TT: The Orioles are a mediocre team

[SouthernBird]

Losing J.J. Hardy is a big reason for this slide. It was proven in their record last year, and will be so again this year.

The difference between Machado and Hardy or Machado and whoever is HUGE.

Nailed it right there folks...nailed it.

[OFFNY]

Which one of the two seven game win streaks?

If you take out both of them, the Orioles would be 14-22.

If you count them as losses instead of wins, the Orioles would be 14-36.

If Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira's respective batting averages were 100 points higher, they would both be having solid seasons for the Yankees.

[ORIOLE33]

Nailed it right there folks...nailed it.

That is a stretch. Lets not act as if JJ is some 280 avg, 20 plus HR bat. If JJ is the difference between being a contender and being a joke, then we are in some major trouble.

[weams]

That is a stretch. Lets not act as if JJ is some 280 avg, 20 plus HR bat. If JJ is the difference between being a contender and being a joke, then we are in some major trouble.

No, but he is a perfect shortstop.

[Tony-OH]

We're not at .500. We're over it. And in position to make the playoffs.

I don't understand why so many people try to make the first 7 games of the season not count.

What's a better indicator of your team, the last 43 games, or the seven games previous to that?

[Tony-OH]

I don't like the "last 43 games" argument. They've played 50 games and they all count. They've played poorly the last 9 games and so I could argue that they're at a low ebb.

Anyway, I would not be surprised if they fall within your 80-84 win prediction, but I also wouldn't be that surprised if they won 90+. The longer I've been a fan, the less confident I am in anyone's ability to forecast what will happen next to a baseball team. The O's are the type of team where a few subtle things could make a big difference in the W-L one way or the other. So I'll watch and see how things play out.

Sure, they all count, but what is a better indicator of your team? The last 43 games they played or the seven before that? Tonight they put a lot of hits and walks together to score, great. But, the team also got an awful starting performance from mike Wright. They must improve their rotation to have any chance of competing.

[SteveA]

What's a better indicator of your team, the last 43 games, or the seven games previous to that?

The largest sample size possible... all 50 games.

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[Tony-OH]

What... oh wait, I get it.

We're doomed, I can't disagree. May as well go ahead and forfeit the rest of our games in advance. That way our future opponents will just get the wins up front and will be better able to plan out the rest of their seasons.

Yeah, you really got the point there. Good job buddy. I clearly said we are doomed.

[Tony-OH]

The largest sample size possible... all 50 games.

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You are acting ridiculous. One of the most frustrating things about being a realist is dealing with all of you on here who are not. Yep, the last 44 games out of 51 of playing .500 baseball means nothing. If that makes you sleep well at night I'm happy for you.

Yep, the team that as gone 22-22 over it's last 44 games with a rotation that includes Wright and Ubaldo is certainly getting ready to make a World Series run. Yep, pay no attention to the last 44 games of .500 baseball, means nothing.

[brianod]

Ubaldo tomorrow. On other threads, I hear that Ubaldo is inconsistent but has a chance to throw a great game. If I was Buck, he wouldn't. He's given up 19 runs in his last 16 innings, losing all 4 of his last starts. You only allow a pitcher like that to start again if you are desperate, without any other options.

[brianod]

There aren't any good options.

Exactly. Thus, proving Tony's point of this thread. I'm fine with throwing Wright out their to get beat up and learn. At least he has good stuff. Ubaldo is a waste of time and energy at this point. He can't throw strikes and when he does, it gets hammered. That's a terrible combination...

[El Gordo]

I hope Ubaldo has a good game. He could he still has good stuff. I bet we win more than one more than we lose in June.

[El Gordo]

Exactly. Thus, proving Tony's point of this thread. I'm fine with throwing Wright out their to get beat up and learn. At least he has good stuff. Ubaldo is a waste of time and energy at this point. He can't throw strikes and when he does, it gets hammered. That's a terrible combination...

The problem with Wright is he thinks he has nothing to learn. And his stuff isn't better than Ubaldo's.

[Frobby]

You are acting ridiculous. One of the most frustrating things about being a realist is dealing with all of you on here who are not. Yep, the last 44 games out of 51 of playing .500 baseball means nothing. If that makes you sleep well at night I'm happy for you.

Yep, the team that as gone 22-22 over it's last 44 games with a rotation that includes Wright and Ubaldo is certainly getting ready to make a World Series run. Yep, pay no attention to the last 44 games of .500 baseball, means nothing.

Here's the problem with this logic: if the last 44 games are a better indicator than the full 51, then aren't the last 32 games a better indicator of where this team is heading than the last 44? Over the last 32, the O's are 18-14, which is a 91-71 pace. I mean, you can draw a line at whatever arbitrary spot suits your purpose to show the O's have played well, poorly or mediocre over the last X games. That's why I say they all count and the full sample is the most relevant data point you have.

I'm not saying there aren't good arguments for why you might think the O's will be mediocre going forward. I just don't like the "last 44 games" argument.

[MASNPalmer]

Even if the O's are a true .500 team (which it seems half of the AL is this year), at 7 games over they're on pace for an 84-85 win season. Which puts them right in the hunt come August/September...isn't that what any baseball fan wants from their team? It's hard to win 90 games. It's near impossible to win 100 games (especially this year in the AL). A playoff hunt come late summer will be great.

It's baseball. Everyone take a step back from the ledge. O's are flawed, yes. But they're fun to watch, the owner spent some cash to keep the core around, and they're right in the thick of it. To ask for anything more isn't being realistic.

Can you imagine this board if we were fans of the Padres? Or Angels? Or D-Backs? Franchises with little assets and already playing meaningless baseball? We have it pretty good and let's not forget--this team has the most wins of any AL team over the last few years.