Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[Aglets]

The Orioles have had a habit of outperforming projections though, basically every year since 2012 until last year.   I'd be curious to see some historical 538 projections for us.

[nadecir]

One of the reasons it may be difficult for the Orioles to make the playoffs in 2018 is how poor the AL Central is projected to be this season.  538 predicts 70 wins for the Royals and White Sox, and 68 wins for the Tigers.  The Twins will benefit immensely if these projections are even close.
=====

Rebuild alert: Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals. One of the big reasons that Cleveland is such a strong favorite in this division — and why the Twins can be optimistic, too — is that the Central is home to numerous, um, “rebuilding” efforts. The White Sox have been engaging in one of the most extreme multi-year teardowns ever and probably won’t begin to emerge from it until next season. The Tigers finally admitted to themselves that their early-2010s heyday was over and became sellers at last year’s trade deadline. The Royals are just now embarking on a reboot of their own. This division might be formidable in several years as a result of the tank-fest, but for now it contains a bunch of teams that aren’t even trying to compete.

[Yardball85]

20 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Did you think they would win the AL East in 2014?

Did the Yankees have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorious in 2014?

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Did the Yankees have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorious in 2014?

No, they had Teixeira, Jeter, Beltran and McCann.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

To win 90 games a team has to outscore the opposition by ~75 runs.  At least without some bullpen magic or other weirdness.  Last year they were underwater by about 100.  They need to be about +175, give or take, to really contend.  That's a pretty steep order. 

Biggest year-to-year improvements in run differential in modern Oriole history:

1989, 261
1969, 180
1992, 159
2012, 159
1979, 149
1960, 146
1957, 143

And the biggest drops:
1981, -173
2000, -155
1974, -146
1984, -133
1962, -131
2017, -127

 

What I find interesting (and worrisome) about these two lists is that you don’t see any instance where a big drop was followed by a big gain the next season.     

[Can_of_corn]

48 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I think Nate Silver is a hack, but I agree with his conclusion. At least, there should be a fire sale if they’re out early.

Careful, whenever I have criticized Mr Silver I've had to deal with angry PMs.

As to his competence, it is remarkable how much his accuracy dropped when he no longer had access to propriety polling data.

[Il BuonO]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Careful, whenever I have criticized Mr Silver I've had to deal with angry PMs.

As to his competence, it is remarkable how much his accuracy dropped when he no longer had access to propriety polling data.

Well, sure, but what’s a little data here or there?

[weams]

39 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Well, sure, but what’s a little data here or there?

 

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

No, they had Teixeira, Jeter, Beltran and McCann.

Yeah.  Who at that point in their careers were far inferior to Judge, Sanchez, Stanton, Didi though.

 

[Nite]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Orioles were 12-13 in games Ubaldo started last year.  I doubt that they'll be 22-3 in games that Cobb starts.

They were 15-17 in Wade Miley's starts. The Rays were 15-14 when Cobb started.

Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense.  Defense is about 70/30 split between pitching and fielding.  Starters cover about 60% of innings, so they're (in rough terms) 60% of 70% of 50%.  It's a team game.

By better I don't necessarily mean just direct win in that game. I don't think the'll be 22-3 either, but what about 18-8 assuming the same run support? Then the less bull pen work so there is another game or two in a two week span that doesn't get blown. Every little thing over the course of a marathon season can add up. Add up enough small parts and you get upwards of 20 more wins...

[Nite]

1 hour ago, weams said:

 

So tempted to scrape my cash together...

[Nite]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What I find interesting (and worrisome) about these two lists is that you don’t see any instance where a big drop was followed by a big gain the next season.     

But what big drop was followed by 2 and possibly 3 fifths of the rotation being changed out for very clear cut upgrades. Injuries happen yes, but assuming health the Starters ERA for 2/5th of them will drop 2 runs a game... Using very fast math that is estimating everything we're talking about 50 less runs given up from this alone. That is assuming both pitch to a combined 4.5 over 300 innings. If they pitch to a 4 or better that's 25 more. So 75 runs right off the top from two starters. If Tillman or whoever has that spot also pitches to a 4.5 over 100 innings that's 25 more saved from that slot.

 

Now what if Machado doesn't fall asleep for the first half? The fact is so many people under-performed SO BAD last year that literally playing to career norms should generate a 125 + increase in the run differential this year... That's just factoring 3 starters and Machado...

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Nite said:

But what big drop was followed by 2 and possibly 3 fifths of the rotation being changed out for very clear cut upgrades. Injuries happen yes, but assuming health the Starters ERA for 2/5th of them will drop 2 runs a game... Using very fast math that is estimating everything we're talking about 50 less runs given up from this alone. That is assuming both pitch to a combined 4.5 over 300 innings. If they pitch to a 4 or better that's 25 more. So 75 runs right off the top from two starters. If Tillman or whoever has that spot also pitches to a 4.5 over 100 innings that's 25 more saved from that slot.

 

Now what if Machado doesn't fall asleep for the first half? The fact is so many people under-performed SO BAD last year that literally playing to career norms should generate a 125 + increase in the run differential this year... That's just factoring 3 starters and Machado...

I wouldn't call Cashner a very clear upgrade just yet.

I will say Cobb is an improvement.

[Frobby]

Just now, Nite said:

But what big drop was followed by 2 and possibly 3 fifths of the rotation being changed out for very clear cut upgrades. Injuries happen yes, but assuming health the Starters ERA for 2/5th of them will drop 2 runs a game... Using very fast math that is estimating everything we're talking about 50 less runs given up from this alone. That is assuming both pitch to a combined 4.5 over 300 innings. If they pitch to a 4 or better that's 25 more. So 75 runs right off the top from two starters. If Tillman or whoever has that spot also pitches to a 4.5 over 100 innings that's 25 more saved from that slot.

 

Now what if Machado doesn't fall asleep for the first half? The fact is so many people under-performed SO BAD last year that literally playing to career norms should generate a 125 + increase in the run differential this year... That's just factoring 3 starters and Machado...

I do, in fact, expect the pitching to be much better this year.     I’m not that sanguine about the offense.   Despite all the inconsistencies during the season, from year to year the O’s offense hasn’t fluctuated a whole lot.    During Buck’s years, they’ve scored 708, 712, 745, 705, 713, 744 and 743 runs.    I have every reason to think they’ll be in that same range this year.      

[jamalshw]

19 minutes ago, Nite said:

So tempted to scrape my cash together...

Not going to lie...I've got some investment in a long shot pick. Admittedly, not much, but...with those long of odds, it'll be a nice little bonus if the O's have a Cinderella season.