Update: O's sign Trumbo to 3yr/$37 mil deal

[25 Nuggets]

13 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Brandon Moss just agreed to a 2/12 deal with the Royals.  Very similar offensive profile to Trumbo and better defensively in RF according to the metrics.  Trumbo hits for a slightly better average but Moss gets on a base a little more.  He hits from the left side but has a history of hitting lefties fairly well, so not a strict platoon guy.  Could have been your RF versus LHP and DH versus RHP.   

Would you rather of had Moss at 2/12 or Trumbo at 3/37?

I think the choice is an easy one and we made the wrong decision, although I will concede that Moss is two years older.  

Good question.

I wouldn't want either in RF so that is a moot point.

I like the three years of control better than the two but obviously not the roughly x2 AAV.

• wRC+
  • Moss - 110 career, 105 last year, 102 steamer prediction
  • Trumbo - 111 career, 123 last year, 113 steamer prediction

Two things are in favor of Trumbo here.  First, I believe that he has found something that will aid his HR totals for a few years, and therefore I believe he will outperform his projections under his current contract (provided health of course).  Even if both players hit their projections, Trumbo outperforms Moss by a good margin.

Second, Trumbo is a right handed hitter for a team that doesn't hit well vs LHP.  Last season was an anomaly for him in this regard (932 OPS vs RHP / 608 vs LHP) and I wonder if the inability for this team to hit LHP is contagious.  But career-wise he has more normal splits (772 vs 787).  Moss being a lefty doesn't help here (791 vs 712).  The Seth Smith trade, not the Trumbo signing made Moss less desirable.

Signs point to Trumbo being the superior hitter in 2017.  Even money, I take Trumbo all day.  But at twice the AAV?  That entirely depends on if the extra money would be invested wisely.  I would take Moss + something nice + a draft pick over Trumbo, but not Moss over Trumbo alone.  I'm comfortable with the Trumbo deal and for me the argument is really Trumbo vs a dirt cheap Trey Mancini + a draft pick.

[webbrick2010]

Trumbo signing was a mistake.... just like Hardy, O'day, and Davis

Replacing Alvarez with Smith and Weiters with Castillo, probably makes the 2017 offense a little worse than 2016, and once again no money was invested towards keeping the young core, or bringing in a legitimate starting pitcher. Trumbo hitting 35 Hrs with an OBP of .300 and no defensive value is not worth 3/37.5.... and oh yeah no one else in the majors was going to offer him that much.

[PaulFolk]

20 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Trumbo signing was a mistake.... just like Hardy, O'day, and Davis

Replacing Alvarez with Smith and Weiters with Castillo, probably makes the 2017 offense a little worse than 2016, and once again no money was invested towards keeping the young core, or bringing in a legitimate starting pitcher. Trumbo hitting 35 Hrs with an OBP of .300 and no defensive value is not worth 3/37.5.... and oh yeah no one else in the majors was going to offer him that much.

Isn't that how free agency works, pretty much by definition? 90% of the time, when a free agent signs with a team, it's because nobody else in the majors was offering him as much. By that logic, every free agent signing ever made, by any team, is an overpay.

[Redskins Rick]

On 1/20/2017 at 2:43 PM, Ruzious said:

It's certainly a better price than they paid for Davis, but again... Duquette's throwing away a chance for a free draft pick.  It's almost like he wants to set up the organization for failure when he leaves.  

I think its only a draft pick, if another team had signed Trumbo.

I suspect if another team was willing to spend the money and the pick, they would have done so by now.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think its only a draft pick, if another team had signed Trumbo.

I suspect if another team was willing to spend the money and the pick, they would have done so by now.

There have been lots of guys who cost a pick who weren't signed until February.   Ubaldo and Gallardo were two of them, and there have been a number of others.    So I don't think it's that likely that no team would have given up its pick.   It would have depended on how obstinate Trumbo and his agent were in negotiations.

[webbrick2010]

19 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

Isn't that how free agency works, pretty much by definition? 90% of the time, when a free agent signs with a team, it's because nobody else in the majors was offering him as much. By that logic, every free agent signing ever made, by any team, is an overpay.

Assuming no one else made an offer (which seems to be the case), maybe go with a 2/20 and an option

Really I think there was a good chance of him sitting out until June.... he's just not very valuable... a complete one trick pony with only a couple "good" years in his entire career. We overpaid for a guy coming off what will be his best year ever. It was just dumb

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Trumbo signing was a mistake.... just like Hardy, O'day, and Davis

Replacing Alvarez with Smith and Weiters with Castillo, probably makes the 2017 offense a little worse than 2016, and once again no money was invested towards keeping the young core, or bringing in a legitimate starting pitcher. Trumbo hitting 35 Hrs with an OBP of .300 and no defensive value is not worth 3/37.5.... and oh yeah no one else in the majors was going to offer him that much.

When making a statement like this, I would prefer that you give a source OR state that it is just YOUR OPINION.

