My 25-man roster prediction (as of 3/7/18)

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I would think the O's have language in the Tillman's contract for non performance.

We don’t know for sure, but the reporting has been that Tillman’s $3 mm is guaranteed.    And it’s my understanding that many FA contracts have “guarantee” language in them that negates the ability to avoid salary commitments by cutting the player during spring training.    I believe that’s the case with Tillman.    Still, if he looked no better than last year I’d expect them to cut him.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would think the O's have language in the Tillman's contract for non performance.

I'm not sure that is allowed.

I've never heard a a major league deal with that kind of language.

[interloper]

Cortes' performance today and his appearance in a game against a divisional opponent supports my theory that I think he destined to be the long man out of the pen with Wright (so far) in the rotation. The O's could go with 5 hard throwing righties in the rotation and bring in the soft-tossing lefty Cortes to switch things up. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure that is allowed.

I've never heard a a major league deal with that kind of language.

I think you are wrong, and that the standard player contract provides that the player can be cut before the end of spring training and receive only 45 days’ pay.     But that language is frequently negated by special clauses added to free agent contracts.    

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are wrong, and that the standard player contract provides that the player can be cut before the end of spring training and receive only 45 days’ pay.     But that language is frequently negated by special clauses added to free agent contracts.    

Pretty sure I am right and what you are suggesting only applies to minor league contracts, split contracts and players who are still in the arbitration window.

[Luke-OH]

52 minutes ago, interloper said:

Cortes' performance today and his appearance in a game against a divisional opponent supports my theory that I think he destined to be the long man out of the pen with Wright (so far) in the rotation. The O's could go with 5 hard throwing righties in the rotation and bring in the soft-tossing lefty Cortes to switch things up. 

I think Cortes has the upper hand due to the hand he throws with.

I think the back and forth “competition” narrative that beat writers try and create is somewhat disingenuous (whether the writers realize it or not). The O’s brass is looking for certain things from each of the candidate pitchers, and those things can’t be results based for the most part because a few innings of spring training results means literally nothing as far as future performance and true talent level.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I think Cortes has the upper hand due to the hand he throws with.

I think the back and forth “competition” narrative that beat writers try and create is somewhat disingenuous (whether the writers realize it or not). The O’s brass is looking for certain things from each of the candidate pitchers, and those things can’t be results based for the most part because a few innings of spring training results means literally nothing as far as future performance and true talent level.

Agree, but when it comes to a 23-yr old rookie, I feel like they're looking at results a little more. Today he couldn't hold the Jays B-squad down at home (although neither could anyone else we put on the mound today), and I just have the feeling they're going to trend towards ML experience with Wright, while getting Cortes' feet wet in the bullpen. 

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, interloper said:

Agree, but when it comes to a 23-yr old rookie, I feel like they're looking at results a little more. Today he couldn't hold the Jays B-squad down at home (although neither could anyone else we put on the mound today), and I just have the feeling they're going to trend towards ML experience with Wright, while getting Cortes' feet wet in the bullpen. 

If you do want to look at today’s results, he was only hurt on balls in play, no HR, no walks. Of the balls in play, he had a 61.5% GB rate. BABIP is a fickle mistress. His BABIP for the outing was .462.

edit: he did allow too many balls in play, you want to see more Ks, less pitching to contact.

[interloper]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

If you do want to look at today’s results, he was only hurt on balls in play, no HR, no walks. Of the balls in play, he had a 61.5% GB rate. BABIP is a fickle mistress. His BABIP for the outing was .462.

Fair enough, that's true. You have to like the lack of walks and the ground balls. 

It's been a pretty ugly/unlucky/bad defense kind of game for the O's today all around. I would hope Buck sorta gives him a pass on it.

[Ruzious]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is why you include team options, to lessen the risk.

Or you can wait until he's an Arb 2 coming off a career year to talk extension, AKA the Schoop plan.

 

Sure the team is taking a risk locking up guys long term, but the current model they are using doesn't seem to be working.

Let's think the team options idea through - because you might be right there - I gotta think through the logic.  Would the player say - No frikkin way to it?  Maybe not, because if the team opts out, the player gets free agency - presumably a benefit to the player.  And as you say, it limits the risk for the team.  Hmm, you're starting to convince me.  My instincts say your idea is nuts - wait a least another year, but my logic center - such as it is -  probably missing some parts - is agreeing with you.          

[wildcard]

Wright and Castro took a step forward today in their effort to win the #5 starter job.  And they did not have to throw a pitch.   Because Cortes took a step backwards.

[wildcard]

Also if Rasmus' hip is so bad he can't run to the foul line to catch a fly ball than maybe he does not get his minor league contract converted.

Pedro does not know how to run the bases.   Wojo can be sent down now.

Good things  that happen today:

Susac threw out a runner on the bases and hit a homer.

Santander made a diving catch and actually acted like he want to play the game.   Refreshing

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure I am right and what you are suggesting only applies to minor league contracts, split contracts and players who are still in the arbitration window.

OK, now I think you’re right: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/guaranteed-contract

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

OK, now I think you’re right: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/guaranteed-contract

I may have already read that. 

[bobmc]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wright and Castro took a step forward today in their effort to win the #5 starter job.  And they did not have to throw a pitch.   Because Cortes took a step backwards.

Or in Buck speak:

Rule 5 left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. allowed three runs and six hits in three innings to raise his spring ERA to 6.43 in three starts. Manager Buck Showalter didn’t hammer him in his postgame session with the media.

“I thought his changeup got a little better as he went,” Showalter said. “Got fisted a couple times on some balls that didn’t quite get in there far enough. A couple wind-blown things. Great hitter’s day today. Everything’s flying.

“Some things to like. You can see why he’s had some success. You asked yourself, ‘OK, if the lights were on and the wind’s not blowing and people are aggressive.’ You’ve got to be careful about putting too much in spring training, but where he’s concerned that’s kind of what you’re going by.”

Cortes needs to be precise with his pitches “and he’s trying,” Showalter said.

“He’s not in midseason form, but he came in in good shape and ready to go. This is a club they brought over here with a split-squad that’s hacking and moving the ball a little bit. You try to put everything you get into perspective. I think he’s going to throw it over, I think he’s going to bring a lot of other things. Just whether or not his stuff and the repertoire he has is going to play.”

Cortes knows what’s at stake with one spot open in the rotation. He can’t let it weigh him down and influence his performance, but Showalter wants the importance to stick with him.

“I want it to because that’s the way it is up here,” Showalter said. “This isn’t instructional league. This is the major leagues and you’re trying to take people who can help you win baseball games. This is trying to take the 12 best pitchers. That’s one of the challenges of the Rule 5 draft.”

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/03/wrapping-up-a-9-3-loss.html