BP: Baltimore's Annual Surprise Party

[Can_of_corn]

This makes no sense.

Gallardo we signed for 2y/22M. Chen was signed for 90M.

Chen has a 5.00 era in 15 starts so far this year. If we'd signed him instead wouldn't he be getting lumped in with the "paying too much for our own free agents" bin?

Also confusing how they're not aware that Reimold has been a effective (when healthy) role playing outfielder most of his career and his 105 wRC+ is basically in line with his career 102 mark.

I think often times people are too critical of PECOTA because they compare it to specific counter-examples, rather than the general predictive nature ability - but article's like this don't even make the right case for why projections can be reasonable and still wrong.

Because it would be expected that his numbers would be decreasing. He's older than Markakis.

[birrman54]

I agree. Though I think the point of the article was that the Orioles don't really have a "formula" other than adding value through late free agent additions.

The only consistent thing I see in the Orioles' roster-building is the willingness to make a LOT of small incremental improvements that eventually lead to a winning team.

This reminds me of something Bill James once said in an interview (but now I can't find it).

He talked about (in his opinion) the biggest thing holding back teams from making those kinds of Moneyball-esque improvements and tweaks is a fear of looking silly or foolish. There's an old quote about how nobody gets fired for buying IBM, and the same sort of rule applies to baseball decisions. If you do things basically by the 'book' you're usually pretty safe.

I think the O's are used to getting mocked and underestimated. When you've already embraced that your decisions are going to be second-guessed and derided then you can be more confident in taking risks, since you'll probably be criticized anyway.

[LookitsPuck]

Because it would be expected that his numbers would be decreasing. He's older than Markakis.

And has been pretty much hurt nearly every year of his career.

[birrman54]

Because it would be expected that his numbers would be decreasing. He's older than Markakis.

Sure, but those are generalizations not specific predictors for a single year. In general we can say that players over 31 get worse not better, but that doesn't mean Nelson Cruz seasons are impossible. Have they been running any articles on the David Ortiz miracle?

It's also June, so there's plenty of time for him to fall off. He's contributed under half a win, so I don't think that's the reason the Orioles are successful this season.

[Can_of_corn]

And has been pretty much hurt nearly every year of his career.

I just wanted to say he was older than Nick before Weams had a chance to.

I actually think the injury thing with Reimold is a bit overplayed. He had one very serious injury with a difficult recovery. You take that one admittedly big deal out of the equation and his track record isn't that bad.

[LookitsPuck]

Anyways, I think the O's "strategy" is really focusing on the bullpen and taking advantage of their home ballpark by signing bounceback candidates like Trumbo, Cruz and Alvarez. It's a heavy focus on homers.

So: bullpen, homers I think are dictated by Duquette

Buck is dictating defense as best as he can and making platoons where necessary

Outside of that? I don't see much (if any) strategy in regards to starting pitching outside of just signing run of the mill, mediocre arms that *might* go 5-6 IP and be around a 4-5 ERA. There certainly is little to no focus on building a farm system centered around impact starting pitchers for the future. It really looks like Duquette is using the farm as trade chips for the major league roster.

I'm beginning to wonder if Duquette is so gung-ho to trade from the minors because our developmental system is a mess and he can't make the appropriate changes to fix it. But we're going on 5 years under Duquette and our starting pitching has always been at the bottom (aside from 2014). This year is actually the worst it's ever been under Duquette.

I do wish we'd get rid of the archaic belief of not allowing prospects to throw cutters. And stop focusing so much on TTTP if it's at the detriment of the pitcher.

[LookitsPuck]

I just wanted to say he was older than Nick before Weams had a chance to.

I actually think the injury thing with Reimold is a bit overplayed. He had one very serious injury with a difficult recovery. You take that one admittedly big deal out of the equation and his track record isn't that bad.

No, but he's had a lot of nagging injuries. And nagging injuries have a way of sapping power/defense which ultimately gets you out of the lineup.

[Can_of_corn]

No, but he's had a lot of nagging injuries. And nagging injuries have a way of sapping power/defense which ultimately gets you out of the lineup.

Like I said, I think the issue is overplayed.

I don't get the idea of not playing someone so he can be healthy enough to continue not playing.

[LookitsPuck]

Like I said, I think the issue is overplayed.

I don't get the idea of not playing someone so he can be healthy enough to continue not playing.

2009 - Achilles, surgery

2010 - More Achilles rehab

2012 - herniated disc

2013 - corrective surgery from disc

2014 - calf issues

My point re: being out of the lineup...is if you're a defensive liability for Buck, chances are you're not going to play. Also, if your power is sapped, you're not going to play either. See: last year being DFA'd.

He finally looks healthy this year and has a very niche role.

[Can_of_corn]

2009 - Achilles, surgery

2010 - More Achilles rehab

2012 - herniated disc

2013 - corrective surgery from disc

2014 - calf issues

My point re: being out of the lineup...is if you're a defensive liability for Buck, chances are you're not going to play. Also, if your power is sapped, you're not going to play either. See: last year being DFA'd.

He finally looks healthy this year and has a very niche role.

Isn't it past time that we stop pretending that Buck particularly cares about outfield defense?

As for sapped power?

Markakis

Hardy

[LookitsPuck]

Isn't it past time that we stop pretending that Buck particularly cares about outfield defense?

As for sapped power?

Markakis

Hardy

He does care. His hands are tied. They have a roster of Jones, Kim, Reimold, Trumbo and Rickard. Not really a group of defensive wizards there. Also, it has more DH types in Alvarez that they need to get playing time for.

Markakis was the definition of steady when it came to oWAR. He didn't have much range in the OF, but he was a mainstay,...and Buck loves him some veterans.

RE: Hardy? The guy is a plus defender. And look at what has replaced him (Janish, Flaherty)...once again, hands tied.

[Can_of_corn]

He does care. His hands are tied. They have a roster of Jones, Kim, Reimold, Trumbo and Rickard. Not really a group of defensive wizards there. Also, it has more DH types in Alvarez that they need to get playing time for.

Markakis was the definition of steady when it came to oWAR. He didn't have much range in the OF, but he was a mainstay,...and Buck loves him some veterans.

RE: Hardy? The guy is a plus defender. And look at what has replaced him (Janish, Flaherty)...once again, hands tied.

He played Young in the outfield!

He played Flaherty in the outfield!

He played Cruz in the outfield!

His reputation outweighs the reality.

[TINSTAAPP]

It's amazing how people undervalue a great bullpen especially in today's game. Starters are throwing fewer innings while the number of innings thrown by relievers steadily go up every year. Teams like the Orioles and Royals win a lot of games by keeping the game within striking distance after five or six innings, shutting down the opposing team with their bullpen and having the offense chip away and eventually taking the lead in the late innings. The Yankees won four World Series in five years using this formula.

[CallMeBrooksie]

He played Young in the outfield!

He played Flaherty in the outfield!

He played Cruz in the outfield!

His reputation outweighs the reality.

Buck has some input, but he ultimately isn't the one assembling the roster.

All Managers have to make compromises on defense and offense every night based on the task at hand. To say he doesn't care about outfield defense is pretty silly. He does.

If we had a roster full of guys who were perfectly balanced players and required no offense to defense trade-offs, then that'd be awesome. Let me know when you find that team.

[ChuckS]

We have a lot of good players in the prime of their careers.

I think that is the recipe of success. Have as many good players aged 26-32 as possible.

It also doesn't hurt to have Manny Machado and Jon Schoop playing like All-Stars and yet to have hit their prime.

In our down years we always seemed to carry a lot of has beens and never weres.