A Big Picture Perspective on the O's Outfield

[wildcard]

I would like to hear your perspective on the long term makeup of the O's outfield.   Not so much focusing on the 2017 season but rather thinking about where the O's are headed with the outfield for the longer term.

Here is mine:

1) Adam Jones - Is the O's centerfield until someone with more range and overall ability can knock him out of that spot.   He will play most of 2017 at age 31 with his 32nd birthday in August.   His contract runs through 2018.  He could be eligible to be a free agent at age 33 if the O's don't extend him before that.   At some point in the future Adam probably moves to right field.  At present I see him as an Oriole for life.  Although I don't see the O's addressing an extension with him until next off season at the earliest. 

2) Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim -  I see both  of these players as stop gap players probably being Orioles only for the 2017 season and available for trade at any time.   Neither has the range in the outfield that the O's want long term.  Both have some value as hitters, but on a team that values defense they are short timers.

3) Joey Rickard - Is 25 and will be 26 in May.   He has a chance to be a long term Oriole if he improves his hitting vs right-handed  pitching.  He showed last year he could hit left handed pitching in the majors with a 313/367/494/861 split.   He has the range the O's are looking for as a corner outfielder and can backup center field though he is probably not as good as Jones in center at this point.  At his age he is still improving.  He hit for a 283/390/397/787 stats in almost 1500 at bats in the minors.   His high OBP would look nice in the O's leadoff spot if he could improve to even a .350 OBP in the majors.  He has the speed to be a good base stealer but needs to work on that part of his game.  On the other hand he still has much to prove and if he doesn't improve he is a 4th outfielder.   But he has the potential to push either Smith or Kim to the bench or to trade if he improves.

4)  Aneury Tavarez  -  Will be 25 in April.  We haven't seen him play yet so all I have go on is his stats and some reports.  As a Rule 5 guy and the O's history with them he has a good chance to stick on the roster this year.  His minor league career numbers will not keep him on the roster but his numbers at AA last year will - 335/379/506/886.    He is supposed to have good speed and a strong arm.   He is undersized at 5.9" but there are plenty of major leaguers that have been successful at that height.  If he plays decent defense with his speed he could hold down the 5th outfielder spot playing as a defensive replacement late in games and a pinch runner.  Too early to tell about the long term.

5) Anthony Santander -  Will play this season at 22 years old.  We have not seen him yet but the reports are that he is a good young hitter with power from both sides of the plate.  The reports on his defense are nothing special.   He probably goes on the DL and if the O's can arrange it comes up the majors in August through September.  Don't ask me how that happens.  It's not clear yet.  It probably involves injuries and trades.  Right now he projects as a future DH who might play some left field.  He may spend 2018-2019 in the minors and be the heir apparent to Trumbo in 2020 at DH if he can stay on the 40 man roster all this year.

6) Mark Trumbo -  There are some scenarios that have  him platooning in right field vs lefties.  That may be what happens short term but in the long term he moves to DH and backs up first baseman.  The less he plays in the outfield the better.

7) Trey Mancini - Is not listed here because I expect him to play the outfield.   Instead he is listed because of the young, speedy outfielder that he might bring to the O's in trade.  Mancini could be part of a package deal that would improve the outfield. I think the O's will wait to see what they have in Tavarez before they pull the trigger on such a trade.  If the O's do trade for an outfielder it should be someone that can replace Jones in center in the long term.  Maybe in several years.  Because the lineup is mostly right-handed the O's should look to trade for a left-handed outfielder and trade either Kim or Smith.  That move would also lowering the payroll which is something that Dan specializes in.

Summary

 Good defensive outfielders help the O's pitching staff.  So long term if defense is as important as Buck say it is, Jones plays center until he moves to right  and the O's extend him at some point in the future.  Rickard has a chance to become a full time corner outfield and lead off  hitter if he shows he can hit right-handed pitching.  Tavarez gets a long look this spring to see if he can help offensively and defensively.  His speed may be an asset.  Smith and Kim are stopgap players that can be moved if better solutions are found.  Santander and Trumbo are not strong defensive players and probably don't figure to play much in the outfield.  That comment could change if Santander shows better defense than I expect.  A trade for a young left-handed outfielder that has good defensive skills and a strong arm in center may happen during spring training.

There is my take on the long term outfield picture.  What is yours?

[Camden_yardbird]

You should include Reimold in this discussion, if only because the Orioles seem enamoured with him.

Christian Walker, Alvarez and maybe Urritia, Avery and Hoes as candidates for the 5th OF job.  I doubt the Orioles would worry about send Tavares back if one of those guys blew up in ST.

