Jump to content

The Defensive Regression


Grt 2BA FL Gator

Recommended Posts

I was reading an ESPN article and the author stated that our defense has been below average "as expected". I understood that with Trumbo/Kim we would regress a good amount defensively, but to go from one of the game's best to now below average, what else is at play?

Do we think Hardy's health should bolster its consistency in the second half? Has Jones regressed? Just curious here. I'd expect our infield to be one of the best in the majors..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 32
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Without looking it up, I would say the following are contributors:

* Slight Hardy and Jones regression

* Hardy not being healthy

* The outfield. (Trumbo has been well below average IMO, Kim has been decent, Rickard has been both good and bad).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was reading an ESPN article and the author stated that our defense has been below average "as expected". I understood that with Trumbo/Kim we would regress a good amount defensively, but to go from one of the game's best to now below average, what else is at play?

We were the 15th best defense in the MLB last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This regression has been happening over the last 2 seasons, not just this one. The entire outfield has been bad this year, and that's the biggest drag. Hardy being hurt and Flaherty not as effective, Alvarez getting some starts on defense and Schoop (while still solidly average) taking steps back from his rookie season have also contributed.

By and large, it's the outfield. Every guy who has played regularly has been bad this season according to the metrics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per UZR, the infield is +8.6, while the outfield is -21.7.

Jones -7.6

Rickard -7.5

Trumbo -3.8

Kim -1.8

Reimold -1.4

Flaherty +0.4 (LOL, the one guy who doesn't play the OF regularly)

I don't necessarily buy into all those, but the overall number for the group makes sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per UZR, the infield is +8.6, while the outfield is -21.7.

Jones -7.6

Rickard -7.5

Trumbo -3.8

Kim -1.8

Reimold -1.4

Flaherty +0.4 (LOL, the one guy who doesn't play the OF regularly)

I don't necessarily buy into all those, but the overall number for the group makes sense to me.

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

Yeah that's not how statistics work though, especially in small samples.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

Jones is being graded as a center fielder and Trumbo is being graded as a right fielder.

I will say to my eyes Jones is better in center than Trumbo is in right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How could anyone in their right mind think Trumbo is a better defensive OF than AJ. Maybe they are all below average but that's ridiculous.

For one thing, it's compared to other people at your position. A below overage CF will have a lower UZR than an average corner OF. But aside from that, I'd certainly say Jones is better in CF than Trumbo is in RF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For one thing, it's compared to other people at your position. A below overage CF will have a lower UZR than an average corner OF. But aside from that, I'd certainly say Jones is better in CF than Trumbo is in RF.
So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.

That's what UZR is saying -- and that's why you can only trust defensive metrics so far. I suppose it is possible that since CF have many more potential chances, it's easier to rack up a higher or lower than average number. E.g., let's say Jones only gets to 90% of the balls that an average CF would reach, and Trumbo only gets to 90% of the balls that an average RF would reach, but twice as many balls go to CF than to RF. In that case, Jones' negative UZR will be twice what Trumbo's is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Trumbo is a better RF than AJ is a CF? Still hard to believe.

All the statistic says is that AJ has turned more outs into hits compared to the rest of the leagues CFs than Trumbbo has compared to the rest of the leagues RFs so far this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thing about Jones is he's lost a step...and he plays pretty far in. Balls that are hit over your hit are pretty hard to track down compared to coming in on balls.

The defensive regression isn't a surprise. When you're running guys like Rickard, Kim, Trumbo out in the field with regularity and you were missing Hardy for an extended period of time...this should surprise nobody. And Schoop seems to be off/on this year. Wasn't never a believer in his range, but his arm and glove is special.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All the statistic says is that AJ has turned more outs into hits compared to the rest of the leagues CFs than Trumbbo has compared to the rest of the leagues RFs so far this season.

Yes, but that seems a little hard to believe based on the eye test.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • When he first came up, his slider was very mediocre and only really used as a get me over change of pace. Now it seems like a weapon. I wonder if he went to school with Professor Bradish for that.
    • Yeah, kinda why I asked the question. That seems real lofty for a comparison.
    • After a really disappointing April that saw his ERA balloon to 7.78, Alex Pham has found his bearings in May, allowing 3 ER in 14.1 IP, allowing 8 hits and 4 walks while striking out 17.   Yesterday Pham allowed a run on 2 hits and a walk in 4.2 innings, striking out 7.   53 of 72 pitches were strikes.  The sole run charged to Pham scored when reliever Kyle Virbitsky allowed a 2-out double to the first batter he faced after relieving Pham in the fifth.    Due to the poor start, Pham’s ERA still rests at an unimpressive 5.29, but he’s definitely been headed in the right direction.  Also, he’s struck out 40 batters in 34 innings.     
    • I can’t emphasize enough how stupid that rain delay was.  No rain at all for 45 minutes, then two hours of light mist, the kind that teams play through all the time.  I was standing near the kids play area during most of the delay and believe me, that rain didn’t deter any kids from using the playground equipment for two hours. Then, 15 minutes before the game is going to start, the grounds crew is watering the infield.  What? The game itself was not worth the wait, needless to say.   But what annoys me most is the complete lack of communication during these delays.  How about letting the fans who are there know what the thinking is about how long the delay will be?  How about an update every 30 minutes or so.   Nope, nothing.   Just a generic message on the scoreboard saying that the start of the game will be delayed to to the “threat” of inclement weather.   My phone was showing .05” of rain expected in the next six hours.  Some threat! On the bright side, the team did announce that ticket holders would be given vouchers that could be used for a Monday - Thursday game.  That was the least they could do.       
    • 19,286 for that rain-delayed mess of a game.  I’d say about 2/3 of those stuck through the 3 hour delay and were in their seats at game time.  
    • And paid Scherzer, and Zimmerman, and Corbin, and Werth.   They didn’t all work out, but nobody could say the Nats didn’t spend to put a winning team on the field during their run.  The run basically ended because Stras II and Corbin blew up in their face.   But there’s always 2019.   
    • I can’t believe that 8 hours after Grayson stepped off the mound, I’m the first person to update his thread.   After a 19-day IL stint and without a rehab stint, Grayson threw 6 innings of one-hit shutout ball last night.  The one hit was an infield squibber hit 59.5 mph off the bat.  His command was a tad shaky at times, as he walked three and hit a batter, but he still breezed through 6 innings on 82 pitches, 50 for strikes.  If it hadn’t been his first outing in three weeks, he certainly could have pitched the 7th inning.  Unfortunately, the bullpen blew it for him. Fastball topped out at 98.4 and he was still hitting 97 in his final inning.  
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...