Orioles to take another shot at extending Machado per Roch

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe I misread or misunderstood.  We agree, I think. Manny will do 10/300 or better.

Sorry if I was unclear.   I meant that if Manny got $300 mm+, the deal would cover more than 8 seasons.    I wasn’t saying Manny would need to wait 8 years to get a $300 mm deal.

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sorry if I was unclear.   I meant that if Manny got $300 mm+, the deal would cover more than 8 seasons.    I wasn’t saying Manny would need to wait 8 years to get a $300 mm deal.

I think any deal for Manny is going to be 10 years or more in the first place.

[esmd]

I think the O's will make an earnest effort to sign him to an extension, I don't think it's just for show.  However, their earnest effort will be to sign him to a deal that's not crippling to the team, and likely far less than he'll command on the open market.  Therefore I expect him to decline to sign an extension and hit the open market.  Hopefully they wise up and trade him now, or at least in July.  But my guess is they'll just throw all their chips in and go for it this year (though it remains to be seen how many chips they devote to really fixing the starting pitching).  Then Manny will walk and we'll get a measly draft pick in return.  Should've traded him last July IMO, but that ship has sailed.

[esmd]

Manny is getting 10/300 with a 5 year opt out, IMO.  Maybe more.  My guess is the O's will offer him a 5-7 year deal with an AAV of 23-25 million, and try to convince him that he'll still be young enough and in his prime to cash in again at the end of the deal, in lieu of getting that 10/300 deal that is likely to be somewhat backloaded with the 5 year opt out.  So if he signed a deal with O's, he'd make almost as much money as he would with the front end of the 10/300 FA deal, BUT, he's taking on a lot of risk in not getting the guaranteed back end with the benefit of the opt out.  That's why I think he turns it down. 

[Yardball85]

38 minutes ago, esmd said:

Manny is getting 10/300 with a 5 year opt out, IMO.  Maybe more.  My guess is the O's will offer him a 5-7 year deal with an AAV of 23-25 million, and try to convince him that he'll still be young enough and in his prime to cash in again at the end of the deal, in lieu of getting that 10/300 deal that is likely to be somewhat backloaded with the 5 year opt out.  So if he signed a deal with O's, he'd make almost as much money as he would with the front end of the 10/300 FA deal, BUT, he's taking on a lot of risk in not getting the guaranteed back end with the benefit of the opt out.  That's why I think he turns it down. 

I hope not, that would be a terrible low-ball offer.  Chris Davis essentially got 7 years at $25M per season.  I am fine with including an opt out, and would offer up to $30M a season to keep him here.

[Redskins Rick]

[Es4M11]

1 hour ago, esmd said:

Manny is getting 10/300 with a 5 year opt out, IMO.  Maybe more.  My guess is the O's will offer him a 5-7 year deal with an AAV of 23-25 million, and try to convince him that he'll still be young enough and in his prime to cash in again at the end of the deal, in lieu of getting that 10/300 deal that is likely to be somewhat backloaded with the 5 year opt out.  So if he signed a deal with O's, he'd make almost as much money as he would with the front end of the 10/300 FA deal, BUT, he's taking on a lot of risk in not getting the guaranteed back end with the benefit of the opt out.  That's why I think he turns it down. 

I tend to agree with this. I think the O's will be in the right ball park as far as AAV goes, but won't offer enough years or an opt out.

I think a 10y/300m w/  opt out after 5y makes sense for everyone.

[Redskins Rick]

I do not see DD or Angelos offering an OPT out clause, they are both dead set against them.

I know Castillo got one, and that shocked me.

[Es4M11]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I do not see DD or Angelos offering an OPT out clause, they are both dead set against them.

I know Castillo got one, and that shocked me.

I think you're right. Especially with the amount of money that's being talked about.

Castillo was not a lot of money and was always intended to be a stop gap.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Es4M11 said:

I think you're right. Especially with the amount of money that's being talked about.

DD has talked about it numerous times in interviews, they said OPT outs only aid the player and never the team.

[Es4M11]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

DD has talked about it numerous times in interviews, they said OPT outs only aid the player and never the team.

I think in this case it could be beneficial for the club. The Orioles would get all of Machado's expected physical prime, and if he plays well enough to opt they get off the hook for paying for the decline. Not to mention the fact if Machado plays well enough to opt out he most likely provided significant surplus value on his first 5 years of salary. If Machado doesn't opt out, it' a moot point.

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I do not see DD or Angelos offering an OPT out clause, they are both dead set against them.

I know Castillo got one, and that shocked me.

Beef didn't get an opt out, it was a player option.  Totally different.

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Beef didn't get an opt out, it was a player option.  Totally different.

Sarcasm alert. 

The difference on Castillo was it was for a second year to a 1-year deal at $7 million.  Any opt-out for Manny would be for a considerably longer term and exponentially more money.  I think that pretty much rules it out for Angelos.

[Tx Oriole]

20 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Look I think most here and all experts believe the O's can't compete in 2018, just not enough pitching available to fill the holes in the O's rotation

So trade Manny for starting pitching prospects, and sign him as a FA for 2019.

Why can't that be the solution?

Can be as far as I am concerned.

[Tx Oriole]

10 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Good Trades

Miranda for Miley didn't work out as hoped, but that was great value for Miranda who wasn't much of anything.

Jones for Brach, pretty fair trade at the time, worked out well for the Orioles obviously

Tobias Myers for Beckham may or may not be a great trade, but again great value getting an average MLB SS for a guy who has thrown 30 short season innings and doesn't have wow stuff.

Gallardo for Smith was good value and worked out pretty well.

Cleavinger for Trumbo was good value and worked out well, it would have worked out better if they didn't resign Davis and then didn't resign Trumbo, but that doesn't take away from the trade.

E Rod. for Miller was an example of a good deadline acquisition, you don't get something for nothing 

 

Bad Trades

Davies for Parra, anyone who has ever looked at advanced stats knew Parra was due for a huge regression

Kim, Cleavinger, and slot money for Hellickson, not big consequences but not a smart trade and pretty obviously not a smart trade IMO

Tarpley, Brault for Snider worked out badly, but it made sense at the time, Brault turned into something but was the secondary piece in the deal.

Hader+ for Norris was pretty fair at the time, this is pretty neutral to me.

There are a bunch of other small ones, that weren't of much importance.  I thought Lino for Thome wasn't good, and Heim for Pearce was good but none of the players in either deal did much. De Aza and Bourn trades were ok.

 

That's not a bad record IMO, I'd trust Duquette to sell assets.

Maybe so but Angelos is the fly in the ointment. I wish for better ownership and a better GM.