Chris Davis has a problem with velocity.

[OsEatAlEast]

2 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Truly a hopeless situation here. Needed to exchange salary dumps this offseason while there was still a tiny tiny glimmer of hope Davis might rebound even slightly, but now that delusion is gone. Just need to bench him against all lefties (LOL at starting him against Sale) and against all hard throwing righties.

But of course Buck will run him out there every game and in the middle of the order.

Unfortunately for us there is just too much money on the line for that scenario. If I were the O's I would do everything I could to get his reaction time and or bat speed back to normal. Within reason and legality that is.

[pastorfan]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's never looked like he's had a fast bat to me.  Like Raffy had that long, looping swing.  Davis has that swing where it looks slow and easy when he misses (which is ALL THE TIME NOW) but beautiful, fluid and effortless when he happens to square one up.

I would like to see bat speed data measured in MPH from his big homer seasons to where he is now.  

He has never had great bat speed. Look at a few home runs from a few years ago and you can see the major difference is mental. Right now he is not getting his weight back and ready to swing in time. I believe it is primarily mental:

 

[drjohnnyfeva]

I don't think h'e picking up the ball.  He clearly saw the ball on the early videos and was able to compensate with a quick bat to get many of those HR's.  The bat speed has clearly diminished.  The newer videos seem to show him focusing on a spot where he "thinks" the ball is going to be, rather than attacking the ball.  IDK.  I think it really might be vision.  He also had a little more bat movement in the earlier video.  By 2017 he was almost totally stationary in the box.  Doesn't a little movement help with timing?  I'm leaning toward vision and diminished reaction with what I see.  His swing is definitely more looongg and slow thru the box today than it was.

This is an excellent analysis.  Thanks for your work, Luke-OH.

[Tx Oriole]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I've talked about this a bit in multiple threads, and it started with my eyes telling me that Chris Davis has lost bat speed and now has a slider speed bat.

I've dabbled with some data to back it up, but I've been getting more familiar with the Baseball Savant search function and then exporting and manipulating that data.

Here is the most conclusive results-based evidence supporting my initial hypothesis.

 

260 players saw 500 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 92mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .352

Chris Davis was tied for 256th with a wOBA of .265

That is 1.8 standard deviations below the mean.

 

So that seems like pretty solid evidence, but wait, I'm not done.

 

216 players saw 200 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 95mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .329

Chris Davis was dead last by a fairly wide margin with a wOBA of .135

That is 2.8 standard deviations below the mean.

It's also absolutely terrible.

 

Davis has problems besides velocity. 

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

For comparison, in 2014 which was a really bad year for Chris Davis.

He was .260 wOBA against 95+

And was .329 against 92+

So this is not just a when he's struggling thing, it's a decline for one reason or another.

Maybe it's just he's done? 

[mdbdotcom]

Ever since Chris Davis started making babies, everything else just slowed down. Same thing happened with Wieters.

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

And with this overwhelming data.... what are the O's going to do

They need invent him an injury that would allow for a very long rehab assignment.

If he can't get back his bat speed he needs to be DFA'd to reduce the damage he is doing to the 25/40 man rosters

I wonder if these guys ever feel guilt? To be paid 160 million dollars to be the absolute worst of your profession.

Maybe he could write at least an 80 million dollar check to some charity(s) in the city of Baltimore.

I am sure it must bother him. Would you give back money if you messed up at your job? 

[eddie83]

Curious. 

What is Chris’ contract to damage ratio???

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

I am sure it must bother him. Would you give back money if you messed up at your job? 

I like 99% of folks don't have a guaranteed contract. If I performed my job as poorly as Davis relative to my peers I'd be fired.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I've talked about this a bit in multiple threads, and it started with my eyes telling me that Chris Davis has lost bat speed and now has a slider speed bat.

I've dabbled with some data to back it up, but I've been getting more familiar with the Baseball Savant search function and then exporting and manipulating that data.

Here is the most conclusive results-based evidence supporting my initial hypothesis.

 

260 players saw 500 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 92mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .352

Chris Davis was tied for 256th with a wOBA of .265

That is 1.8 standard deviations below the mean.

 

So that seems like pretty solid evidence, but wait, I'm not done.

 

216 players saw 200 or more Fastballs (of any variety) in 2017 and 2018 of 95mph or greater.

Of those players, the average wOBA against that criteria of pitch was .329

Chris Davis was dead last by a fairly wide margin with a wOBA of .135

That is 2.8 standard deviations below the mean.

It's also absolutely terrible.

 

I got to thinking about this.   How can you have a wOBA on a specific type of pitch?    If you swing and miss twice at curve balls and then strike out on a 95 mph fastball, does the third pitch get all the credit?    Same thing on walks.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I got to thinking about this.   How can you have a wOBA on a specific type of pitch?    If you swing and miss twice at curve balls and then strike out on a 95 mph fastball, does the third pitch get all the credit?    Same thing on walks.

Yes, it's based off results of the action pitch.

[Tx Oriole]

20 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I like 99% of folks don't have a guaranteed contract. If I performed my job as poorly as Davis relative to my peers I'd be fired.

You have a good point. 

[atomic]

Does Chris Davis have a chance of having worse single season WAR of all time?  

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Does Chris Davis have a chance of having worse single season WAR of all time?  

Gotta believe if he gets 500 AB's he's a stone cold lock

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, atomic said:

Does Chris Davis have a chance of having worse single season WAR of all time?  

Position players the bar is -4.0 fWAR

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=22,a

Pitcher record is -2.2 fWAR.  Tillman would have a shot if he got 30 starts.