The Lineup - Maximizing OBP at Top, then Power

[Dark Helmet]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't want Kim hitting second.  The way he hits the ball hard and on the ground, coupled with his less than blazing speed he is a DP waiting to happen.

I assume Kim bats 2. Buck likes to flip RH/LH.

[Dark Helmet]

11 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

I assume Kim bats 2. Buck likes to flip RH/LH.

Plus he's a LH. You have a hole if the 1B is holding a runner on 1B.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Dark Helmet said:

I assume Kim bats 2. Buck likes to flip RH/LH.

I'd prefer him to leadoff over hitting second.

[Dark Helmet]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd prefer him to leadoff over hitting second.

I agree. Deep down, it wouldn't shock me if Jones is leading off. 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he also has a chance to come up with 2 out and 0 on in the first.  That is something that isn't possible if he bats fourth or fifth.

Trust me the math has been done.  As has been mentioned already it's in The Book.

BTW your 70% is flawed.

Depends on the players.  Manny can run.  He belongs in front of Davis and Trumbo not behind them.

[backwardsk]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he also has a chance to come up with 2 out and 0 on in the first.  That is something that isn't possible if he bats fourth or fifth.

Trust me the math has been done.  As has been mentioned already it's in The Book.

BTW your 70% is flawed.

If Manny is batting fourth, there multiple scenarios where he can come up in the first with two outs and nobody on.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

If Manny is batting fourth, there multiple scenarios where he can come up in the first with two outs and nobody on.

True, but a run will have scored.  It is also a lot less common than if he were batting third.

[ELMERO]

6 hours ago, larrytt said:

Against Righties
LF Hyun Kim (L) (.393 OBP vs. righties)
RF Seth Smith (L) (.351 OBP vs. righties)
3rd Manny Machado (R) (37 HR)
1st Chris Davis (L) (38 HR)
DH Mark Trumbo (R) (47 HR)
CF Adam Jones (R) (29 HR)
2nd Jonathan Schoop (R) (25 HR)
C Welington Castillo (R)
SS J.J. Hardy (R)

 

 

Against Lefties
LF Joey Rickard (R) (.367 OBP vs. lefties)
DH Trey Mancini (R) (.384 OBP, .978 OPS vs. lefties in AAA)
3rd Manny Machado (R) (37 HR)
RF Mark Trumbo (R) (47 HR)
1st Chris Davis (L) (38 HR)
CF Adam Jones (R) (29 HR)
2nd Jonathan Schoop (R) (25 HR)
C Welington Castillo (R)
SS J.J. Hardy (R)

 

 

 

Advantages

 

• Gives extremely high OBP at the first two spots in the lineup.

   

• Literal "Murderer's Row" from 3-7, who average 35.2 HR last year.

   

• Keeps two strong pinch hitters on bench for opposite-handed relief pitcher.

   

Disadvantages

 

• Not a lot of speed except for Rickard against lefties.

   

• Against righties, lefties batting 1, 2, and 4.

   

• Mancini mashes lefties, but is unproven at major league level.

   

Hey, "larrytt", I read the title of your thread and will respond to what your are really saying.  "To optimize the power",  I think your line-ups are interesting.  At least, you have come up with something fresh and worth thinking about.

[backwardsk]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

True, but a run will have scored.  It is also a lot less common than if he were batting third.

Sure.  Do you think your best hitter has a better chance of getting himself into scoring position with two outs than your fifth best hitter?

I've read excerpts about the lineup philosophy from the book.  But the following has never been explained to me:  If they are using historical scenarios to determine that the number 5 spot comes up at the most important times, but teams have hit their best hitters 3-4, why would one continue to expect that to happen when your best player moves to five and inferior hitters hit ahead of him?  Wouldn't six and seven then become more important?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Sure.  Do you think your best hitter has a better chance of getting himself into scoring position with two outs than your fifth best hitter?

I've read excerpts about the lineup philosophy from the book.  But the following has never been explained to me:  If they are using historical scenarios to determine that the number 5 spot comes up at the most important times, but teams have hit their best hitters 3-4, why would one continue to expect that to happen when your best player moves to five and inferior hitters hit ahead of him?  Wouldn't six and seven then become more important?

If I am understanding your question correctly I would say that the innings would end.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

A Smith/Kim platoon in LF?    Interesting.    And crazy.

You are looking back.   If you look forward it more understandable.   

If, and I know many think its a big if. but if Rickard hits for a high OBP then he has the speed  to beat out Smith in RF.    That leaves one spot for Smith and Kim. 

I know that most fans will go with the history of the OBP of Kim and Smith.  But that is a terrible defensive outfield.  Its bad for the pitchers who have to watch their ERA climb because the two outfielders can't get to balls that Rickard would catch.  I don't think Buck will stand for that very long if Rickard puts up a high OBP.

Its all in Rickard's hands.  He has to show he can do what he did in the minors and hit for a high OBP.  If he does the lineup I posted works.  If he doesn't hit for a high OBP it doesn't work.  It that simple IMO.

 

[mdbdotcom]

6 hours ago, larrytt said:

...

Against Lefties

DH Trey Mancini (R) (.384 OBP, .978 OPS vs. lefties in AAA)

...

If Mancini is on the team, our late-inning defense in the corners could be Rickard and Flaherty, as there will not be room for a 2nd outfielder on the bench.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I'm no mathematician but I'm pretty sure that's not right. 

It's not close.    Nobody in MLB bats with runners on 70% of the time.    Only about 43% of at bats are with runners on base, and it's not because the two batters in front have .215 OBP's.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's not close.    Nobody in MLB bats with runners on 70% of the time.    Only about 43% of at bats are with runners on base, and it's not because the two batters in front have .215 OBP's.

I was talking about to start the game.   After the first time through he order it doesn't work because the bottom of the order batters with low OBP often start innings.   

Its pretty simple math.  If two .350 OBP hitters hit to begin the game the third hitter has a 70% chance that at least one runner will be on base when he comes up.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I was talking about to start the game.   After the first time through he order it doesn't work because the bottom of the order batters with low OBP often start innings.   

Its pretty simple math.  If two .350 OBP hitters hit to begin the game the third hitter has a 70% chance that at least one runner will be on base when he comes up.

It doesn't work like that.

Also, double plays.