[thezeroes]

6 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You should include Reimold in this discussion, if only because the Orioles seem enamoured with him.

Christian Walker, Alvarez and maybe Urritia, Avery and Hoes as candidates for the 5th OF job.  I doubt the Orioles would worry about send Tavares back if one of those guys blew up in ST.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

Joining the Braves on a minors pact is outfielder Xavier Avery. The 27-year-old played with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016, slashing .248/.332/.363 over 347 plate appearances. He briefly cracked the majors back in 2012 with Baltimore, but hasn’t made his way back since.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/minor-mlb-transactions-12417.html

 

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You should include Reimold in this discussion, if only because the Orioles seem enamoured with him.

Christian Walker, Alvarez and maybe Urritia, Avery and Hoes as candidates for the 5th OF job.  I doubt the Orioles would worry about send Tavares back if one of those guys blew up in ST.

I don't see any of those players impacting the long term picture for the O's outfield.  But that is just my point of view.

[Frobby]

Since you specified long-term, I think you start by looking to see what's in our farm system.   There are four guys in Tony's top 25 who are legitimate outfielders -- Austin Hays, Randy Gassaway, Cedric Mullins and D.J. Stewart.    Only Stewart has played above Delmarva, and his prospect status is iffy.     In short, we don't have any options in the farm system likely to be ready before 2019-20, and nobody down there that we are highly confident will be a major league regular.   It's a bad situation, especially with Kim and Smith on expiring deals this year and Jones expiring in 2018.   I think Duquette will extend Jones and then try to fill in around him.    Hopefully we'll have a little better grip on things after seeing how the above-mentioned prospects fare in 2017.    

[FanSince88]

57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would like to hear your perspective on the long term makeup of the O's outfield.   Not so much focusing for the 2017 season but rather thinking about where the O's are headed with in the outfield for the longer term.

Here is mine:

1) Adam Jones - Is the O's centerfield until someone with more range and overall ability can knock him out for that spot.   He will play most of 2017 at age 31 with his 32nd birthday in August.   His contract runs through 2018.  He could be eligible to be a free agent at age 33 if the O's don't extend him before that.   At some point in the future Adam probably moves to right field.  At present I see him has an Oriole for life.  Although I don't see the O's addressing an extension with him until next off season at the earliest. 

2) Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim -  I see both  of these players as stop gap players probably being Orioles only for the 2017 season and available for trade at any time.   Neither has the range in the outfield that the O's want long term.  Both have some value as hitters, but on a team that values defense they are short timers.

3) Joey Rickard - Is 25 and will be 26 in May.   He has a chance to be a long term Oriole if he improves his hitting vs right-handed  pitching.  He showed last year he could hit left handed pitching in the majors with a 313/367/494/861 split.   He has the range the O's are looking for as a corner outfielder and can backup center field though he is probably not as good as Jones in center at this point.  At his age he is still improving.  He hit for a 283/390/397/787 stats in almost 1500 at bats in the minors.   His high OBP would look nice in the O's leadoff spot if he could improve to even a .350 OBP in the majors.  He has the speed to be a good base stealer but needs to work on that part of his game.  On the other hand he still has much to prove and if he doesn't improve he is a 4th outfielder.   But he has the potential to push either Smith or Kim to the bench or to trade if he improves.

4)  Aneury Tavarez  -  Will be 25 in April.  We haven't seem him play yet so all I have go on is his stat and some reports.  As a Rule 5 guy and the O's history with them he has a good chance to stick on the roster this year.  His minor league career numbers will not keep on the roster but his numbers at AA last year will - 335/379/506/886.    He is supposed to have good speed and a strong arm.   He is undersized at 5.9" but there are plenty of major leaguers that have been successful at that height.  If he plays decent defense with his speed he could hold down the 5th outfielder spot playing as a defensive replacement late in games and a pinch runner.  Too early to tell about the long term.

5) Anthony Santander -  Will play this season at 22 years old.  We have not seen him yet but the reports are that he is a good young hitter with power from both sides of the plate.  The reports on his defense are nothing special.   He probably goes on the DL and if the O's can arrange it comes up the majors in August through September.  Don't ask me how that happens.  It's not clear yet.  It probably involves injuries and trades.  Right now he projects as a future DH who might play some left field.  He may spend 2018-2019 in the minors and be the heir apparent to Trumbo in 2020 at DH if he can stay on the 40 man roster all this year.

6) Mark Trumbo -  There are some scenarios that have  him platooning in right field vs lefties.  That may be what happens short term but in the long term he moves to DH and backs up first baseman.  The less he plays in the outfield the better.

