We are a 10th place team

[accinfo]

12 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

There have been a lot of swings and misses since the 2014 squad (Tillman, Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Norris, Gausman).

 

To say Tillman, Chen, Miquel Gonzalez, and Guasman are swings and misses just isn't true.  Norris I will give you.  Gausman's career isn't over yet but I will say the jury is still out on him.  

[Beef Supreme]

Quote

sell off the few blue chips (Machado, Brittan [sic] and Schoop)  in order to get the 3-4 okay-to-good pitcher candidates

This is a recipe for a lower winning percentage.

Do you want to trade the Orioles' best players in a generation for mediocre pitchers already in MLB or for mediocre pitchers in minors?

[spiritof66]

This thread has several comparisons of the Orioles to the NYYs and RS.  A few observations about some of the differences that relate to building a contending team.

1. After the advent of free agency in the 70s, there developed a division between teams that would sign expensive free agents and those that wouldn't, based largely on the amount of revenues the team generated (though there were other factors). That split still exists, especially for the most expensive free agents, but its blurred by the fact that shared revenues means every team has some money to spend on free agents if they want to do that. Today, a bigger difference between high-revenue teams and everyone else, IMO, is that they can be confident of being able to retain their young stars indefinitely if they want to, and can plan on that basis. They can use their MiL prospects in trades if they decide to extend their veterans or sign them as free agents. 

2.  The NYYs and RS will have more MiL, and probably more ML talent, because they draw from a bigger base due to their extensive Latin American operations. Take a look at each team's young stars; that's where many of them come from, without the cost of draft picks or talent. The Orioles do not have a way to bring in that talent, and won't for some time,  aside from other team's discards.

3. The RS can afford to have a couple of down years while they rebuild. Even if the team has a losing season or two, their fans aren't going anywhere. New England baseball fans will still fill Fenway Park, if not to capacity then pretty close. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/rsoxatte.shtmll. Where else are they going to go?  

The NYYs are at a little more risk of losing fans and attendance to the Mets, as happened in the 1980s (and as some predicted would occur this year). The Mets' dysfunctionality and a rash of injuries, together with the NYYs' on-field success, prevented any possibility of that. But even a down year or two won't put much of a dent in baseball's biggest money-maker. There are too many companies, service firms and very rich people who will shell out big dollars for NYY season tickets, and will jump at the opportunity to get better seats if it arises.

By contrast, another string of losing seasons could be disastrous for the Orioles' attendance revenues, especially if the Nats keep winning, as seems likely at the moment. If the Orioles lose fans, especially young fans, to the Nats or other forms of entertainment, I suspect it would take a run as a real contender, not just a WC contender, to bring them back.

4. Although the NYYs floundered for a while, both they and the RS appear to have reasonable plans for building winning teams. The Orioles have elements of planning in place -- you can argue whether those plans are optimal or even good -- but they get disrupted and impeded by moves made by an owner who is (a) committed to winning immediately and apparently doesn't care about the future of the franchise more than two years out, even if the tools for winning now aren't at hand, and (b) weighs the team down by decisions that reflect his ignorance and poor judgment, so that we're stuck with the Davis, Trumbo and O'Day contracts and haven't even pursued an extension with Machado.

That's in large part why we're stuck with a lousy first basemen and DH, don't know who our future 2B and 3B will be, have a CF who really can't play CF any longer, had no SS until we grabbed one from the Rays (and let's see how that works out), and have a bullpen back end with guys who were outstanding but now are so-so. All these guys are untradeable for now, and probably for as long as current ownership is in place -- so we have no trade chips other than our few good prospects. It's tough to build a winner out of that.

 

[1968_bills_fan]

56 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

This is a recipe for a lower winning percentage.

Do you want to trade the Orioles' best players in a generation for mediocre pitchers already in MLB or for mediocre pitchers in minors?

Neither.  I want to sell each one of them off for 2-3  20 game winners.

[1968_bills_fan]

19 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Last I looked we were #12 from the bottom.

We play in the American league.

 

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

When I was a young kid, there were no divisions in MLB.  There was an American League and a National League and the winners of those two leagues played a World Series.    For decade and decades and for generations, fans were used to seeing an 8 (or so) team league and following the standings.  For some back-end teams, success was measured by moving up a spot or two in the standings-  from 7th to 4th was a woozer season.

Now we have 3 teams winning divisions, which are sort of a 4-5 team, season long race.  The rest of the league is striving towards a "wild card" spot and there are 15 teams competing.  The Orioles, right now, are in 10th place in a 15 team league- or you might say, are in 7th place in a 12 team league. That is the way it looks for the last third of the season.

