Trey Mancini: Role Player or Star?

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

New article up.

Great stuff Luke.

Mancini has maxed his potential because of his ability to make adjustments and his intelligence at the plate in knowing what pitchers are trying to do with him. I like his chances of staying at this level of production with some key years where he'll be even better. 

[Diehard_O's_Fan]

I agree with you 100% Tony. I am also very impressed with how Trey has been willing to learn to play LF and how he is holding his own out there. I look for him to be a much better left fielder this year after his experience last season. I am glad Trumbo is on the team because I would hate to see a young guy like Trey being our DH. People need to keep that in mind.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Well, he just made a great diving play at first.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Well, he just made a great diving play at first.

I'm not watching.  Was it a great play or a play that Mullins would make standing up?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not watching.  Was it a great play or a play that Mullins would make standing up?

Was a great play. Bases loaded, ball smoked up the line near the bag.  Mancini dove and got the grounder. Saved 2 runs (at the time) and got an out.

By the way, Mancini is at first, not in left today. Not sure how good of a first baseman Mullins is...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Was a great play. Bases loaded, ball smoked up the line near the bag.  Mancini dove and got the grounder. Saved 2 runs (at the time) and got an out.

By the way, Mancini is at first, not in left today. Not sure how good of a first baseman Mullins is...

Like I said, not watching the game.

[bpilktree]

2 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Trumbo and he swung at a nearly identical rate at balls outside the strike zone, Mancini slightly higher. Trumbo has more power, less batting average. I think it's quite a good comp for future value. Above average bat for COF, but below average defense. Likely average defense at 1B, but also average offense. The total package being around league average. That's what prime Trumbo was.

Trumbo is a a .250 ish hitter for his career.  He has never hit over .268 and rarely walks.  His highest OBP in his career is .317.    He has 4 seasons in which he has had a lower 0BP then Trey's batting average last year.  Trumbo looks like he has no idea how to play the field and is afraid of the wall while although Trey is not the most athletic guy out there and wont get to some balls better defenders with speed would get to, he at least knows how to judge a flyball and looks somewhat comfortable in catching it.  The only comparison i see from Trey and Trumbo is they play for the Orioles were first baseman that moved to the outfield and are bigger guys.  

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Bad plate discipline, and below average defense are why he probably won't be able to do that.

Also, referencing 5 WAR seasons as "all he topped out at" is strange. 5 WAR is nothing short of excellent. I'd put the odds of Mancini having any 5 win seasons as extremely unlikely.

The three times Werth had a 5+ fWAR, his OBP was .363, .388 and .394.   I don’t forsee Mancini ever approaching that.

[sportsfan8703]

Mancini is leading off today as well. 

[bpilktree]

I think the best comps are Jason Bay though Bay walked more maybe partly because the pirates were terrible back then and he was the only guy they had that was any good in the lineup.

 

I think a better comp is Hunter Pence.  Pence has been a pretty consistant player over his career hitting in and getting on base.  He had that crazy 2011 season where he put up big numbers but for th most part has been a guy that hits around.280 with OBP around .330 and OPS around the low .800s.  Pence has a little more speed and steals some bases but mostly when people are not paying attention.  He is a full throtle guy on the field and hustles all the time which i see in Trey as well.  Both guys are listed at 6'4 and around 220 as well.  Pence has been an outfielder the entire time so looks little more comfortable but still he is not a great defender.

[Babypowder]

21 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Trumbo is a a .250 ish hitter for his career.  He has never hit over .268 and rarely walks.  His highest OBP in his career is .317.    He has 4 seasons in which he has had a lower 0BP then Trey's batting average last year.  Trumbo looks like he has no idea how to play the field and is afraid of the wall while although Trey is not the most athletic guy out there and wont get to some balls better defenders with speed would get to, he at least knows how to judge a flyball and looks somewhat comfortable in catching it.  The only comparison i see from Trey and Trumbo is they play for the Orioles were first baseman that moved to the outfield and are bigger guys.  

Yes, they are different hitters. The overall value is similar though, that is why it's a good comp. I expect Mancini to be around a 110 wRC+ for most of his controllable years, which is about what you would have expected from Mark Trumbo is his mid to late 20s. Mancini will hit for higher averages, probably walk slightly less, and hit for less power. He'll probably be a little better in the field but his ceiling is pretty low there and I doubt he will ever be average. The total package is around a league average player. There's nothing wrong with that, and it's quite valuable while it is cheap. However, when it isn't cheap anymore you let it walk, not sign it to 3 year extensions.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, bpilktree said:

I think the best comps are Jason Bay though Bay walked more maybe partly because the pirates were terrible back then and he was the only guy they had that was any good in the lineup.

 

I think a better comp is Hunter Pence.  Pence has been a pretty consistant player over his career hitting in and getting on base.  He had that crazy 2011 season where he put up big numbers but for th most part has been a guy that hits around.280 with OBP around .330 and OPS around the low .800s.  Pence has a little more speed and steals some bases but mostly when people are not paying attention.  He is a full throtle guy on the field and hustles all the time which i see in Trey as well.  Both guys are listed at 6'4 and around 220 as well.  Pence has been an outfielder the entire time so looks little more comfortable but still he is not a great defender.

Just to be clear, I chose my comps not on similarity of offensive and defensive profile, but by age of debut and offensive production level in that debut. 

Pence and Bay are good comps as far a overall profile as a player (although they are both examples of very optimistic comps), but both hit notably better than Mancini in their rookie seasons so that’s why they aren’t included.

 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

I mean Werth is listed as a comp for him in the article. 

Werth didn't get to over 2 oWAR until his 6th season in the league. Trey did it in his second. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don't see why Trey can't have a few 5 WAR seasons in him, which is all that Werth topped out at. 

Remember in the article I wrote that Werth is an optimistic comp for Mancini, and I also said that because of defensive differences, Mancini wouldn’t be as valuable of a player as Werth even if he achieved what he did offensively.

[Beef Supreme]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I know we're in an era of historically high Ks and relatively low walks, but in what world is 33 walks in a full season and a 4.2:1 K:BB ratio good plate discipline?

Trumbo has a better K:BB ratio in his career than Mancini.  Even last year when Trumbo was miserable he walked in 6.9% of plate appearances compared to Mancini's 5.6%.

Right now Mancini's advantage over a younger Trumbo looks like it's just batting average.

And On Base Percentage. And outfield defense. Just those three.

Trumpbo has collected fewer than 33 walks in two of his seven seasons as well as two years of 36 walks. Not exactly the poster child for plate discipline himself.

What's younger Trumpbo's advantage over Mancini besides a marginally better K:BB ratio? I see none. Big whoop that his K:BB is better when he has a significantly lower OBP in every one of his seven seasons than what Mancini has put up. Higher OPB negates whatever the value of K/BB might be. Younger Trumpbo showed no advantage in any way over who Mancini has been thus far. At best, Y.T. is comparable to Mancini.

[interloper]

Today was a great example of why Trumbo is a poor comp for Mancini. They swung at basically the same pitches, but the difference is Mancini can reach the ones he swings at because his bat speed is good and his plate coverage is frankly monstrous. Foul balls are struck with authority and the AB is extended, giving him a better chance to get on base or see a better pitch.

Meanwhile those are pitches that Trumbo whiffs on. He has one bat path and almost no ability to have a defensive swing to prolong an AB.