What are the odds that the O’s climb back to .500 at any point this year?

[Finisher]

They'll get better once Cobb returns to form. A LOT is going wrong all at once. Need to thank Tillman for his career service and cut him loose. DFA Wright. They cannot compound the Tillman mistake by continuing to trot him out there. It's not fair to the rest of the players. This Cleveland series doesn't look promising though; facing four young stud arms.

[theobird]

I went 30-49% just because this is baseball we are talking about. They could right the ship, but the team just was never that good to be a realistic contender, even if they had not started out in this hole. I would say reaching .500 would be a huge accomplishment at this point, but I could see it happening.

[Morgan423]

Realistically I think it's less than 30%.  

But best case is for us to plod around at a .500ish level the next couple of months, so that by the time we get to early June at 15 games under, there's no hemming and hawing regarding blowing it up and trading the players we need to trade.   

So given how the Orioles like to fail on the largest levels possible, I would be totally unsurprised if the team tore their way back to .500 over this home stand, then proceeded to play just well enough to keep us from making moves.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

We've been under .500 since the third week of May last year

Why would anyone think we can play 9 games over .500 for any stretch?

0% this team sees .500 in 2018

Because they were 27-17 from July 17 to September 1 last year?

[Natty]

Since last year on May 10,  the Orioles are 58 wins 90 losses. 

That's a .392 winning percentge. 32 games under .500.

This can't be right someone please correct my math...

 

[drjohnnyfeva]

 i went with 30-49 because I do think they will be streaky.  If they put a good one together they might briefly go over .500.  It won't last, tho.  They are clearly a sub .500 team.  Maddening because the starters might wind up being decent to the point we'll regret not having a similar group for the past two years.  Money constraints don't always allow that...

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

 i went with 30-49 because I do think they will be streaky.  If they put a good one together they might briefly go over .500.  It won't last, tho.  They are clearly a sub .500 team.  Maddening because the starters might wind up being decent to the point we'll regret not having a similar group for the past two years.  Money constraints don't always allow that...

I’d go with 30-49 too, though I’d be at the very bottom of that range.

For a bit of perspective, the Blue Jays started 5-14 last year, and clawed their way back to one game under .500 on five separate occasions, but could never get over the hump, and finally succumbed and ended up 10 games under.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’d go with 30-49 too, though I’d be at the very bottom of that range.

For a bit of perspective, the Blue Jays started 5-14 last year, and clawed their way back to one game under .500 on five separate occasions, but could never get over the hump, and finally succumbed and ended up 10 games under.

I thought this was a team likely to be under 500 before the season and just don't see them putting up a +9 win run from where they are now.

[LookitsPuck]

I'll say they won't.

But that doesn't mean they *can't* probabilistically. 

I'd say it's like 10-20% likely to happen. Right now they're 9 games under .500. 

The low point in 2017 earlier on the season was 7 under as of July 16th. They got back to .500 on August 7th. A span of 21 games.

So it's certainly possible. It's extremely early.  An a healthy Cobb and a booted Tillman should help stabilize things. 

I just don't think it'll happen. This bullpen is the biggest problem for this club. It once was a strength. But it's a weakness now. They simply can't hold leads. You can't have a trio of awful defense, poor bullpen and subpar/non-dynamic hitting. It just isn't a recipe for success.

[Fuzzball22]

Slim and none and slim was seen leaving town.

[mdbdotcom]

Hitting .500 in mid-July could be the worst-case scenario, so I will reluctantly say, I hope not.

[Moose Milligan]

The hole is too big, and as @webbrick2010noted, they haven't been at .500 since last May.

No reason to think they can get there this year at any point.  They might get better, but not that good.

[allquixotic]

I think they could go on a tear and get to, like, 3 games under .500 several times over the season, but it's becoming more and more improbable that they'll actually hit the mark and be exactly .500. So I think right around 10%.

[foxfield]

All you pessimists...Of course it's 50-50.  How else are we going to be able to trade Hays for pitching in June?

[Natty]

It's only 20 games in. We are 6-14 .300

Last year after 20 games we were 14-6 .700.