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Two fangraphs articles discussing the Alvarez acquisition


Frobby

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/orioles-settle-for-option-c-turn-dh-into-right-fielder/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-the-orioles-going-to-strike-out-too-much/

The first article concludes that most of what the O's will gain offensively by adding Alvarez, they will lose defensively from moving Trumbo to the outfield.

The second article uses the fact that Alvarez will add to Orioles' strikeout tendencies, to launch into an analysis of how team strikeout rate correlates to team underperformance. It's an interesting study that concludes that teams that are at the very high end on strikeouts tend to win 2.8 fewer games than their BaseRuns totals would suggest. (BaseRuns is a projection of how many runs a team "should" score or allow based on component stats. It is explained in some detail here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/team-record-pythagorean-record-and-base-runs/)

So, there is some fuel for the fire for Herman and others who are worried about how many strikeouts the Orioles may compile.

My opinion is you have to be balanced in looking at these things. Strikeouts do matter, they just don't matter as much as some people think, and they have to be viewed in the context of whatever else a player/team brings to the table.

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I think it's important that Alvarez does not see the light of day when lefties are on the mound.

For his career, he's terrible against lefties, but he did okay last year. Maybe he just needed the experience.

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Still sounds like the O's need to trade Trumbo to a place where he can play 1B/DH. And the O's still need a decent lefthanded outfielder in return.

Buck doesn't like to prejudge on reputation. He likes to see it himself. But Trumbo's history in the outfield is pretty extensive.

Alvarez helps balance the lineup. He does fit at DH vs righties. Trumbo is not a fit in rightfield if his history means anything.

Maybe Dan is not done. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

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Still sounds like the O's need to trade Trumbo to a place where he can play 1B/DH. And the O's still need a decent lefthanded outfielder in return.

Buck doesn't like to prejudge on reputation. He likes to see it himself. But Trumbo's history in the outfield is pretty extensive.

Alvarez helps balance the lineup. He does fit at DH vs righties. Trumbo is not a fit in rightfield if his history means anything.

Maybe Dan is not done. Maybe, maybe, maybe.

I bet we can get a third string catcher for him if we throw in a reliever. :)

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I bet we can get a third string catcher for him if we throw in a reliever. :)

and we pay 1/2 his salary

DD has made a bunch of Agents/players happy with big overpays

for Davis, Gallardo, Trumbo, Kim, and now Alvarez

When the dust settles I expect only Davis to supply any value at all with the rest being

money flushed down the John

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Perhaps Alvarez and Trumbo won’t see the field enough for the team to push into this kind of tier — they’d need to run a team strikeout rate above 23% to qualify for this bucket, most likely — and the Orioles will settle in as just a normal high-K team, not an extreme one, and maybe this won’t matter at all.

This is the key takeaway from the second article, at the end. If this was put up front in the article people wouldn't even bother reading it. The Orioles aren't going to be an extreme K team in the bucket that all the analysis was about, at 23+ K%. Last year they were 22.2%, and we're losing away alot of PAs from last year's team from the likes of:

De Aza: 112 PA, 30.4 K%

Paredes: 384 PA, 28.9 K%

Parmelee: 102 PA, 25.5 K%

Lough: 144 PA, 25.0 K%

Snider: 236 PA, 23.7 K%

Pearce: 325 PA: 21.2 K%

Cabrera: 105 PA, 21.0 K%

The only decent "contact" hitters we lost are Clevenger (105 PA, 12.4%), Parra (238 PA, 14.7%), and Young (180 PA, 16.1%)

Are Trumbo and Alvarez gonna add alot of K's? Sure. But Kim's addition should go a long way to balance that out, and the ABs they are replacing are from guys who ran pretty horrific K% last year anyway.

Our core players outside of Davis, Trumbo, and Alvarez are not high K types. Manny and Jones are actually pretty low K (15.6% and 17.6%, respectively). I expect Schoop to make some big strides in reducing his K% this year. Our primary depth options like D. Alvarez, Urrutia, and Hoes are not high K guys either. I think the K% problem is going to be blown out of proportion all year long.

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This is the key takeaway from the second article, at the end. If this was put up front in the article people wouldn't even bother reading it. The Orioles aren't going to be an extreme K team in the bucket that all the analysis was about, at 23+ K%. Last year they were 22.2%, and we're losing away alot of PAs from last year's team from the likes of:

De Aza: 112 PA, 30.4 K%

Paredes: 384 PA, 28.9 K%

Parmelee: 102 PA, 25.5 K%

Lough: 144 PA, 25.0 K%

Snider: 236 PA, 23.7 K%

Pearce: 325 PA: 21.2 K%

Cabrera: 105 PA, 21.0 K%

The only decent "contact" hitters we lost are Clevenger (105 PA, 12.4%), Parra (238 PA, 14.7%), and Young (180 PA, 16.1%)

Are Trumbo and Alvarez gonna add alot of K's? Sure. But Kim's addition should go a long way to balance that out, and the ABs they are replacing are from guys who ran pretty horrific K% last year anyway.

Our core players outside of Davis, Trumbo, and Alvarez are not high K types. Manny and Jones are actually pretty low K (15.6% and 17.6%, respectively). I expect Schoop to make some big strides in reducing his K% this year. Our primary depth options like D. Alvarez, Urrutia, and Hoes are not high K guys either. I think the K% problem is going to be blown out of proportion all year long.

Another way to look at this:

2015 DeAza, Paredes, Parmelee, Lough, Snider: 978 PA, 26.9 K%

2016 Projected Trumbo, Alvarez (FG Depth Charts): 1064 PA, 25.9 K%

The players Alvarez and Trumbo are directly replacing actually had a WORSE K rate last year than Trumbo and Alvarez are expected to have. This is a complete non-issue.

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and we pay 1/2 his salary

DD has made a bunch of Agents/players happy with big overpays

for Davis, Gallardo, Trumbo, Kim, and now Alvarez

When the dust settles I expect only Davis to supply any value at all with the rest being

money flushed down the John

I don't think you will be right. But then, most free agents are poor values.

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I think it's important that Alvarez does not see the light of day when lefties are on the mound.

I think Buck will play him where he sees the best benefit for the team. Wether it's

DH, LF, RF or 1st base. Buck has the teams best interest at heart. Wether I agree

with him or not. IMO

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