Does the Orioles' New Payroll Change Your Opinion on the Wieters QO?

[El Gordo]

If we didn't have Joseph, we'd have a black hole at catcher so, yes, it would be worth it for this year to have Wieters on a 1/15.8M contract.

Why couldn't we have signed a Jordan Zimmerman and outbid the Tigers for him? Why couldn't we have used some or all of that 15.8M to invest in this year's Latin market or a Cuban player?

Wieters accrued 2.6 WAR in 148 games in his last full season in 2013.

Joseph accrued 1.4 WAR last year in 100 games. I don't think the gap is as big as you think, especially with Wieters declining defensively and his elbow still not 100% certain to be as good or durable as before. I think a Joseph (100 games)/Clevenger platoon could have put up 2 WAR. I don't expect Wieters to be much above 2.5.

You could ask Peter Angelos that question but you already know his answer.

[utvolzac]

Cespedes would have wanted 6/140 M to play for the O's and Kazmir 5/90M, IMO. So that comes to 41.3 as compared to Gallardo's and Fowler's combined 35.8 M

Where are you getting the extra years from. Both these guys signed 3 year deals.

I would expect Kazmir to want more money to play in a hitters park, but not almost double what he signed for in LA.

I don't see any reason at all the Cespedes wouldn't have accepted a similar deal to play in Baltimore had we not signed Davis and lost interest in him.

It's not like the O's are some doormat like we were from years past. Your numbers seem way inflated.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If we didn't have Joseph, we'd have a black hole at catcher so, yes, it would be worth it for this year to have Wieters on a 1/15.8M contract.

Why couldn't we have signed a Jordan Zimmerman and outbid the Tigers for him? Why couldn't we have used some or all of that 15.8M to invest in this year's Latin market or a Cuban player?

Wieters accrued 2.6 WAR in 148 games in his last full season in 2013.

Joseph accrued 1.4 WAR last year in 100 games. I don't think the gap is as big as you think, especially with Wieters declining defensively and his elbow still not 100% certain to be as good or durable as before. I think a Joseph (100 games)/Clevenger platoon could have put up 2 WAR. I don't expect Wieters to be much above 2.5.

Jordan Zimmerman would have been good, I won't argue with that. He's really the only player I can think of though. I think the Tigers got ahead of the market on him, it's not like the Orioles to make that kind of deal, but point well taken. As for the international market, I think the Cuban players are a bubble that's about to burst, and they're so expensive now that Wieters' $15MM doesn't buy you anything there. I would like to see them do more in the international amateur market, but that's just not the Orioles' MO. I think Wieters' money was going to the major league team or staying in Angelos' pockets. In a weird way, giving up the picks may be the only thing that motivates them to do more there.

I think your opinion of Joseph is too high. He's certainly tolerable as a starter and a tremendous late-career success story, but he's not good by any stretch of the imagination. He's 29 and has extremely limited offensive ability. He's projected for a .232/.286/.368 line and 0.6 fWAR in 187 PA. The best he'd be expected to do as a full time player this year is repeat his 1.4 WAR from last year when he started 100 games.

The current fangraphs depth chart has Wieters/Joseph/Pena worth 3.0 WAR. That's with a pretty conservative 384 PA season from Wieters, worth 2.2 fWAR; if you take the 452 PA that Steamer has him at, that's 2.6 fWAR. Without Wieters, you'd have Joseph's ~1.5 WAR in a full time role and a bunch of replacement level guys. I don't think Clevenger was going to be anything other than replacement level, which means Wieters is still worth about 1.5 WAR over that scenario, and probably more if he gets more playing time.

[Spy Fox]

I still think the O's would have probably been better off if Wieters had rejected the offer.

I still think at the time it was logical to predict that Wieters would reject the offer, thus logical to make the offer.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I still think the O's would have probably been better off if Wieters had rejected the offer.

I still think at the time it was logical to predict that Wieters would reject the offer, thus logical to make the offer.

Agree with this. They'd be better off if he had rejected it. But I don't think it's really hurt them all that much that he accepted it, now that they're running a $150MM payroll.

[El Gordo]

Where are you getting the extra years from. Both these guys signed 3 year deals.

I would expect Kazmir to want more money to play in a hitters park, but not almost double what he signed for in LA.

I don't see any reason at all the Cespedes wouldn't have accepted a similar deal to play in Baltimore had we not signed Davis and lost interest in him.

It's not like the O's are some doormat like we were from years past. Your numbers seem way inflated.

Yes but they signed with clubs they preferred to play for and both got opt outs. We didn't lose interest in Cespedes. The reports were the money was still on the table after Davis signed. He wanted to play in NY.

[El Gordo]

I was asked what could have been done, not what Peter Angelos would allow to be done.

The only thing that could have been done in the real world, is what PA would allow. Thats pretty basic even if it doesn't fit with your narrative. You could spend that money as you like if you were the wanna be GM of another club.

[Chavez Ravine]

Cespedes would have wanted 6/140 M to play for the O's and Kazmir 5/90M, IMO. So that comes to 41.3 as compared to Gallardo's and Fowler's combined 35.8 M

Plus an arguably greater risk of being stuck paying dead weight sunk costs that clog up roster spots.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I would love to hear Tony's opinion on this (you know, when normal people are awake). I remember him being heavily critical of the Wieters QO.

[Note that I don't mean this thread as any kind of "I told you so" to the critics of the QO. In no world could I have expected the O's to go out and raise payroll the way they did. I thought the QO acceptance was going to be much more damaging than it was, I was just ok with taking the risk to offer it. Just curious as to the opinions of people who were critical because of the impact on the budget, now that the budget is way larger than anticipated]

[DrungoHazewood]

I think this is a decent question to ask because I think many of the QO opponents stated reason was that because of Wieters accepting a 1/15 deal they were already at or near a payroll ceiling of about $120M. So nothing else meaningful would happen this offseason. Circumstances have certainly changed that.

I was and remain a big advocate of the QO regardless of payroll.

[Redskins Rick]

Where are those posters that were pushing the panic button last season, they wanted a fire sale, because DD wasn't going to be able to resign our guys, or bring in replacements?

I guess the doomsday and come and gone, and the world is still turning. Image that!

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think this is a decent question to ask because I think many of the QO opponents stated reason was that because of Wieters accepting a 1/15 deal they were already at or near a payroll ceiling of about $120M. So nothing else meaningful would happen this offseason. Circumstances have certainly changed that.

I was and remain a big advocate of the QO regardless of payroll.

Thanks Drungo. That's exactly what I'm trying to get at. I think the information asymmetry between the fans and the FO at the time of the QO with regard to how high the payroll could go created alot of criticism on the QO that otherwise would not have happened. Looking back, it's probably right to give DD a bit more credit than it looked like he deserved at the time.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Does anybody know what the final payroll will be now with Gallardo and Fowler in the books? The rosiest predictions at the start of the offseason were probably $120MM, and I'm sure we've blown way past that.