The October Clutch Gene

[JR Oriole]

As Conor Gillaspie (an absolute no-name) ran the bases after hitting a 3-run ninth inning homer for the Giants to break a tie, my first feeling was jealousy. How the hell do these mediocre offensive players for the Giants come through with huge hits every October (of an even year of course) while our "core" guys always come up so damn small in the clutch? So this dude can hit a homer off an actual stud reliever on the road while none of our guys can hit anything off of the Jays' weak relievers?

Someone posted the postseason batting averages of the core guys in our lineup and they were abysmal...and if you look up the on-base and slugging % numbers, they are equally awful. I get that Mad Bum is going to the HOF, but these Giants rosters that have won championships every other year are not great rosters. They just have people who come through when it matters, whereas all of our hitters shrink in the moment. All of them. So depressing.

[hendu]

I don't care enough to look, but the announcing team kept referring to how impressive Thor's swing and miss rate was last night particularly given the Giants propensity to not strikeout.

Wait for your pitch and hit it. Pretty simple approach. Even Manny, who in the first half seemed to follow this, decided to start swinging at anything that would start anywhere near the zone. It's what made Hyun Soo's HR even more impressive...foul off or take pitches that he wasn't going to hammer. Crush in his efforts to show that he still could get on base with a nice OBP couldn't recognize a strike to save his life the past month with his nice backward Ks. I guess that it's easy to start free swinging when you see your lead off hitter hacking at the first pitch. When you're that talented, it's easy to say, "Yes, this first pitch slider on the outside corner is my pitch, cause I have the ability to hit it. I'll be damned if the next pitch might be one that catches too much of the plate."

[sportsfan8703]

It's in another thread, but our core has terrible OPS's in the playoffs. Davis has down years when we play the best. 12', 14', 16'. Safe to say we have a bunch of non clutch playoff types. Remember, you're not clutch until you are. Our hitters have earned the not clutch label.

[Aristotelian]

It's in another thread, but our core has terrible OPS's in the playoffs. Davis has down years when we play the best. 12', 14', 16'. Safe to say we have a bunch of non clutch playoff types. Remember, you're not clutch until you are. Our hitters have earned the not clutch label.

Makes you want to bring back Delmon Young?

[sportsfan8703]

Makes you want to bring back Delmon Young?

Overweight and high on PCP he would have been a better pinch hit option than Drew freaking Stubbs.

[pastorfan]

Overweight and high on PCP he would have been a better pinch hit option than Drew freaking Stubbs.

Maybe Mancini is that guy, but we won't know since Nolan got to hit. Nolan did a nice job taking strike one and then swinging at two down and away. But he made up for that with his stellar defense the next half inning.

[JR Oriole]

Delmon was a guy who had a lot of success in the postseason before he was with us. I think one of the keys to October is being successful in your first go-around. So many of these Giants players have no idea what it feels like to fall short and lose a postseason series...so they carry no baggage with them when they get to October. Bumgarner is in no way the best pitcher I have ever seen in terms of his stuff or even his location....its just that the dude is absolutely fearless and both he and the hitters he faces believe there is no chance he can be beat in the playoffs.

I will be interested to see how Price pitches for the Red Sox this month. Cleveland is such a weak team at this point with their injuries that the Red Sox should sweep them pretty easily. But if Price has to face Toronto or Texas (a team that has owned him in October), will he be able to psychologically get past all of his failures of the past.

[Spy Fox]

The October Clutch Gene doesn't exist. Well, let me rephrase. I think the October Clutch Gene might exist, but that most of the times you think you see it, or see its opposite, you're probably wrong.

The mental side of baseball is important, so I don't like to discount Clutch Genes as 100% false. But I am sure that it is exaggerated by a large number of fans. The playoffs are very similar to the season, just more random. So if you think somebody is by identity Clutch or Unclutch in October you better have some specific personal insight into that person's mind if you want to prove it, because the stats of a few series won't prove it just like a few series won't prove that 2015 Jimmy Paredes is the next great Orioles slugger. I would guess by the time you get to MLB, most of the players who truly can't handle pressure have probably been weeded out. The sample size of the playoffs simply isn't large enough to prove that performance is the result of "clutchness" and not just the result of the fact that this player happened to succeed or not succeed on this particular occasion.

So, the reason we don't seem to have the October Clutch Gene is simply because we've only played 14 playoff games this century and it hasn't happened to show up as often as we'd like it to.

[Orioles4Life21]

I don't care enough to look, but the announcing team kept referring to how impressive Thor's swing and miss rate was last night particularly given the Giants propensity to not strikeout.

Wait for your pitch and hit it. Pretty simple approach. Even Manny, who in the first half seemed to follow this, decided to start swinging at anything that would start anywhere near the zone. It's what made Hyun Soo's HR even more impressive...foul off or take pitches that he wasn't going to hammer. Crush in his efforts to show that he still could get on base with a nice OBP couldn't recognize a strike to save his life the past month with his nice backward Ks. I guess that it's easy to start free swinging when you see your lead off hitter hacking at the first pitch. When you're that talented, it's easy to say, "Yes, this first pitch slider on the outside corner is my pitch, cause I have the ability to hit it. I'll be damned if the next pitch might be one that catches too much of the plate."

