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How Important is the 14th Pick?


brianod

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If you believe we can win it all, I think you give up the picks. There are many variables, and you don't know how long the window will be open. We haven't won the World Series since 1983. If you have a shot, take it. If you don't think Gallardo and/or Fowler can take you to the promised land, keep the picks.

If you think we can win it all, then you sign Price or equivalent. Or If you think Gallardo is equal to Chen the resign Chen and then sign Gallardo.

Gallardo isn't the difference between winning and losing a World Series. Fowler too.

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If you think we can win it all, then you sign Price or equivalent. Or If you think Gallardo is equal to Chen the resign Chen and then sign Gallardo.

Gallardo isn't the difference between winning and losing a World Series. Fowler too.

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And you know this how? Maybe Gallardo and Fowler give us 5-6 extra wins, which gets us to the playoffs. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

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If you think we can win it all, then you sign Price or equivalent. Or If you think Gallardo is equal to Chen the resign Chen and then sign Gallardo.

Gallardo isn't the difference between winning and losing a World Series. Fowler too.

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Price 31 million a year. Chen 16 million per year. 47 million per year. For so many years.

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If you believe we can win it all, I think you give up the picks. There are many variables, and you don't know how long the window will be open. We haven't won the World Series since 1983. If you have a shot, take it. If you don't think Gallardo and/or Fowler can take you to the promised land, keep the picks.

Even teams that are totally stacked, the odds are long that they'll "win it all." This is all about likelihood. Do you sacrifice future talent to increase the likelihood from, say, 4% to 6%? These are the sorts of numbers we're realistically talking about. I pulled those out of my ass, and honestly they're probably more generous to what adding Fowler and Gallardo would do for this team. It may still be the right move for the team, only because our system is already totally gutted and we may as well leverage our decent major league team, but the bolded comment above is simplistic.

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Even teams that are totally stacked, the odds are long that they'll "win it all." This is all about likelihood. Do you sacrifice future talent to increase the likelihood from, say, 4% to 6%? These are the sorts of numbers we're realistically talking about. I pulled those out of my ass, and honestly they're probably more generous to what adding Fowler and Gallardo would do for this team. It may still be the right move for the team, only because our system is already totally gutted and we may as well leverage our decent major league team, but the bolded comment above is simplistic.

Last year vatech made a comment about how Toronto's moves really increased their chances at a ring and I replied with "What, up to 18%?" He came back a bit later and agreed that 18% was probably a pretty accurate figure. And this is after they were basically assured a playoff spot.

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Last year vatech made a comment about how Toronto's moves really increased their chances at a ring and I replied with "What, up to 18%?" He came back a bit later and agreed that 18% was probably a pretty accurate figure. And this is after they were basically assured a playoff spot.

This is why I get so apoplectic about the Miller and Parra deals. Giving up 6 years of cost controlled talent to move the dial by a percentage point or two is stupid.

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And you know this how? Maybe Gallardo and Fowler give us 5-6 extra wins, which gets us to the playoffs. Once the playoffs start, anything can happen.

We lost Chen, Gallardo replaces him. Fowler may give us two wins. That only gets us to 83.

We are taking a huge gamble that Tillman and Gonzo bounce back for the other 6+ wins, and even that just gets us a wild card. Most of the objective projections have us at or below .500 without Fowler and Gallardo. It's hard to see how a couple of 2 WAR guys gets us in the playoffs let alone with a serious shot to win it all.

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I thought this was going to be a foolish thread when I opened it. I didn't realize just how correct I was.

You know what would be a better analysis? Looking at the results of the 2015 NBA draft to see how the #14 pick fared.

The #13 pick from the 2014 NBA draft is doing okay. Well this past weekend anyway.

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We lost Chen, Gallardo replaces him. Fowler may give us two wins. That only gets us to 83.

We are taking a huge gamble that Tillman and Gonzo bounce back for the other 6+ wins, and even that just gets us a wild card. Most of the objective projections have us at or below .500 without Fowler and Gallardo. It's hard to see how a couple of 2 WAR guys gets us in the playoffs let alone with a serious shot to win it all.

Agreed on the second part... but our pythag last year was 85 and we're looking at a range. Adding two to that is 87 which should have us competing for 82-92 wins.

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It was 83.

Okay, misremembered... thanks CoC. Rep for you.

At that level though, adding even one WAR is pretty significant if our actual wins are likely within five of our pythag (which ain't perfect). Adding two to 83 (plus Trumbo, Kim... minus Chen) puts us around 85. +/-5 wins from there is way better than even a few wins lower. Every potential win added at that level is enormous.

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I thought this was going to be a foolish thread when I opened it. I didn't realize just how correct I was.

You know what would be a better analysis? Looking at the results of the 2015 NBA draft to see how the #14 pick fared.

I asked a question, I didn't say the pick wasn't important. I didn't advocate for the proposed moves.

My obvious point is that good organizations can draft well in the 3rd round and below and that trading the #1 and #2 picks shouldn't preclude us from getting 2-3 major leaguers in the draft.

It's responses like yours that cause me to rarely post on this board anymore. I don't need to deal with your false superiority. I made a good point and asked a question and got called foolish. Nice. Why don't you and the ten regular posters on this board consider it might be a better place if you stopped responding like that.

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This is why I get so apoplectic about the Miller and Parra deals. Giving up 6 years of cost controlled talent to move the dial by a percentage point or two is stupid.

Big difference in those deals though. The Miller deal gave us the 3rd shutdown reliever and made the team a legitimate World Series contender. The Parra was just awful because the team was a .500 team, Parra wasn't going to move the needle enough to even make this team a wild card team. In other words, I'm willing to give up that control if the move makes the team a legitmate World Series contender, but not just to try and sneak into the playoffs with a flawed team.

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Price 31 million a year. Chen 16 million per year. 47 million per year. For so many years.

You gotta play to win. There's nothing to suggest that the Orioles can't pay it, only the evidence that they refuse.

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