7) Trey Mancini - Is not listed here because I expect him to play the outfield.   Instead he is listed because of the young, speedy outfielder that he might bring to the O's in trade.  Mancini could be part of package deal that would improve the outfield. I think the O's will wait to see what they have in Tavarez before they pull the trigger on such a trade.  If the O's do trade for an outfielder it should be someone that can replace Jones in center in the long term.  Maybe in several years.  Because the lineup is mostly right-handed the O's should look to trade for a left-handed outfielder and trade either Kim or Smith.  That move would also lowering the payroll which is something that Dan specializes in.

Summary

 Good defensive outfielders help the O's pitching staff.  So long term if defense is as important as Buck say it is, Jones plays center until he moves to right  and the O's extend him at some point in the future.  Rickard has a chance to become a full time corner outfield and lead off  hitter if he shows he can hit right-handed pitching.  Tavarez gets a long look this spring to see if he can help offensively and defensively.  His speed may be an asset.  Smith and Kim are stopgap players that can be moved if better solutions are found.  Santander and Trumbo are not strong defensive players and probably don't figure to play much in the outfield.  That comment could change if Santander shows better defense than I expect.  A trade for a young left-handed outfielder that has good defensive skills and a strong arm in center may happen during spring training.

There is my take on the long term outfield picture.  What is yours.

Expect a season-long competition between Smith and Kim to see who is more deserving of an extension.  I predict we will keep one and let the other walk.  They have similar skills -- Kim seems better with OBP than Smith but Smith's defense seems better than Kim's and he can play RF.  Will be interesting to compare their stats at season's end.  Could come down to whether or not Kim can hit MLB lefties as the determining factor.

[pastorfan]

You really think they value defense? I'm not sure they truly do based on their moves. 

[Redskins Rick]

56 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You should include Reimold in this discussion, if only because the Orioles seem enamoured with him.

Christian Walker, Alvarez and maybe Urritia, Avery and Hoes as candidates for the 5th OF job.  I doubt the Orioles would worry about send Tavares back if one of those guys blew up in ST.

I think Urritia's ship has passed, he doesn't have the skills to play a reserve role in the bigs.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, pastorfan said:

You really think they value defense? I'm not sure they truly do based on their moves. 

I think Buck always values defense.  They made a run at Fowler last year but the budget rules and that means wait for the market to play out and see who is left.  That is how they ended up with Pedro last year which moved Trumbo to the outfield. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

You should include Reimold in this discussion, if only because the Orioles seem enamoured with him.

Christian Walker, Alvarez and maybe Urritia, Avery and Hoes as candidates for the 5th OF job.  I doubt the Orioles would worry about send Tavares back if one of those guys blew up in ST.

I think Reimold just got younger and changed his name to Rickard. 

[Redskins Rick]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Buck always values defense.  They made a run at Fowler last year but the budget rules and that means wait for the market to play out and see who is left.  That is how they ended up with Pedro last year which moved Trumbo to the outfield. 

I think Fowler was in the budget and they wanted him, but they didn't want to be dictated by an opt out, after just 1 year.

He decided it was more important for him to have the opt out, and he went back on his verbal.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I think Fowler was in the budget and they wanted him, but they didn't want to be dictated by an opt out, after just 1 year.

He decided it was more important for him to have the opt out, and he went back on his verbal.

The Cards signed him this off season for 5/82.5m.   The O's budget didn't allow that. Last year the O's were waiting out the market and trying to get Fowler as a bargain.  It didn't work.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The Cards signed him this off season for 5/82.5m.   The O's budget didn't allow that. Last year the O's were waiting out the market and trying to get Fowler as a bargain.  It didn't work.

But, the cubs signed him for the same amount of money last year that the Orioles offered, except for the opt out.

Personally 9 million is not what I would consider a bargain.

Fowler helped his value by having a 4.1 WAR season last year.

 

[ChuckS]

I think extending Jones on a three year contract and finding a young center fielder via trade is the best way to extend the life of the OF.  Adam moves to RF where his defense will go from negative to being a plus.  

Jarrod Dyson will also be a free agent after 2017 is another option for CF. 

Agree that's it's not a great situation looking forward.  No help from the minors and no one signed past next year.  I'm holding out hope that Austin Hayes could be a fast mover and ready to contribute by 2019.  If he is any good I think you will see him in Bowie by the end of this season.  

[Camden_yardbird]

I think trying to project how this team looks after the next two years is nearly impossible.  If talent is not added through trades and we just let all these guys walk then it will be a very dark end to this decade.