This has been my issue with our guys. Sometimes it seems like they don't realize that it's okay to take a strike. You get three at this level. On 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1, you need to be looking for one pitch in one spot. If you don't get it, don't swing. It sounds so simple, but a lot of the times our guys are swinging at pitches near the corner in those counts. Be aggressive, but be selectively aggressive.

[JR Oriole]

The October Clutch Gene doesn't exist. Well, let me rephrase. I think the October Clutch Gene might exist, but that most of the times you think you see it, or see its opposite, you're probably wrong.

The mental side of baseball is important, so I don't like to discount Clutch Genes as 100% false. But I am sure that it is exaggerated by a large number of fans. The playoffs are very similar to the season, just more random. So if you think somebody is by identity Clutch or Unclutch in October you better have some specific personal insight into that person's mind if you want to prove it, because the stats of a few series won't prove it just like a few series won't prove that 2015 Jimmy Paredes is the next great Orioles slugger. I would guess by the time you get to MLB, most of the players who truly can't handle pressure have probably been weeded out. The sample size of the playoffs simply isn't large enough to prove that performance is the result of "clutchness" and not just the result of the fact that this player happened to succeed or not succeed on this particular occasion.

So, the reason we don't seem to have the October Clutch Gene is simply because we've only played 14 playoff games this century and it hasn't happened to show up as often as we'd like it to.

This is a very good argument. I do wonder though how much early success (or lack thereof) in a player's playoff career impacts later opportunities. For example, if you have a guy who comes up big in his first few opportunities, then he may develop more confidence that he can handle these moments and that results in even more success down the road. Whereas some of our guys who were not successful early may start to have some doubt....or they end up trying even harder to make up for earlier failures that they end up playing even worse. I think the mental aspect of the game is huge and one of the reasons I love sports. I am anxious to see how David Price pitches today. This is an important game for the Red Sox and if his offense doesn't gift wrap him 3-5 runs early, how will he perform.....knowing his track record in the postseason is awful?

[Phantom]

This is a very good argument. I do wonder though how much early success (or lack thereof) in a player's playoff career impacts later opportunities. For example, if you have a guy who comes up big in his first few opportunities, then he may develop more confidence that he can handle these moments and that results in even more success down the road. Whereas some of our guys who were not successful early may start to have some doubt....or they end up trying even harder to make up for earlier failures that they end up playing even worse. I think the mental aspect of the game is huge and one of the reasons I love sports. I am anxious to see how David Price pitches today. This is an important game for the Red Sox and if his offense doesn't gift wrap him 3-5 runs early, how will he perform.....knowing his track record in the postseason is awful?

This is demonstrably false, both anecdotally and statistically. Remember when Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Albert Pujols were all playoff chokers?

[JR Oriole]

This is demonstrably false, both anecdotally and statistically. Remember when Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Albert Pujols were all playoff chokers?

I sure do....and I loved watching those guys finally redeem themselves with big time performances later on (well, except Clemens who is a dirtbag). I wish I had more confidence in a guy like Jones turning it around the next time he is in the postseason, but his refusal to adapt his hitting approach at all makes me think he will always just flail away at the same low and outside sinker he always has.

[Phantom]

I sure do....

If you flip a coin and it comes up three tails in a row and then three heads in a row, do you assume that you did something to fix it three flips in, or maybe that judging the coin after such a small sample of flips was foolish?

[JR Oriole]

If you flip a coin and it comes up three tails in a row and then three heads in a row, do you assume that you did something to fix it three flips in, or maybe that judging the coin after such a small sample of flips was foolish?

I get it, but in sports you are judged based on how you perform on the field. Fair or unfair, you have a window of time and opportunity where if you come through you are a hero for life and if you fail, you are regarded as a choker or someone who couldn't handle the pressure. As fans, we all want a title. That is the ultimate goal and you never know when and if you will get one before your time is up. As a player, you have even less time. The O's core has only been to the playoffs 3 times, which is a relatively small sample. But sometimes that is all you get, and if you can't take advantage of your chances when you have them, then it sucks for you and the fans of your team. I understand that the pitchers facing our hitters in the playoffs have a job to do as well. But at some point, I really want to see our hitters doing their job and the opposing pitchers failing to do theirs...like Texas' pitchers are doing now..

[Phantom]

I get it, but in sports you are judged based on how you perform on the field. Fair or unfair, you have a window of time and opportunity where if you come through you are a hero for life and if you fail, you are regarded as a choker or someone who couldn't handle the pressure. As fans, we all want a title. That is the ultimate goal and you never know when and if you will get one before your time is up. As a player, you have even less time. The O's core has only been to the playoffs 3 times, which is a relatively small sample. But sometimes that is all you get, and if you can't take advantage of your chances when you have them, then it sucks for you and the fans of your team. I understand that the pitchers facing our hitters in the playoffs have a job to do as well. But at some point, I really want to see our hitters doing their job and the opposing pitchers failing to do theirs...like Texas' pitchers are doing now..

I appreciate that you see the problems with SSS judgement, but then you seem to justify it anyway. The world is not fixed. Logic has already changed views of things like Wins or Innings Pitched or Batting Average. There is nothing about our hitters that would make them play below their skill level in the playoffs going forward. They aren't chokers. There is no evidence that they are, because anyone drawing conclusions based on 20 games of baseball would draw all the wrong conclusions.

I get that it's frustrating to see us come up short. Let's just not let losing lead us into the grasp of bad logic. We've flipped the coins a few times and gotten bad results. Let's not blame the coin. Baseball is a game of failure.