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The highest WPA Oriole hits of 2016

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Got to wondering about this after reading a discussion of game-winning hits in another thread. Which hits had the greatest impact in terms of increases our chances of winning the game? Here's a short list, according to Win Probability Added, which measures the odds of winning the game after the hit compared to the odds before the hit.

.795 -- Down 1-0 with 2 outs and 2 on in the 9th, Matt Wieters hit a 3-run dinger to put the O's ahead 3-1 in the top of the 9th in Anaheim on May 21.

.777 -- Down 7-5 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, Jonathan Schoop hits a 3-run homer to give the O's an 8-7 lead against the Giants on August 14.

.597 -- Down 2-1 with a runner on 2B and one out in the top of the 9th, Hyun Soo Kim hit a two-run homer to give the Orioles a 3-2 lead over Toronto on September 28.

.576 -- Down 1-0 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th against the Yankees on June 5, Matt Wieters hit a bases-loaded single off Aroldis Chapman. An outfield error on the play allowed all three runs to score and Wieters ended up at 3B, with the O's taking a 3-1 lead.

.484 -- Tied 6-6 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th, Chris Davis hits a 3-run homer off Craig Kimbrell to give the O's a 9-6 lead on April 11.

.451 -- Tied 4-4 with 2 outs in the top of the 14th inning, Jonathan Schoop hits a 2-run double to give the O's a 6-4 lead on July 6.

.437 -- Down 2-1 in the bottom 9th, Matt Wieters hit a game-tying solo homer leading off the 9th against the Diamondbacks on Sept. 23.

.422 -- Down 7-5 with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 8th, Chris Davis hits a 2-run double to tie the game at 7-7 on April 30.

.410 -- Tied 3-3 in the top of the 9th, Adam Jones hits a 2-run single to give the O's a 5-3 lead against the Twins on May 10.

.392 -- Tied 3-3 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, Nolan Reimold hits a 2-run walk-off homer against the Indians on July 24.

.378 -- Tied 3-3 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, Matt Wieters hit a two run homer off Jason Grilli to give the O's a 5-3 lead on August 30.

.362 -- In a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, Matt Wieters hits a walk-off single on Opening Day.

.362 -- In a tie game in the 12th inning, Mark Trumbo hits a walk-off homer on Sept. 23.

Interesting to see that Matt Wieters has five of the top thirteen, including the highest WPA hit of the year. It's also interesting to note that only 3 of the 11 hits were walk-offs. Also, two of the top 13 were in the same game -- Wieters' and Trumbo's homers last Friday night against the DBacks.

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O-Arm36 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

O-Arm36

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I think it's interesting that Matt's HR vs the Angels had a higher WPA than Jon's HR in SF. They were both extremely great, but Matt could've tied the game with a single and Jon needed to hit at least extra bases to tie the game, which makes me think that Jon's was a bigger swing.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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I think it's interesting that Matt's HR vs the Angels had a higher WPA than Jon's HR in SF. They were both extremely great, but Matt could've tied the game with a single and Jon needed to hit at least extra bases to tie the game, which makes me think that Jon's was a bigger swing.

Matt's HR put the O's up by two, Jon's put the O's up by one.

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