Looking at it that way-  it strengthens my view that we are not going to go anywhere the next few years with a very fatal flaw of having only ONE  good pitcher.  It is time to dump the fading stars (Davis, Trumpo) and sell off the few blue chips (Machado, Brittan and Schoop)  in order to get the 3-4 okay-to-good pitcher candidates that we need to succeed in the 12 team league.  We should be looking at the intersection of the careers of our young good players (Mancini, Beckham, Santander, Sisco, Mullins(et.al.?), Montcastle ...) in time with the arrival of valid major league pitching. 

There is some start reality here.  Yes, Manny & Schoop are young and very good.    Keeping them will leave no money or chips for anything else.  But pitchers in involved in EVERY defensive play and if you don't have pitching, then nothing else matters.

 

I can see where you are coming from. Ownership is not going to just let the contracts of CD and Trumbo go. Too much money is owed. And I would like the team to be built around Manny and Schoop if at all possible. You are right. Pitching is a top need.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Chant: We're number 10!  We're number 10!

Bundy, Gausman and Castro.   May be a good top of the rotation.  Then the O's have Jones, Mancini, Hayes, Mullins, Stewart Santander and Rifaela as outfielders,  That seven guys for 5 spots.  Looks like there could be a trade in there somewhere.   Plus Britton is probably traded at some point.  Plus some other players from the playoff team at Bowie like Scott, Ramirez and Long.

The O's may have enough talent to build a good pitching staff.

 

I really doubt Castro can be a #3 in any rotation. He will most likely get exposed very quickly. Also, Gausman is still a huge question mark. You literally cannot go into 2018 expecting anything from Kevin Gausman. 

[1968_bills_fan]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

This thread has several comparisons of the Orioles to the NYYs and RS.  A few observations about some of the differences that relate to building a contending team.

1. After the advent of free agency in the 70s, there developed a division between teams that would sign expensive free agents and those that wouldn't, based largely on the amount of revenues the team generated (though there were other factors). That split still exists, especially for the most expensive free agents, but its blurred by the fact that shared revenues means every team has some money to spend on free agents if they want to do that. Today, a bigger difference between high-revenue teams and everyone else, IMO, is that they can be confident of being able to retain their young stars indefinitely if they want to, and can plan on that basis. They can use their MiL prospects in trades if they decide to extend their veterans or sign them as free agents. 

2.  The NYYs and RS will have more MiL, and probably more ML talent, because they draw from a bigger base due to their extensive Latin American operations. Take a look at each team's young stars; that's where many of them come from, without the cost of draft picks or talent. The Orioles do not have a way to bring in that talent, and won't for some time,  aside from other team's discards.

3. The RS can afford to have a couple of down years while they rebuild. Even if the team has a losing season or two, their fans aren't going anywhere. New England baseball fans will still fill Fenway Park, if not to capacity then pretty close. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/rsoxatte.shtmll. Where else are they going to go?  

The NYYs are at a little more risk of losing fans and attendance to the Mets, as happened in the 1980s (and as some predicted would occur this year). The Mets' dysfunctionality and a rash of injuries, together with the NYYs' on-field success, prevented any possibility of that. But even a down year or two won't put much of a dent in baseball's biggest money-maker. There are too many companies, service firms and very rich people who will shell out big dollars for NYY season tickets, and will jump at the opportunity to get better seats if it arises.

By contrast, another string of losing seasons could be disastrous for the Orioles' attendance revenues, especially if the Nats keep winning, as seems likely at the moment. If the Orioles lose fans, especially young fans, to the Nats or other forms of entertainment, I suspect it would take a run as a real contender, not just a WC contender, to bring them back.

4. Although the NYYs floundered for a while, both they and the RS appear to have reasonable plans for building winning teams. The Orioles have elements of planning in place -- you can argue whether those plans are optimal or even good -- but they get disrupted and impeded by moves made by an owner who is (a) committed to winning immediately and apparently doesn't care about the future of the franchise more than two years out, even if the tools for winning now aren't at hand, and (b) weighs the team down by decisions that reflect his ignorance and poor judgment, so that we're stuck with the Davis, Trumbo and O'Day contracts and haven't even pursued an extension with Machado.

