Just go trade for Jay Bruce or Markakis

[Crazysilver03]

Yeah, for what Bruce is due to be paid I'll bet he can produce at least two wins. Paredes, a definite no.

So you think he magically gets good again? When there is nothing to suggest that except his salary? Is that the logic in this post?

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[Crazysilver03]

It's more likely the numbers you cite are the outliers and injuries played some part in 2014. Defensively he was -7 DRS in RF in 2014 and a +5 last year while a plus defender for most of his career. In any case, your comparison to Paredes is a poor one.

So you have a reason for him being bad in 2014. Now what about 2015? If you can't come up with a reason then that likely means his skillset has regressed.

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[Il BuonO]

It wasn't the only measure used and I think it's relevant because Bruce is capable of more than the level he's played at the last two years. And that's based on projecting his skill level not merely his name.

So you think he magically gets good again? When there is nothing to suggest that except his salary? Is that the logic in this post?

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The post above was the response to your earlier post. There is no magic, just as I said, I believe his skill level is closer to a 2 win player.

So you have a reason for him being bad in 2014. Now what about 2015? If you can't come up with a reason then that likely means his skillset has regressed.

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Again, defensively last year he was above average. So, regressed offensively? Yes.

[DrungoHazewood]

The post above was the response to your earlier post. There is no magic, just as I said, I believe his skill level is closer to a 2 win player.

I'm still curious why you think this. I'd love for it to be true, especially if the O's acquire him. I just don't know why a 2-win player would go into a deep two-year slump.

Again, defensively last year he was above average. So, regressed offensively? Yes.

Is there any particular reason to think DRS more accurately represents his ability than UZR? The Fans Scouting report says he's an above-average defender, but also has him even with Gerardo Parra, so I'm not quite sure what to make of that.

[weams]

The post above was the response to your earlier post. There is no magic, just as I said, I believe his skill level is closer to a 2 win player.

Again, defensively last year he was above average. So, regressed offensively? Yes.

I believe magically, in a good lineup with AL east parks as a steady diet, that his power will play up and the iso will be the magic that makes that happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

If a guy hangs out at around replacement level two years in a row I generally assume he is going to be in the 1.0- -1.0 range going forward.

I'd love to see a list of players who were really good, then were relatively healthy but replacement-level for two years, then rebounded.

[weams]

I'm still curious why you think this. I'd love for it to be true, especially if the O's acquire him. I just don't know why a 2-win player would go into a deep two-year slump.

Is there any particular reason to think DRS more accurately represents his ability than UZR? The Fans Scouting report says he's an above-average defender, but also has him even with Gerardo Parra, so I'm not quite sure what to make of that.

He was hurt two years ago and just recovering last year. I think he wore out after the team took the tailspin as well. A lot of talk of him moving on from July on and it did not occur. Could be several reasons why he was not up to his skill set.

[weams]

I'd love to see a list of players who were really good, then were relatively healthy but replacement-level for two years, then rebounded.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2015/02/27/injury-affected-reds-jay-bruce-all-year/24116067/

Knee surgery then back playing in two weeks. That can make a power base disappear for a bit.

"Of course, we put him through all the paces. There wasn't anything he didn't do, except play. In retrospect, it would have been a good idea to play for four or five days. But I'm saying this after the fact. He passed all the tests. He got the thumbs. We went with it. I don't think we saw Jay Bruce at 100 percent any time after the injury last year

Torn Meniscus.

[weams]

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/redsblog/2015/02/27/injury-affected-reds-jay-bruce-all-year/24116067/

Knee surgery then back playing in two weeks. That can make a power base disappear for a bit.

Torn Meniscus.

"I think it's something he's had for a while. It inflamed on him," Jocketty said. "I'm sure he did it playing, but we don't know when."

"

[Can_of_corn]

I'd love to see a list of players who were really good, then were relatively healthy but replacement-level for two years, then rebounded.

But Pagliacci, you are the one that provides those lists for us.

[weams]

I'd love to see a list of players who were really good, then were relatively healthy but replacement-level for two years, then rebounded.

But Pagliacci, you are the one that provides those lists for us.

He wasn't replacement level for two years, but he was Travis Snider level for two.

[mdbdotcom]

But Pagliacci, you are the one that provides those lists for us.

[Can_of_corn]

So that wasn't too far a reach?

I wasn't sure.

[mdbdotcom]

So that wasn't too far a reach?

I wasn't sure.

You pretty much nailed it. I just hope Drungo can sing.

[e16bball]

For what reasons do you think Bruce will bounce back? In all seriousness, I don't have any idea why he's played poorly, I'd love for him to come to Baltimore to play well, but I don't have any objective evidence that he's still the player he was three years ago.

I think the argument in favor of a Bruce bounce-back would have to revolve around (a) 2014 being an injury-affected down season and (b) 2015 being a particularly BABIP-unlucky season.

As to 2014, I think the argument that Bruce's injury played a major role is fairly straightforward. He'd been one player (120ish wRC+/OPS+, .225ish ISO, 10% BB rate, 35% hard contact rate, average to above-average COF defense, playing basically every day) remarkably consistently for four years. Almost Adam Jones sort of consistency, actually, especially in the baseball card stats.

Then he fell off precipitously in virtually every aspect of the game in 2014, at age 27. ISO drops by 60-70 points, GB rate skyrockets, K rate reaches a career high, steep drop in hard contact, defense is significantly worse across the board. Given that such a comprehensive ability nosedive is fairly unusual at that age, and that he had a rather significant in-season knee surgery in May, I think it's fair to conclude that his horrendous 2014 season could have been largely related to the effects of the injury.

Which leaves us with 2015. At first blush, I agree, it appears that his season indicates merely a continuation of the regression in his skillset. But I'm not so sure that's the case; in fact, I think in many ways, he was much closer to the 2010-2013 Jay Bruce than the 2014 version. Just a few bald comparisons of the three faces of Bruce:

BB rate

2010-13: 9.9%

2014: 8.1%

2015: 8.9%

K rate

2010-13: 24.7%

2014: 27.3%

2015: 22.3%

ISO

2010-13: .227

2014: .156

2015: .209

GB rate

2010-13: 36.2%

2014: 45.2%

2015: 37.0%

Hard Contact

2010-13: 35.7%

2014: 32.9%

2015: 35.4%

BABIP

2010-13: .309

2014: .269

2015: .251

In essence, most of the constituent aspects of his offensive performance already have bounced back. At least to some extent. The laggard is that BABIP, which somehow dipped even lower than it had in 2014. Which in turn dragged his batting average down to .226, despite a career-low K rate. *IF* he had posted a batting average in line with his 2010-2013 norms, with his 2015 BB rate and ISO, he would have had a line of .262/.330/.470/.800 and an OPS+ right around 115. In other words, if his BABIP hadn't been so bad, Bruce actually would have been pretty solid.

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