Are any of the teams in the Wild Card race sellers?

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, MDK02 said:

Rangers said they're shopping Yu Darvish, I believe. 

In 2008, Milwaukee acquired impending free agent CC Sabathia.  He debuted as a Brewer on July 8th, made 17 Brewer starts and pitched 130.2 innings, including 7 complete games.

If the 2017 Orioles somehow got Darvish, would we use him more or less than the Brewers used CC?

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, MDK02 said:

Rangers said they're shopping Yu Darvish, I believe. 

Good point.

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

To say that the O's can't pick up 3.5 games in 10 weeks is not a strong position.  Its possible for the O's to do but not a sure thing. 

What would you say the odds are?  Fangraphs says we have a 6% chance to make the playoffs, while BP says 3%.     Those odds are not impossible, but are you really going to make moves that hurt you in the future to take a 3-6% shot at the playoffs?    Would you do it even if you think the odds are  double that, say 12%?

[Orsulak4Prez]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

To say that the O's can't pick up 3.5 games in 10 weeks is not a strong position.  Its possible for the O's to do but not a sure thing. Every wild card team has their flaws.   Getting Davis, Tillman and Britton back helps.  

If Dan following his normal pattern he will trade a minor leaguer for a #4 starter at the deadline.  Then the O's will have 4 starters that give them a fighting chance through August.  In September the roster expands and the O's will add minor league relievers to off load the starters.  Buck has a history on doing very well in September with more pitchers to maneuver.

I think the O's ownership and management will make their decisions on 2017  and 2018 FA during this coming off season.

It certainly is possible. I think you make some very good points, but I don't think adding a #4 really puts us over the top as a real contender. It would definitely help to have another reliable arm in the rotation, but I just don't see the O's truly contending this year with the inconsistency of the rotation. I don't mean to take a pessimistic viewpoint, but trading Britton could help us out as early as next year given the right return.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

To say that the O's can't pick up 3.5 games in 10 weeks is not a strong position.

If it were as simple as picking up 3.5 games I'd say go for it, (even though we have one of the worst run differentials which has shown to have predictive value for future results).

However, the problem is we don't just need to pick up 3.5 games.

We would have to outplay TB and KC by 3.5 games each.

Min by 2.5 games.

And Tex, LA, and Sea by 1 game.

If any of those teams even manages an equal record to the O's going forward we are done. 

 

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

If you go for it this year, it's safe to say you're going for it next year as well. So tell me, is it worth it to  go for it on very low odds just to try and sneak into a one game playoff? If you wait to move Machado/Britton/Brach until next year's deadline you can guarantee yourself you're going to get a substantially lesser return.

I don't see why the stuff about next year follows. I have no idea what goes on inside the mysterious black box that is Oriole decision-making. Nonetheless, I believe it would make a lot more sense deciding how to approach next year during the off-season, when -- I hope -- a decision about Manny will be made and implemented. That decision should drive others about the team's future. If Manny's traded, along with Britton and maybe others, we have a chance to get the SPing (and a SS) we need to compete within a couple of years, and will need to promote, acquire or pick up as a FA a 3Bman. If Manny's not traded, it appears, the strategy will be different. It appears that we won't get that SPing and will have to wait for our own prospects (and maybe some that we acquire in trades) to be ready. Or if that doesn't work out, the next generation of SPing prospects. 

Going back to the original post, whether a team is still in the WC race this year is a close call for some teams. Most teams can confront that decision, make a call, and then try to implement it by buying or selling or standing pat.

For the Orioles, things seem to be a little bit different. While they've talked about being buyers and could  still go in that direction ( ), I think most of us agree that using our young talent to buy veteran talent for this year or this year and next would be dumb. It appears that Duquette has some interest in selling, but that ownership has told him that only certain assets can be sold and some cannot, and that it will need to approve any deal that's made. The result is that the Orioles appear to be potential sellers, but only in a limited, half-assed way that prevents them from making a planned, coherent set of moves to strengthen the team for this season or for the future. They have been disabled from making a complete, coherent decision to be buyers or sellers or stand pat -- and have announced that to the world. (As an aside, I think the Orioles and many of their fans tend to over-estimate Manny, and look at the prospect of trading him as equivalent to trading Trout or Harper or Goldschmidt. I don't think the rest of the world sees him that way, especially this year.)

If the OPer or others think that's a different way to do business from most or all the rest of MLB, they're probably right. That's what happens when you have a pig-headed owner who doesn't fully trust his VP/GM, thinks he knows as much  or more about baseball than the professionals who work for him, and has made some poor decisions that he lacks the revenues (or personal wealth that he's willing to use) to spend his way out of. I thought we had moved past that point a few years ago. I was wrong. 

