Would trading Mancini be the best option now?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Frank was worth 34 wins from 25-29, and despite that triple crown just 29 wins from 30-34.  And he's an inner circle HOFer.

I know you know this, but in 1967 Frank suffered a very serious concussion that dramatically affected his vision in the rest of 1967 (age 31) and 1968 (age 32), and Frank has said that even though he recovered significantly after that, his vision was never quite the same again.   That injury was unrelated to his age.   

Still, I'm certainly not denying that in general, ages 25-29 are more productive than 30-34.    

[FanSince88]

I wouldn't be so quick to trade Mancini.  

I think he still has a very important role on a team that has historically struggled mightily against LHP.  If either Davis or Trumbo struggle against lefties in the next 3 years, I hope Buck isn't shy about platooning them with Mancini.  Or, if one of them is injured, Mancini should be a more than capable replacement.  Or, if we're willing to tolerate bad left field defense, we can put Trumbo in RF with Mancini at DH.  

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I wouldn't be so quick to trade Mancini.  

I think he still has a very important role on a team that has historically struggled mightily against LHP. 

If by "historically," you mean the last two years, fine.   We hit LHP slightly better than RHP in 2012 and 2014 and were fairly close in 2013.   Personally, I think last year was a bit fluky.   Also, Castillo mashes lefties.  

[Aristotelian]

29 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

I wouldn't be so quick to trade Mancini.  

I think he still has a very important role on a team that has historically struggled mightily against LHP.  If either Davis or Trumbo struggle against lefties in the next 3 years, I hope Buck isn't shy about platooning them with Mancini.  Or, if one of them is injured, Mancini should be a more than capable replacement.  Or, if we're willing to tolerate bad left field defense, we can put Trumbo in RF with Mancini at DH.  

The biggest contribution he could make is by tearing it up at AAA and getting traded for a decent return. DH against LH pitchers when you have Trumbo just makes no sense. Against LHP I would rather have Dariel Alvarez in RF with Trumbo DH than Trumbo RF with Mancini DH. And we can probably do better than Alvarez.

[tntoriole]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The biggest contribution he could make is by tearing it up at AAA and getting traded for a decent return. DH against LH pitchers when you have Trumbo just makes no sense. Against LHP I would rather have Dariel Alvarez in RF with Trumbo DH than Trumbo RF with Mancini DH. And we can probably do better than Alvarez.

And using Trey at 24 years old as a part time DH only against left-handers and never playing in the field is just dumb.   I mean really dumb.  I hope he hits .500 in the spring and gets traded to a team that can use his talents.  But we will regret this one (we talk about all the pitchers that we traded, etc., but this one will really sting down the road. 

[Dark Helmet]

How about Mancini to the Pirates for Josh Harrison? Harrison had a down year, but can play multiple IF positions and the OF. Brings speed and versatility to the team. He can play 3B and Manny at SS when Hardy makes his annual trio to the DL.

[ArtVanDelay]

3 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

How about Mancini to the Pirates for Josh Harrison? Harrison had a down year, but can play multiple IF positions and the OF. Brings speed and versatility to the team. He can play 3B and Manny at SS when Hardy makes his annual trio to the DL.

Lol why would the Pirates make that trade? Harrison is a solid player with 4 years left and they already have their 1st baseman of the future in Josh Bell. 

Mancini is not even close to being worth Harrison. 

[Dark Helmet]

16 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Lol why would the Pirates make that trade? Harrison is a solid player with 4 years left and they already have their 1st baseman of the future in Josh Bell. 

Mancini is not even close to being worth Harrison. 

Your easy to amuse. And Harrison has 2 years left...not 4.

 

 

[Dark Helmet]

12 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Your easy to amuse. And Harrison has 2 years left...not 4.

 

 

I'm going to assume they won't pick up $20+m of options. They are the Pirates.

[gtown]

I know I've seen at least one writeup on Fangraphs that postulated that the adjustment downward for a DH is hard to quantify. As far as value to a team, it's obviously better to have a guy who can play a position. But if you're looking purely as a full-time DH, then really wins above replacement should reflect just that--how much better he would be offensively than a guy who is Quadruple A and should be expected to be available to a team.

Problem is, many teams don't have a full time DH--they rotate the position among major league talent, which may hit better than a typical replacement player. So where do you place the value of a "replacement player DH?"

I teach a statistics course, but I don't even want to try to look at the formula for bWAR or fWAR--hurts my head too much. But I can recognize the difficulty of quantifying a replacement level DH--my understanding is that both formulas have simply an agreed upon a penalty.

Common sense tells me that I'd rather not see Trumbo with a glove. Last year, he OPS'd .850. I'll take that from a DH. I don't have the numbers, but I'd imagine that's upper half of the league's DH production. I'll take that.

I wasn't crazy about re-signing Trumbo, but he is here now. The question I see is basically this (oversimplified). Would I rather have Trumbo in RF and Pedro Alvarez as DH or Angel Pagan in RF and Trumbo at DH?  I frame it that way because I'm thinking what would I do now as far as the next add. Both Alvarez and Pagan seem to be available.

Personally, I'd try to get Granderson for Mancini and Brach (or another reliever).

[theobird]

I absolutely would not look to trade Mancini. And I know I will catch hell for this, but I would put Davis in RF everyday and Trumbo at first base. Rickard and Smith can platoon in LF. Mancini and Kim can DH. That's the best team we can put on the field and these guys get paid plenty to go out and play the position that the manager tells them to. Davis should in time be a decent RFer. He has the tools.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, tntoriole said:

And using Trey at 24 years old as a part time DH only against left-handers and never playing in the field is just dumb.   I mean really dumb.  I hope he hits .500 in the spring and gets traded to a team that can use his talents.  But we will regret this one (we talk about all the pitchers that we traded, etc., but this one will really sting down the road. 

Depends on how good Mancini really is.    Opinions of scouts tend to vary.    In my second hand opinion, he's not as good a prospect as Zach Davies was when we traded him.   I think his probable outcome is Mitch Moreland offensively (.254/.315/.438) with lesser defensive skills.   But he may have a bit more upside than that.  

[wildcard]

10 hours ago, tntoriole said:

And using Trey at 24 years old as a part time DH only against left-handers and never playing in the field is just dumb.   I mean really dumb.  I hope he hits .500 in the spring and gets traded to a team that can use his talents.  But we will regret this one (we talk about all the pitchers that we traded, etc., but this one will really sting down the road. 

Mancini will turn 25 before the season starts.  It depend on what the O's get for him.   If they get an player that fits them well and he does well then it will be a fair swap.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, gtown said:

I teach a statistics course, but I don't even want to try to look at the formula for bWAR or fWAR--hurts my head too much. But I can recognize the difficulty of quantifying a replacement level DH--my understanding is that both formulas have simply an agreed upon a penalty.

Maybe some of the underlying calculations for the defensive metrics or runs created might be a little involved, but those numbers are easily accessible at multiple sites.  

But the actual calculation of WAR from the components is 3rd grade addition and subtraction.

[Just Regular]

I think the next half season, he has the most value for us seeing if he can Roenicke, and as catastrophic Davis insurance.  Davis ran way too close to the cliff of hit tool unplayability in year 1, and while I think it is most likely he'll regress in the good way, my interest in insurance is up.

I'm also curious to see if there's any Trumbo/Mancini synergy over the next year or two.  I am confident Trumbo is a smart baseball player and his aggression is mindful not reckless - he's made himself a useful contributor understanding that, and Mancini was his #1 PECOTA comp last year.  Perhaps Mancini just ends up being someone we slow-cook Cardinals style.