Henneman: Orioles' Young Players Show Promise, But Not All Are Ready For Big Leagues

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look, I'd be happy to trade Trumbo, but don't you think it's premature to write off the possibility that he could have a much better year next year?    Assuming that 2018 will look just like 2017 is no more valid than it would have been to assume that 2017 would look just like 2016.

I wasn't that impressed with his 2016.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't that impressed with his 2016.

You're a hard man to impress.    I'd be pretty happy if Trumbo just put up career average numbers and stayed out of the outfield except for a handful of games.   That would be a big step up from this year, even if not worth $13 mm.

[Since'54]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look, I'd be happy to trade Trumbo, but don't you think it's premature to write off the possibility that he could have a much better year next year?    Assuming that 2018 will look just like 2017 is no more valid than it would have been to assume that 2017 would look just like 2016.

Well, who wouldn't?  But then,  who'd take him?  If Spring rolls around,  the dafodills sprout, and I'm lucky enough to get to spring training,  I'll be dreaming of a Trumbo-Davis renaissance --  and of a real pitching staff.

But then I'll remember this year and feel even more strongly that a housecleaning is necessary.  I ran out of gas with my Birds about when they ran out of gas themselves

[Can_of_corn]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You're a hard man to impress.    I'd be pretty happy if Trumbo just put up career average numbers and stayed out of the outfield except for a handful of games.   That would be a big step up from this year, even if not worth $13 mm.

He was basically a two win player.  Average isn't impressive.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

I hate to see the O's mortgage the future for a small chance at the 2nd wild card next year.  I would put our chances at less than 10%.  Without major additions and a lot of luck, this is a sub .500 team.  Even with a good free agent starter and bounce backs from hitters and bullpen, this team will be lucky to win 85 games.

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was basically a two win player.  Average isn't impressive.

 

I'd take 2 wins each year on his contract in a heartbeat. Sadly, his defense sucks and this year seems like the norm for him. Hopefully he rebounds. Trumbo and Davis back to back on those contracts are brutal.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Santander didn't play much baseball at all this season. He didn't get into Bowie for his rehab games until over half way thru the season and didn't play much in Baltimore.

He will be in the AFL, but I'm not sure if he will be in a Winter League. Orioles might have him take the winter off to work on stuff and come to Spring Training healthy.

They liked Hays enough to bring him up midway into September. Find a way to get rid of Trumbo and give Hays/Santander a chance in right.

Speaking of Chance, I see him starting the season in Baltimore...But I don't see him starting, or even splitting evenly with Caleb.

[sportsfan8703]

We're just not used to it, but we're probably going to see Hays, Sisco and Santander on the OD roster. With Mullins and Stewart right behind them in AAA. Gentry and Rickard would battle it out for the 4th OF spot  

At this point don't wast money on mid level FA's. Go big on a SP or nothing. The lineup and pen our basically set. Go with the young guys. Extend Manny and Schoop. Try and sign Darvish. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'd take 2 wins each year on his contract in a heartbeat. Sadly, his defense sucks and this year seems like the norm for him. Hopefully he rebounds. Trumbo and Davis back to back on those contracts are brutal.

Sure I would take it.  I was just saying that his 2016 season wasn't impressive unless you really value homeruns.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure I would take it.  I was just saying that his 2016 season wasn't impressive unless you really value homeruns.

47 HR = impressive

108 RBI = impressive

.533 SLG = impressive

.850 OPS = impressive

2.7 oWAR = impressive

Defense = extremely unimpressive 

 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

You might find RBIs impressive but I group them with saves and pitching wins.

The number has to get extremely high for me to pay attention.

Overall he had a pretty average season.  He had no value on the basepaths, he didn't get on base at a particularly high rate and his defense was atrocious.

I'm not saying the O's didn't get good value out of his contract in 2016 but I wouldn't rate his performance as impressive unless you are a big fan of home runs.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You might find RBIs impressive but I group them with saves and pitching wins.

The number has to get extremely high for me to pay attention.

For me, whether an RBI total is impressive depends on the circumstances.    In this case, per BB-ref:

667 PA

Average runners on base: 397 (200-129-67)

Trumbo's runners on base: 396 (211-116-69)

Average RBI total: 75

Trumbo's RBI total: 108

That's impressive enough for me.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

For me, whether an RBI total is impressive depends on the circumstances.    In this case, per BB-ref:

667 PA

Average runners on base: 397 (200-129-67)

Trumbo's runners on base: 396 (211-116-69)

Average RBI total: 75

Trumbo's RBI total: 108

That's impressive enough for me.

 

So random chance is impressive to you?

You don't think Trumbo had extra skill and ability to hit with runners on last year do you?

Last year he hit 313/378/631 with men on base.

This year he hit 206/255/335 with men on base.

For his career he has hit 252/304/478 with men on base. 

For his career he has hit 249/301/461 overall.

It was a one year fluctuation.

[Il BuonO]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So random chance is impressive to you?

You don't think Trumbo had extra skill and ability to hit with runners on last year do you?

Last year he hit 313/378/631 with men on base.

This year he hit 206/255/335 with men on base.

For his career he has hit 252/304/478 with men on base. 

For his career he has hit 249/301/461 overall.

It was a one year fluctuation.

Yes, yes, but shouldn’t he be paid for that??? 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So random chance is impressive to you?

You don't think Trumbo had extra skill and ability to hit with runners on last year do you?

Last year he hit 313/378/631 with men on base.

This year he hit 206/255/335 with men on base.

For his career he has hit 252/304/478 with men on base. 

For his career he has hit 249/301/461 overall.

It was a one year fluctuation.

We are just parsing words here.    Nobody expected Trumbo to repeat his HR total or his RISP hitting success in 2017.   If you don't think that somebody having a good year in those respects makes the year "impressive" because it's not likely to be repeated, fine.   I give a guy credit for coming through in clutch situations whether or not it will happen again, if what I'm doing is judging the year the guy had.