[Babypowder]

37 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

If it were as simple as picking up 3.5 games I'd say go for it, (even though we have one of the worst run differentials which has shown to have predictive value for future results).

However, the problem is we don't just need to pick up 3.5 games.

We would have to outplay TB and KC by 3.5 games each.

Min by 2.5 games.

And Tex, LA, and Sea by 1 game.

If any of those teams even manages an equal record to the O's going forward we are done. 

 

This. Just saying we are only 3.5 games back makes it sound much closer than it actually is.

[wildcard]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

What would you say the odds are?  Fangraphs says we have a 6% chance to make the playoffs, while BP says 3%.     Those odds are not impossible, but are you really going to make moves that hurt you in the future to take a 3-6% shot at the playoffs?    Would you do it even if you think the odds are  double that, say 12%?

Why are you listening to them?  This is the same people that said the O's could not win for the last 5 years.

What I see is an O's team that is revitalized by the return of Davis and Britton as well as Tillman finally finding his prior form.   They have won 6 of the last 8.   They have the offense, defense and pen to win.   Tillman, Gausman and Bundy are pitching well.  I think they are one starter away from being a playoff team and being only 3.5 out with 10 weeks to go they have plenty of time to put on a surge and make the playoffs.

What the O's need to address is having both Miley and Ubaldo in the rotation.   They can probably survive with one of them as a starter but not two.   The O's do not eat large contracts which puts the in a bind.  But the O's does sit guys in a corner  and not use them for lengths on time.  That is probably what happens here.  

The O's can DFA Kim who has 1.4m left on his contract.  With any luck someone will claim him,  If not they may be able to trade him by eating a portion of his contract.   The O's can then go to an 8 man pen for the month on August which allows them to put either Miley (3.4m left on his contract) or Ubaldo (4.5m left on his contract) in the pen.    

Its clear to me that Dan would like to add an experienced starter.   If he can he will.  But if the price is too steep he can promote Asher who is pitching well at AAA  or Aquino who is not as consistent IMO.  Its not ideal but they have a chance to help the rotation.

In September when the rosters expand Wotherspoon, Rodriguez and Long look like relievers that can help lighten the load on the starters. 

Don't listen to the nay sayers.  They have never been on the O's side.   The O's are a starter away.  Everything else is in place for a playoff run.

 

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Don't listen to the nay sayers.  They have never been on the O's side.   The O's are a starter away.  Everything else is in place for a playoff run.

 

What are you willing to give up to get that starter, and what kind of starter does that get you?

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What are you willing to give up to get that starter, and what kind of starter does that get you?

Something like this.  DJ Stewart for R A Dickey.  

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why are you listening to them?  This is the same people that said the O's could not win for the last 5 years.

Who said I'm listening to them?    I  asked you what YOU thought the odds were.   You didn't answer my question.    

Try it this way:

1.   If the O's acquire a decent starting pitcher, their chances of making the playoffs are __%.

2.   If the O's stand pat, their chances of making the playoffs are __%.

I'm genuinely interested to know what numbers you'd put in the blanks, and what you think it'll cost us to get a decent starting pitcher.

 

 

[DirtyBird]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Something like this.  DJ Stewart for R A Dickey.  

What does Lance Lynn cost us?

What if we got Dickey and Lynn?

Does that put us in a place to challenge for the division, instead of just hoping for WC game?

[weams]

23 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Is it worth it to  go for it on very low odds just to try and sneak into a one game playoff? If you wait to move Machado/Britton/Brach until next year's deadline you can guarantee yourself you're going to get a substantially lesser return.

2

Of course, if you can do that it is worth it. It's a coin flip or Ubaldo pitch from been a full blown World Series run. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Of course, if you can do that it is worth it. It's a coin flip or Ubaldo pitch from been a full blown World Series run. 

I love you weams, but I get tired of folks blaming Ubaldo or Buck (for not using Britton) for that loss.   We were held scoreless for the last 7 innings, didn't put on a single baserunner over the last 4 innings.     I blame the offense.   Their approach at the plate got worse and worse as the game progressed.    

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Frobby said:

I love you weams, but I get tired of folks blaming Ubaldo or Buck (for not using Britton) for that loss.   We were held scoreless for the last 7 innings, didn't put on a single baserunner over the last 4 innings.     I blame the offense.   Their approach at the plate got worse and worse as the game progressed.    

This is true