The Nick Markakis 2,000th hit countdown thread

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Il BuonO said:

I know. Again, don’t think it’s a viable option.

I agree, his career isn't at the nadir that is required to come back to the O's.  He'd be a good candidate in 2021.

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I agree, his career isn't at the nadir that is required to come back to the O's.  He'd be a good candidate in 2021.

Lol, touché.

[Redskins Rick]

On 8/29/2018 at 7:53 AM, Frobby said:

Nick is in a mild slump, but has reached 2211 hits, tied for 184th on the all time list.    In his next 10 hits he’ll pass Joe Kuhel, Joe DiMaggio, Juan Pierre and Joe Kelley.

Interestingly, DiMaggio accrued his  2214 hits in 13 seasons, and Nick is also in his 13th season.   However, Nick has played 234 more games, and counting.

Joe spent 3 years in the military during the war, and missed half a season at 34,

Nick only missed a few weeks in one season, in spite of being hurt a few times, which

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Joe spent 3 years in the military during the war, and missed half a season at 34,

Nick only missed a few weeks in one season, in spite of being hurt a few times, which

Yeah but those 3 years didn’t count among his 13 seasons.   So, it’s apples to apples in that regard.   

DiMaggio was not as durable as Nick in the 13 years he played, and/or his managers just rested players more.   He missed about 266 games, while Nick has missed 105 (in addition to the season being 8 games longer).   Nick has to be in the 99th percentile in terms of durability.

[OFFNY]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Yeah, but those 3 years didn’t count among his 13 seasons. So, it’s apples to apples in that regard.   

DiMaggio was not as durable as Nick in the 13 years he played, and/or his managers just rested players more. He missed about 266 games, while Nick has missed 105 (in addition to the season being 8 games longer). Nick has to be in the 99th percentile in terms of durability.

 

o

 

If his hamate bone isn't broken, Nick is playing.

 

 

 

o

[Redskins Rick]

On 9/21/2018 at 7:20 PM, Frobby said:

Yeah but those 3 years didn’t count among his 13 seasons.   So, it’s apples to apples in that regard.   

DiMaggio was not as durable as Nick in the 13 years he played, and/or his managers just rested players more.   He missed about 266 games, while Nick has missed 105 (in addition to the season being 8 games longer).   Nick has to be in the 99th percentile in terms of durability.

Good points, but, I do think there was times that Nick played hurt, hurt his own numbers, and probably the team too.

[Frobby]

For the 11th time in his 13 seasons, Nick has played 155+ games this season.    The only exceptions were his rookie year, when he was eased into the lineup over the first few months but still played 147 games, and 2012, when he sustained a broken wrist and later a broken thumb.

Nick has started every game this year, and now that the Braves have clinched the NL East it will be interesting to see if he continues to start the remaining games.    Last game, he started but was pulled after 1 at bat.    

[Frobby]

Nick slumped a bit at the end of the season and finished the season with 2,237 hits, good for 174th place and 2 shy of John Olerud.    I’m hoping he heats up for the playoffs.   

[Frobby]

First installment for 2019:  Nick went 5 for 5 yesterday to reach 2,246 hits.    In his next 10 hits he will tie Patsy Donovan and Jimmy Dykes, and pass Willie McGee, Ron Santo, Jose Cruz, Marquis Grissom, Bert Campaneris, and Edgar Martinez.

Its unclear if Nick will play quite as much as in the past, but he’s got a shot of finishing the year in the 2400-2420 range which would put him in the company of players like Pie Traynor, Mickey Mantle, Sammy Sosa, Miguel Tejada and Stuffy McInnis.

[Just Regular]

If only Nick could be his own manager like Pete Rose 3 years from now, I think I would say I'm past the tipping point of expecting it to happen.

I wonder if we'll have teams 31-32 by then...

I just had my first pass at the algebra - he needs 191 hits/year for 4 years to make it.  He's ahead of the 30-hits a month pace he'll need to sustain for 24 months (and change) of play to get there for April 2019 so far.

I thought Adam DuVall was a real problem when ATL got him, but he has tanked so horribly and with this first week, one more year of 650 PA's is coming into view.

If he has one indelible October moment anytime in the next couple years, I can squint and see him as a champion of the BBWAA old guard 10 years from now before they all retire, and the voters who rely heavily on JAWS-baselines become more powerful in the electorate.

For as long as it lasts, this will be a joy to follow while we wait out the rebuild.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

 

If he has one indelible October moment anytime in the next couple years, I can squint and see him as a champion of the BBWAA old guard 10 years from now before they all retire, and the voters who rely heavily on JAWS-baselines become more powerful in the electorate.

Hey, he’s already got more hits than Edgar Martinez and Joe DiMaggio!  

I’d say Nick would have some chance to get in if he somehow got over 3,000 hits, because that’s such a time-honored milestone.   He’s 4th on the active hit list behind Pujols, Cabrera and Cano, and looking at the players behind him the best candidates for 3000 are:

Justin Upton (31) 1604

Elvis Andrus (30) 1570

Starlin Castro (29) 1454

Jose Altuve (29) 1425

Mike Trout (27) 1194

Manny Machado (26) 1056

If I’m guessing, I’d say the first three won’t make it.    They all started very young but don’t average that many hits per year.    I like the chances for Altuve, Trout and Manny if they stay healthy.

[backwardsk]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Hey, he’s already got more hits than Edgar Martinez and Joe DiMaggio!  

I’d say Nick would have some chance to get in if he somehow got over 3,000 hits, because that’s such a time-honored milestone.   He’s 4th on the active hit list behind Pujols, Cabrera and Cano, and looking at the players behind him the best candidates for 3000 are:

Justin Upton (31) 1604

Elvis Andrus (30) 1570

Starlin Castro (29) 1454

Jose Altuve (29) 1425

Mike Trout (27) 1194

Manny Machado (26) 1056

If I’m guessing, I’d say the first three won’t make it.    They all started very young but don’t average that many hits per year.    I like the chances for Altuve, Trout and Manny if they stay healthy.

I'd give Freeman consideration due to position.  It depends on how long he plays.  Also like Harper's chances because he's locked in for 13 years though he has an injury history.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

I'd give Freeman consideration due to position.  It depends on how long he plays.  Also like Harper's chances because he's locked in for 13 years though he has an injury history.

Harper walks a ton which is going to cut down on his chances.

[backwardsk]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Harper walks a ton which is going to cut down on his chances.

He does.  At least last year he did.  He'd have to average 160 hits a season to get there.  I know he's only exceeded that once in his MVP year (172), but I still think it's a possibility if healthy.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

I'd give Freeman consideration due to position.  It depends on how long he plays.  Also like Harper's chances because he's locked in for 13 years though he has an injury history.

Yeah, I could see Freeman having a shot.    He’s actually close to 100 hits ahead of where Nick was at his age, primarily because he had 165 hits before age 22 (Nick’s debut age).    He’s only had one season over 176 hits (191 last year) and he’d need to average that for 11 seasons to reach 3000, but it’s possible.    Harper’s possible too if he stays healthy.    

My main point was that if Nick were to manage to do it (which is a long shot) it would probably take at least 5-6 years after that before anybody else accomplished that feat.