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How Important is the 14th Pick?


brianod

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The first amateur baseball draft was held in 1965. Here are the notable players from that draft and the pick where they were drafted:

Rick Monday 1

Bernie Carbo 16

Del Unser 29

Johnny Bench 36

Larry Hisle 38

Andy Messersmith 53

Ken Holtzman 61

Greg Nettles 74

Amos Otis 95

Hal McRae 117

Sal Bando 119

Tom Seaver 190

Nolan Ryan 226

Darrell Evans 241

Bob Moose 342

Gene Garber 382

Gene Tenace 399

Freddie Patek 421

Steve Renko 461

Those not mentioned were either backups or never made it. Interesting to note that 2-15 never amounted to much and there were several hall of famers drafted late. I must admit, I didn't carry this analysis into the later years. Maybe gms have gotten much better and the first round matters more than it used to. I don't know. If nothing else, it's an interesting tidbit of information.

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The first amateur baseball draft was held in 1965. Here are the notable players from that draft and the pick where they were drafted:

Rick Monday 1

Bernie Carbo 16

Del Unser 29

Johnny Bench 36

Larry Hisle 38

Andy Messersmith 53

Ken Holtzman 61

Greg Nettles 74

Amos Otis 95

Hal McRae 117

Sal Bando 119

Tom Seaver 190

Nolan Ryan 226

Darrell Evans 241

Bob Moose 342

Gene Garber 382

Gene Tenace 399

Freddie Patek 421

Steve Renko 461

Those not mentioned were either backups or never made it. Interesting to note that 2-15 never amounted to much and there were several hall of famers drafted late. I must admit, I didn't carry this analysis into the later years. Maybe gms have gotten much better and the first round matters more than it used to. I don't know. If nothing else, it's an interesting tidbit of information.

One more year, 2000:

Adrian Gonzalez was drafted #1. Utley at 15, Wainwhright at 29.

After 100, we have Cliff Lee, Yadier Molines, Aaron Hill, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb, E. Encarnacion, Corey Hart, Fred Sanchez, Brad Hawpe, Jason Kubel. James shields at 466, Napoli at 500, Rich Harden at 510, J Batista at 599, J. Bay at 610, Jason Hammel at 686 and Nate Mcclouth at 749 Ian Kinsler at 879 and Adam Laroche at 880. I'm not cherry picking here, those not mentioned were below average or didn't make it.

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I suppose that the answer to that question isn't simple. From a flexibility stans point if the Orioles lose the 14th overall selection and the 28th round pick per the Gallardo/Fowler combo then the amount they are allocated for all rounds decreases. If they take the money that they saved by not selecting in those spots and spend it on a top flight international prospect or two, then they are stocking the system in other ways. Personally, I wish MLB let teams trade picks. It could make it easier for teams to rebuild while letting other teams go all in a bit more frequently. If the O's sign Gallardo and Fowler and win a World Series in the next few years all will be forgiven. If we lose those picks and do not win then people will hate the moves. If an All Star is picked at either spot this board will see many "what if" type posts.

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Considering how thin the Orioles farm system is right now, I feel pretty confident saying the player they would select with the 14th pick would immediately fit into the club's top 5 prospects. To take this further, the next pick they'd lose with Fowler would also probably be a top 10 prospect in this system.

Whether they pan out or not isn't so much the question as getting more chances to land a guy that could turn into a valuable piece at some point, be it in OPACY or as a trade chip.

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If you believe we can win it all, I think you give up the picks. There are many variables, and you don't know how long the window will be open. We haven't won the World Series since 1983. If you have a shot, take it. If you don't think Gallardo and/or Fowler can take you to the promised land, keep the picks.

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I do not think that trading picks will happen until the CBA addresses the QO and the picks associated with the QO.

I also think that the "Protected Picks" (First Ten Picks) should be done with a weighted lottery system as this would keep teams from "Tanking" if it is associated with the higher picks.

I would like to see the ability to trade the picks IF for no other reason the picks then would be assigned a real value (player trade for).

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If you believe we can win it all, I think you give up the picks. There are many variables, and you don't know how long the window will be open. We haven't won the World Series since 1983. If you have a shot, take it. If you don't think Gallardo and/or Fowler can take you to the promised land, keep the picks.

Window's closed. The Royals' bullpen closed it.

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