More hilarious than ever: PECOTA projects the Orioles at 71-91

[Number5]

Psychics get predictions "right" every now and then - and those are the predictions that they publicize. 

[Frobby]

Just now, oriole said:

You're right, 5.06 does seem like they're predicting an outlier. I can't say I've been a huge fan of Tillman and while I appreciate that he has been putting up respectable numbers, any game he pitches I'm on the edge of my seat for the first inning or so to see if it's going to be one of "those games" for him.  I have a hard time having faith he will have a good game. My pessimistic prediction for him would probably be closer to 4.50 ERA

While Tillman often struggles in the first two innings, I'd say he has "one of those games" a lot less often than most pitchers.    Hence, his stellar W-L record and solid ERA.   Taking last year as an example, he allowed 6 runs four times and 5 runs once.  Meanwhile, he allowed 1 run or fewer 12 times and 2 runs another 6.   He failed to pitch 5 innings only four times, one of which was on Opening Day when he was pulled after a long rain delay.    

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I don't believe that those guys needed Buck (or any manager) to become better players.  But that's just me.  And that's not a slight towards Buck.  I think the players themselves, and maybe their hitting/pitching coach, are 100% in control of that. 

I'm not asserting that they needed him.  I'm saying that the question of a manager's impact becomes much harder to handwave away (i.e. "it's easy to be a good manager when you have good players") if you consider the potential relationship between a manager and player development OR the relationship between a manager and players reaching their true potential (a .775 OPS season vs. a .750 OPS season).

Again, not taking anything away from the players, just suggesting that it becomes a more interesting discussion IMO.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I don't believe that those guys needed Buck (or any manager) to become better players.  But that's just me.  And that's not a slight towards Buck.  I think the players themselves, and maybe their hitting/pitching coach, are 100% in control of that. 

I think Buck has a big impact on (1) the bullpen, and (2) the preparation of the team on defense.     There's been a huge downturn in the number of mental errors on defense since Buck arrived.    He also utilizes his bullpen very, very well.    

[oriole]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While Tillman often struggles in the first two innings, I'd say he has "one of those games" a lot less often than most pitchers.    Hence, his stellar W-L record and solid ERA.   Taking last year as an example, he allowed 6 runs four times and 5 runs once.  Meanwhile, he allowed 1 run or fewer 12 times and 2 runs another 6.   He failed to pitch 5 innings only four times, one of which was on Opening Day when he was pulled after a long rain delay.    

Stop it with your evidence based analysis! This is America 2017, our conclusions are emotional driven only!

He does have a career .827 OPS against for the first inning but believe it or not, his second inning is even worse. 

[oriole]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder if the switch to Beef behind the plate impacted the numbers?

That's a good question. I don't know how PETCO or anyone else gets these predictions. He has performed better with Wieters than most other catchers, I wonder if it's because he could trust throwing his curve to him? Wieters had his faults but he always seemed to be good at blocking pitches. 

[Spy Fox]

Is PECOTA strictly algorithm based like the Fangraphs projections or is there more of a human element? Either way that's a bizarrely low projection. I disagree with Fangraphs' high 70s projection but I'm not shocked by it. But 71 is...weird.

[Larry18]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Psychics get predictions "right" every now and then - and those are the predictions that they publicize. 

Jean Dixon predicted the assassination of JFK. 

 

She also predicted that moon people would kidnap all teen agers

[jjdman]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

PECOTA has the Orioles scoring 712 runs (down 32 from last year) and allowing 818 (up 103), leading to a 71-91 record and a last place finish.   At least they're consistent!  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

OPS Projections:

Davis .834

Schoop .727

Machado .813

Hardy .664

Kim .773

Jones .777

Smith .759

Trumbo .779

Castillo .724

Joseph .641

Flaherty .666

Rickard .712

Mancini .760

ERA Projections:

Tillman 5.06

Gausman 4.34

Bundy 4.66

Miley 4;56

Jimenez 4.99

Britton 2.94

O'Day 3.97

Brach 3.96

Givens 4.13

The offensive projections seem credible, though a bit pessimistic.    The pitching projections just seem outrageous.

 

I wish my bookie's name was PECOTA

[BohKnowsBmore]

43 minutes ago, jjdman said:

I wish my bookie's name was PECOTA

There may be some value in the Orioles season win total O/U bet yet again this year.

[Tryptamine]

PECOTA is notorious for their often nonsensical predictions. Hell, right now they have the Cubs at 90-72 which is 13 fewer wins than last year despite a vastly improved pen and getting full seasons out of Schwarber/Contreras, while the Dodgers are the run away best team in the NL at 98-64. The Astros are supposedly the best team in the AL at 93-69.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

PECOTA is notorious for their often nonsensical predictions. Hell, right now they have the Cubs at 90-72 which is 13 fewer wins than last year despite a vastly improved pen and getting full seasons out of Schwarber/Contreras, while the Dodgers are the run away best team in the NL at 98-64. The Astros are supposedly the best team in the AL at 93-69.

Normally, a projection system will tend to regress towards the mean and therefore the teams should be relatively tightly packed.

HOLD THE PRESSES: the projected standings have been revised already, with the O's now "upgraded" to 73-89, scoring 727 runs and allowing 813.   Our Fielding Runs Above Average is now -4.3 (Can_of_corn previously reported it was at -23.3).    Apparently the playing time for certain players was adjusted -- don't ask me who.   Thanks to the defensive adjustment, the ERA's are very slightly down (about .02-.03 each).

[OFFNY]

On 2/7/2017 at 1:31 PM, Tryptamine said:

 

PECOTA is notorious for their often nonsensical predictions. Hell, right now they have the Cubs at 90-72, which is 13 fewer wins than last year despite a vastly improved pen and getting full seasons out of Schwarber/Contreras, while the Dodgers are the run-away best team in the NL at 98-64. The Astros are supposedly the best team in the AL at 93-69.

 

 

 

On 2/7/2017 at 2:00 PM, Frobby said:

 

Normally, a projection system will tend to regress towards the mean, and therefore the teams should be relatively tightly packed.

HOLD THE PRESSES: the projected standings have been revised already, with the O's now "upgraded" to 73-89, scoring 727 runs and allowing 813. Our Fielding Runs Above Average is now - 4.3 (Can_of_corn previously reported it was at - 23.3.) Apparently, the playing time for certain players was adjusted ------ don't ask me who.

 

o

 

In 5 hours, we picked up 2 wins ???

At that rate, we will break the 1906 Cubs' all-time regular season winning percentage of .763 (116-36) by Monday morning.

 

o

[Just Regular]

It does illustrate our potential SP depth vulnerability if someone goes down.

The now 73-89 projection includes 32 GS by non-rotation members, 240 innings total of replacement level work at about 5.25 combined ERA.

In contrast, the rest of the division's 6th starter's ERA projections are:

3.90 for Steven Wright, 3.49 for Jose DeLeon, 4.42 for Luis Severino (surprised not to see him in their projected rotation), and 3.97 for Mike Bolsinger.

 

 

[Dark Helmet]

I think Miley will have a good year actually. I think he'll win 12 or so games this year with an ERA just north of 4. And toss 180ish innings. Just a gut feeling. I'm not as down on Miley as many. Especially for a 4th starter.