That's in large part why we're stuck with a lousy first basemen and DH, don't know who our future 2B and 3B will be, have a CF who really can't play CF any longer, had no SS until we grabbed one from the Rays (and let's see how that works out), and have a bullpen back end with guys who were outstanding but now are so-so. All these guys are untradeable for now, and probably for as long as current ownership is in place -- so we have no trade chips other than our few good prospects. It's tough to build a winner out of that.

 

One of your points is that the RS and NYY have an extra pipeline of extensive Latin American operations?   It sounds true-  is that scouting or teams or farm systems, or academies or ?????

As to the big money, thing- that isn't going away.  But regardless, a team without pitching is fatally flawed and that needs to be fixed.   It is an interesting point that  the NYY and BRS can be more confident about their immediate future because they know their attendance and revenue stream is going to be steady.  So they can rebuild and not have to worry.    Good point.

Once, working in R&D in a big company, we had a new hotshot manager come in and he (one of the few times he was honest) said to stop work on everything that would not be finished in 9 months. He was planning on moving and and up quickly and those things would not help him . (so a number of good projects got dropped and never got picked up again- patents for other companies was one result)   The Orioles seem to have a similar issue- a two year window of okay/success/500 or better ball and the hell with things beyond that.  Either I'm dead (we have an aging owner) or I'm out in a different job.   Will we always be just short of grabbing the gold ring?

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

The roster changes yearly, and in particular, we won't necessarily have Tillman (FA), Ubaldo (FA), Miley ($12M team option), or Hellickson (FA) past this season. Bundy and Gausman are very good pitchers and if they sign and/or promote the correct players to fill that role, the Orioles are a competitive team for 2018. 

So please stop. You could've made this thread after the 2011 season too. Didn't stop us from going to the playoffs in 2012 and going from 69 to 93 wins. Tillman lowered his ERA by three runs, we added Hammel, Gonzalez, and Chen. Team ERA went from last (14th) to 6th.

For a dude who claims to have years of experience with this thing,  you seem to ignore recent cases that go against your sky is falling mentality. Maybe you shouldn't watch the Bills so much.

I guess it hurts your feelings if someone has an opinion about the future of the O's that differes from you?

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

I can see Castro as an effective starter next year- but remember he also got lit up a few times this year.  Gausman, I wouldn't be sure about.   You are right,  a lucky trade (you forgot Rickard),  a magic spell for Tillman and a promotion from the minors might get us back into a come-from-behind contention.  Still it is based more on hope than reality.   

I wouldn't trust Gausman at all. I wish there was better pitching in the minors. Someone ready to come up to Baltimore. So they could trade Kevin G. IMO 

[1968_bills_fan]

2 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I guess it hurts your feelings if someone has an opinion about the future of the O's that differes from you?

Hey !!    Who said that you were the only one allowed to make snarky cracks?  I'm not interested in a flame war. but.........

 

"....For a dude who claims to have years of experience with this thing,  you seem to ignore recent cases that go against your sky is falling mentality. Maybe you shouldn't watch the Bills so much. ....."

[1968_bills_fan]

Just now, Tx Oriole said:

I wouldn't trust Gausman at all. I wish there was better pitching in the minors. Someone ready to come up to Baltimore. So they could trade Kevin G. IMO 

Not really.  Buy low, sell high.  Everybody would kick the tires on him and find a million reasons to low-ball bid on him.  If the price were right-  maybe, but remember that guy who is not pitching for the Cubs?

[Enjoy Terror]

3 hours ago, 1968_bills_fan said:

What happened to those teams that the Orioles "came back" against after 2011?

In 2012, the Red Sox finished in last place, 26 games behind the leader.  Opps.

In 2013 the Yankees Orioles , finished 12 games out of first place.   Opps.

Yet the Rays had 90 wins in 2012 and the Yankees had 95.

Then 2013 the Red Sox had 97 wins and the Rays had 92.

The Orioles didn't "come back" in a struggling division. The AL East has always had competitive teams for the Orioles to over come. You are cherry picking what happened to the Yankees and Red Sox in separate years, so quit with the propaganda. We didn't "luck" into the playoffs in 2012. 93 wins were not gifted to us.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Oh, of course. But he's had 6 years to at least put together a competent rotation. 

There have been a lot of swings and misses since the 2014 squad (Tillman, Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Norris, Gausman).

We actually haven't seen any smart/competent starting pitching acquisitions or trades since then. Essentially 3 full seasons of mediocrity (and worse). 

He hasnt done much but Angelos is the problem. 

 

 

 

 

[Enjoy Terror]

22 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I guess it hurts your feelings if someone has an opinion about the future of the O's that differes from you?

Yeah, when their opinion is based on "fake news".