WITF: Gambler Fallacy

[weams]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/how-gamblers-fallacy-affects-your-decision-making/

Turning to baseball, the researchers analyzed major league umpires. They examined 1.5 million called pitches when the batter did not swing between 2008 and 2012. They controlled for a wide array of factors, such as pitch count, pitch spin and acceleration, the relative importance of the at bat to the outcome of the game and whether the batter was on the home team. They relied on data compiled by the PITCHf/x system, which tracks the speed and trajectories of pitches in every major league stadium.

gamblers

They found that umpires were 1.5 percentage points less likely to call a strike if the previous pitch was a called strike. The bias toward an opposite call was also significantly more pronounced when the previous two calls were the same.

Do umpires use subsequent calls to make up for calls they regret? The researchers found that, if anything, umpires were less likely to make an opposite call following an incorrect call than after a correct one. They concluded that, "[F]airness concerns and a desire to be equally nice to two opposing teams are unlikely to explain our results."

[Can_of_corn]

Yep and the strike zone expands on a 3-0 count and shrinks on an 0-2 count.

[LookitsPuck]

Yep and the strike zone expands on a 3-0 count and shrinks on an 0-2 count.

And changes in extra innings.

I think the sport really needs an automated strike zone.

[Can_of_corn]

And changes in extra innings.

I think the sport really needs an automated strike zone.

If they can track the spin rate out of the pitcher's hand and the exit velocity off the bat they can figure out the strike zone.

[Phantom]

If they can track the spin rate out of the pitcher's hand and the exit velocity off the bat they can figure out the strike zone.

They already have.

[Can_of_corn]

They already have.

Of course they have.

So let's do this.

Test it in the AFL debut it in spring training.

Done.

[Phantom]

With this commissioner, we actually have a chance. The problem is, we have a bunch of individuals that are going to be REALLY against it, and not that many people who are passionately for it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course they have.

So let's do this.

Test it in the AFL debut it in spring training.

Done.

But what of the revenues generated by fans who only see the game as a human morality play, pitching players' and managers' raw emotion and mental frailty against the flawed abilities, corruptible values, and petty vengeances of the arbiters of the sport? All wiped away by meddlesome black-and-white machines.

[Can_of_corn]

But what of the revenues generated by fans who only see the game as a human morality play, pitching players' and managers' raw emotion and mental frailty against the flawed abilities, corruptible values, and petty vengeances of the arbiters of the sport? All wiped away by meddlesome black-and-white machines.

Paint them pink.

Bam, human element.