'm happy with the state of our farm system, I just think your comments were a bit over the top.

So, let's start with this thread you've started, Frobby. Before you disagree with me about the fact that we have some "interesting potential", do you agree with Keith Law's opinion? The Os have none of the top 80 prospects and some fringe top 100 guys? Because it seems you disagree with KLaw who you brought into the discussion more than me.

I really have issue with the last five year's contribution of 1.3 guys averaging 1 WAR you noted. The Os number is somewhat skewed by Machado and Britton and now those guys are entering their pre-arb years. Their salaries are going to escalate quickly. Who contributed last year? Who will contribute next year? The Os are clearly falling behind the pace of quality, young contributors within ALL of baseball and not just the ALEast.

You see, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, the Os recently had among the best under 25 talent in all of MLB. That spoke to the talent DD inherited and, IMO, speaks to the likelihood of our gaining playoff spots during the run with even an average GM which is a separate discussion. A lot of the under 25 talent is either no longer under 25 or is in their pre-arb years or has been traded. A lot has happened in those two years.

Finally, our FO appears on a plan to forfeit our top two picks this year in order to land Gallardo/Fowler. Pretty much all of baseball will add one, two or three picks to their existing minor league talent base before we add our next pick. It's not just that we are limited to four or five guys who might make the BA Top 100 in the next year or two(fewer if we trade anyone this season), but that our ability to place guys on the next 200 top prospects is pretty limited as well. Pretty much all of baseball will have two or three better prospects for EACH of our top five.

It is truly a sad state of affairs and I really don't think the comments were "over the top".

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I don't think Zach Britton figures into Frobby's 1.3 number. He didn't crack 1.0 WAR (at least rWAR) in his rookie season. And most guys from 2011 will be in their Arb years (not pre-arb).

From my count, there have been 5 guys over the past 5 years to have a WAR of 1 or greater in their debut year.

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So, let's start with this thread you've started, Frobby. Before you disagree with me about the fact that we have some "interesting potential", do you agree with Keith Law's opinion? The Os have none of the top 80 prospects and some fringe top 100 guys? Because it seems you disagree with KLaw who you brought into the discussion more than me.

I really have issue with the last five year's contribution of 1.3 guys averaging 1 WAR you noted. The Os number is somewhat skewed by Machado and Britton and now those guys are entering their pre-arb years. Their salaries are going to escalate quickly. Who contributed last year? Who will contribute next year? The Os are clearly falling behind the pace of quality, young contributors within ALL of baseball and not just the ALEast.

You see, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, the Os recently had among the best under 25 talent in all of MLB. That spoke to the talent DD inherited and, IMO, speaks to the likelihood of our gaining playoff spots during the run with even an average GM which is a separate discussion. A lot of the under 25 talent is either no longer under 25 or is in their pre-arb years or has been traded. A lot has happened in those two years.

Finally, our FO appears on a plan to forfeit our top two picks this year in order to land Gallardo/Fowler. Pretty much all of baseball will add one, two or three picks to their existing minor league talent base before we add our next pick. It's not just that we are limited to four or five guys who might make the BA Top 100 in the next year or two(fewer if we trade anyone this season), but that our ability to place guys on the next 200 top prospects is pretty limited as well. Pretty much all of baseball will have two or three better prospects for EACH of our top five.

It is truly a sad state of affairs and I really don't think the comments were "over the top".

I neither agree nor disagree with Keith Law's opinion. I've never seen a single minor league game in about 9 years, so how would I know whether our prospects are better than some other team's, or whether Keith Law's list is better than BA's, or BP's, or MLB Pipeline's, or KATOH's? But I do think I've read enough and seen enough statistically to believe that the five players I mentioned have pretty good upside and that others could be contributors. I think I also know enough to realize that our farm system is well below average on the whole, and I've never suggested otherwise.

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I don't think Zach Britton figures into Frobby's 1.3 number. He didn't crack 1.0 WAR (at least rWAR) in his rookie season. And most guys from 2011 will be in their Arb years (not pre-arb).

From my count, there have been 5 guys over the past 5 years to have a WAR of 1 or greater in their debut year.

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To clarify, my list is not guys who had 1 WAR in their first season. It's guys who debuted in the last five years who have averaged at least 1 WAR per season. So yes, Britton is on that list, along with Manny, Gausman, Joseph and Givens. Schoop misses because he's at 2.9 and played a handful of games in 2013, but will probably be on the list next year by accruing more than 1.1 WAR in 2016.

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To clarify, my list is not guys who had 1 WAR in their first season. It's guys who debuted in the last five years who have averaged at least 1 WAR per season. So yes, Britton is on that list, along with Manny, Gausman, Joseph and Givens. Schoop misses because he's at 2.9 and played a handful of games in 2013, but will probably be on the list next year by accruing more than 1.1 WAR in 2016.

Okay, thanks. I don't think I'd weigh his 5 games in 2013 as much as his 2014-15 seasons, but now I better understand your approach.

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Something that serves to help reign in the cost of free agents and it hurts the Orioles?

How has it reigned in the cost of FA? Did you see the amount of money that was spent this offseason? It hasn't changed a thing. The same teams are still in play for the big names. And the rest are left to overpay for the borderline players money wise and lose a pick to boot.

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How has it reigned in the cost of FA? Did you see the amount of money that was spent this offseason? It hasn't changed a thing. The same teams are still in play for the big names. And the rest are left to overpay for the borderline players money wise and lose a pick to boot.

Sure it has. Do you think the O's can sign Ubaldo and Cruz without their being a pick attached to them?

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Sure it has. Do you think the O's can sign Ubaldo and Cruz without their being a pick attached to them?

And they in turn lost their picks to do so. So they saved money, but lost a chance to stock the farm. Much like what may happen with Gallardo and Fowler. So, I guess we should be thankful for the chance to get these two then.

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And they in turn lost their picks to do so. So they saved money, but lost a chance to stock the farm. Much like what may happen with Gallardo and Fowler. So, I guess we should be thankful for the chance to get these two then.

I wasn't in favor of the moves at the time but I don't think there is any doubt that the QO made them possible. Just like Fowler would be signed without the pick, and someone is going to get a bargain when he does sign.

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