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So what's the rotation next year?

interloper

By interloper
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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

Posted
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32 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

Roy Firestone stated that an Orioles insider told him that Hunter Harvey could conceivably be pitching in the Orioles' starting rotation by June of 2018, if he gets enough innings in at AA-Bowie in April and May.

 

 http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/25212-updates-on-hunter-harvey/&page=18

o

 

 

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I put very little credence in that opinion. We're talking about a kid with a very live arm but who has never thrown an inning above low A, and only 144 professional innings, and has barely pitched since 2014.    

Overall, there is a tendency for people to believe that our minor leaguers can just skip a bunch of intermediate steps and go right to the majors and be effective players right away. For me, I just want Harvey to get through 2018 with his right arm intact, and if he finishes the year at Bowie having thrown 80-100 effective innings I'll be more than pleased.     

 

o

 

It wasn't Roy's opinion, it was something that was told to him by an Orioles insider.

 

o

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I know. And I believe Roy was told that. I just don't believe the opinion itself is a credible one.

 

o

 

OK, but is it really an opinion?

If you, or I, or Roy said that we could see Harvey being ready for the Major Leagues by such-and-such a date, that would be our rat's ass of an opinion.

If an Orioles insider stated this to Roy, that could be the Orioles themselves with a possible/potential plan for Harvey ...... which would not necessarily be just an opinion, but rather a possible plan, dependent on how well he pitches and looks at AA-Bowie in April and May of 2018.

 

o

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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13 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

OK, but is it really an opinion?

If you, or I, or Roy said that we could see Harvey being ready for the Major Leagues by such-and-such a date, that would be our rat's ass of an opinion.

If an Orioles insider stated this to Roy, that could be the Orioles themselves with a possible/potential plan for Harvey ...... which would not necessarily be just an opinion, but rather a possible plan, dependent on how well he pitches and looks at AA-Bowie in April and May of 2018.

 

o

First of all, we don't know who Roy's source is (I believe he said it was not Jim Palmer).    "Insider" could mean anyone from Dan Duquette (though I doubt it) to Rick Dempsey (whose opinions carry no weight at all with me).     

But second, even assuming it was some front office type person, I would consider it an opinion, not a plan.     I can't imagine the O's going into 2018 believing that there's even a 10% chance that Harvey will be in our rotation in June.

Edit -- I just went back and read Roy's post.    I responded there that in view of how bad our staff was "that might be realistic."    I must have been super-frustrated with the pitching when I wrote that, because I really don't think it's realistic at all.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

First of all, we don't know who Roy's source is (I believe he said it was not Jim Palmer).    "Insider" could mean anyone from Dan Duquette (though I doubt it) to Rick Dempsey (whose opinions carry no weight at all with me).     

But second, even assuming it was some front office type person, I would consider it an opinion, not a plan.     I can't imagine the O's going into 2018 believing that there's even a 10% chance that Harvey will be in our rotation in June.

 

o

 

If it were from an front-office type of person, I would consider that a potential plan. Not a plan that I necessarily think has a good chance to come to fruition, but nonetheless, a potential plan.

And since I don't know who the Orioles insider was that gave this information to Roy, I would not call it either an opinion or a potential plan. I would call it what I did in the first place ....... something/a possibility that Roy was told by an Orioles insider.

 

o

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

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Tillman is being routinely excluded in these discussions, but I do not think he is out of the picture that he gets re-signed to a low cost, make good deal.   And I would not be surprised if they pick up Miley's option and then fill one slot with whichever is the lowest cost of the 4 or 5 free agent retread pitchers out on the market.    And then wait to see if an internal arm steps up by midseason.    I do not think even Dan would re-sign Jimenez.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 minute ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

If it were from an front-office type of person, I would consider that a potential plan. Not a plan that I necessarily think has a good chance to come to fruition, but nonetheless, a potential plan.

And since I don't know who the Orioles insider was that gave this information to Roy, I would not call it either an opinion or a potential plan. I would call it what I did in the first place ....... something/a possibility that Roy was told by an Orioles insider.

 

o

I don't really agree with the distinction between an opinion and a potential plan.  You can't really have a potential plan without having an opinion that it might be viable.     Put it this way, it's my very strong opinion that it won't happen, regardless of what Roy heard.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

But every bit of this and most everything that gets done or doesn't get done personnel-wise this offseason is all going to depend on one thing and one thing only:  "What happens with Manny?"    

 

I think there's a 75% or greater chance that Manny is neither traded nor extended.    I've seen this movie before.    

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tntoriole Hangout Grand Counsel

tntoriole

Posted
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think there's a 75% or greater chance that Manny is neither traded nor extended.    I've seen this movie before.    

I agree with you.   Manny, however,  represents a different level of movie than any of the previous ones.    What is done with Manny will- signed or not signed- in many ways, dictate the direction of the Orioles for the next decade.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree with you.   Manny, however,  represents a different level of movie than any of the previous ones.    What is done with Manny will- signed or not signed- in many ways, dictate the direction of the Orioles for the next decade.  

I've been trying to curb my worry over this.    I love Manny, and I want him signed, but if they don't sign him it doesn't have to be the end of the world, if they use some of the Manny money intelligently elsewhere, continue to draft well, etc.     

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Nevermore All-Star

Nevermore

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I put very little credence in that opinion.     We're talking about a kid with a very live arm but who has never thrown an inning above low A, and only 144 professional innings, and has barely pitched since 2014.    

Overall, there is a tendency for people to believe that our minor leaguers can just skip a bunch of intermediate steps and go right to the majors and be effective players right away.    For me, I just want Harvey to get through 2018 with his right arm intact, and if he finishes the year at Bowie having thrown 80-100 effective innings I'll be more than pleased.    

That's assuming that DD doesn't trade Harvey away for garbage or a rental. I  want DD gone before we choose our 2018 rotation.

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