In my opinion, signing Mark Trumbo to the deal he received was not a budget buster or deterrent to signing any of the upcoming Free Agents.  I look it as an example of the Orioles trying to keep a winning team together and to show the players such as Tillman, Britton, Machado and Schoop that there is a chance that they could be compensated when they reach free agency.

[terps19]

40 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Assuming no one else made an offer (which seems to be the case), maybe go with a 2/20 and an option

Really I think there was a good chance of him sitting out until June.... he's just not very valuable... a complete one trick pony with only a couple "good" years in his entire career. We overpaid for a guy coming off what will be his best year ever. It was just dumb

Can I borrow your crystal ball for a minute please?  I want to know if I will get a shot with Jennifer Aniston before I die.

Playing in Baltimore he has a chance to repeat his numbers each of the next 3 years.   

[Frobby]

I know I will get scoffed at in some quarters about this, but team chemistry is important.   I went to Fanfest this weekend and a couple of things struck me:

1.   It is very obvious that Darren O'Day is The Man in the Orioles bullpen.    All the other relievers look up to him, and he mentors them and sets the tone out there.   I've now watched the bullpen panel at Fanfest in four of the five years since O'Day established himself here, and the way the other pitchers interact with him, it's just clear he's the leader.   He's feeling healthy and hopefully will have a great year, but in any event there was more to re-signing him than just his on-field performance (which obviously is still the most important thing).

2.   The players are extremely happy that Trumbo is back.  

3.   Buck made a point of saying that in his ST motivational video for this year, he has clips of Jones, Hardy, Davis and Trumbo at their press conferences announcing their extensions, all saying how important the clubhouse atmosphere was to their decision to extend.    And obviously Buck thinks that's a message he wants all his players to absorb.

Now, I am not naive.   I don't think you can extend every veteran just because he's well-liked in the clubhouse, and lots of times players will like their new teammates just as well as the ones who left, and maybe better.   And of course you have to look first at likely performance as the player ages, what the team needs, the cost (both dollars and picks), etc.    But I don't dismiss the chemistry aspects, either.    And frankly, it's enjoyable to root for a team that has some continuity and cohesion.   I don't agree with every move the O's have made, and I do worry about the post-2018 fate of the club.   In the meantime, these are my Birds and I love rooting for them.

 

[ELMERO]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know I will get scoffed at in some quarters about this, but team chemistry is important.   I went to Fanfest this weekend and a couple of things struck me:

1.   It is very obvious that Darren O'Day is The Man in the Orioles bullpen.    All the other relievers look up to him, and he mentors them and sets the tone out there.   I've now watched the bullpen panel at Fanfest in four of the five years since O'Day established himself here, and the way the other pitchers interact with him, it's just clear he's the leader.   He's feeling healthy and hopefully will have a great year, but in any event there was more to re-signing him than just his on-field performance (which obviously is still the most important thing).

2.   The players are extremely happy that Trumbo is back.  

3.   Buck made a point of saying that in his ST motivational video for this year, he has clips of Jones, Hardy, Davis and Trumbo at their press conferences announcing their extensions, all saying how important the clubhouse atmosphere was to their decision to extend.    And obviously Buck thinks that's a message he wants all his players to absorb.

Now, I am not naive.   I don't think you can extend every veteran just because he's well-liked in the clubhouse, and lots of times players will like their new teammates just as well as the ones who left, and maybe better.   And of course you have to look first at likely performance as the player ages, what the team needs, the cost (both dollars and picks), etc.    But I don't dismiss the chemistry aspects, either.    And frankly, it's enjoyable to root for a team that has some continuity and cohesion.   I don't agree with every move the O's have made, and I do worry about the post-2018 fate of the club.   In the meantime, these are my Birds and I love rooting for them.

 

You, Frobby, are like the O'Day of this board, in my eyes. I have looked forward to and absorbed all your posts.  This one should go down as one of your best.  I, for one, needed to hear this.  It makes all the sense in the world and emphasizes the humanity of the team.  High morale is essential to the success of any working unit.  Bravo, Frobby!

[25 Nuggets]

I still remember the video showing the teammates that went to the Nelson Cruz press conference.  The genuine looks of surprise and intrigue on their faces.  The Jimenez (yes) and Cruz FA signings changed people's perceptions of the Orioles being an undesirable franchise to play for.

[OFFNY]

o

 

Trumbo on Spring Training Struggles, and Getting WBC Players Back

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/03/mark-trumbo-on-spring-struggles-and-getting-wbc-players-back.html

 

 

[OFFNY]

o

 

A Look at a Big Outlier among Mark Trumbo’s 2016 Stats

(By Steve Melewski)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/03/a-look-at-a-big-outlier-among-mark-trumbos-2016-stats.html

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

A Look at a Big Outlier among Mark Trumbo’s 2016 Stats

(By Steve Melewski)

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/03/a-look-at-a-big-outlier-among-mark-trumbos-2016-stats.html

 

o

Since when does Steve use terms like outlier?

Has he been reading?